Analysis: Interest Rates

Rates: Beautiful curves

I've had enough of recession talks! For months, economists, pessimists and market-timers have all announced the crash of the decade, but nothing yet has come. US indices remain really high. Is dumb...

Rates: 336,000 jobs created?!

One of the advantages of writing a weekly column is to be able to take a step back from the multitude of macroeconomic data available. This week, we're going to take another look at the monthly US...

Interest rates: The US 10-year hits 4.68%

One of the pillars of the current narrative is that inflation will rapidly return to around 2%, with the corollary that central banks will adopt a more accommodating stance. While recent economic...

Rates: It's the end of the party for central banks

The past two weeks have been marked by a festival of central bank activity. After the ECB, the much-anticipated Fed followed suit, before passing the torch to the central banks of Sweden, England and...

Rates: ECB raises rates for the last time

The European Central Bank soothed investors' sensibilities by raising its key rates for the tenth time to 4.5%, while warning that the breakeven point had certainly been reached. In other words, the...

Rates: a well-oiled narrative (with no room for hiccups)

In light of the latest macroeconomic statistics, investors continue to favor a central scenario based on four pillars: the end of the monetary tightening cycle, followed by a rate cut as early as...

Rates: A very narrow path

Not too hot, not too cold. Like the children's tale, Goldilocks, investors love a happy medium. In this game, the path to a soft landing for the US economy is as tortuous as it is narrow. Here's how.

Currencies: Talk about a strategy!

Following on from my weekly commentary on interest rates, I wanted once again to make the link between monetary policy and the foreign exchange market. Due to diametrically opposed policies, the...

Bonds burn on as China rate cut underwhelms

There's been little let up in this month's U.S. bond burn and China continues to fall short of what markets think is needed to stabilise its economy - making for another nervy start to the financial...

Rates: Goodbye inflation

The latest statistics from the United States have set the world alight. While the interest-rate market was logically the first to be impacted, all asset classes were equally affected, including gold,...

Rates: Caution advised

We had to wait until the sixth day of July to see a clear bearish session on the equity markets. The reason? Poor economic statistics from the four corners of the globe and more hawkish than expected...

Interest rates: In Sintra, hawks no longer scare doves

For months, we've been told that recession would soon hit the developed economies, and that we should expect the worst on the stock market. Except that, for the time being, and with all due respect to...

Rate: God Save the Queen (from inflation)

Or should I say God Save the King, which is now the official name of the English national anthem since the death of the Queen. She must be turning over in her grave at the sight of inflation which is...

Rates: Go! One last one

How about another round of tightening? Because in essence, that's the message delivered by both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in their post-announcement speeches. Let there be...

Rates: Step out of your comfort zone

For some of you, stepping out of your comfort zone may mean going to the gym, taking a dip in the pool, speaking in public or asking your boss for a raise, which in these inflationary times is...

Rates: At a crossroads

Hopes of an agreement between the Republicans and the Democrats is pushing indices and interest rates to their respective resistances at 4200 points and 3.63%. Against all odds, a breakout should be...

Rate: Keep your powder dry!

There was a time when weapons were powered by gunpowder. Black powder decomposes by deflagration if a wick lights it. What does this have to do with finance? The answer is at the end of the article.

Rates: Deal with it!

Those who were waiting for clear views on the continuation of monetary policy from two of the world's leading central banks, the Fed and the ECB, are in for a treat. So yes, when you read between the...

Rates: What will it be?

Between continued restrictive monetary policy and recessionary fears, investors are faced with a difficult choice. Perhaps the upcoming earnings season will tip the balance.