Yves Sanquer

Rates: A lesson to ponder

Over the past few days, the yield on British 10-year bonds, commonly known as Gilt, has risen to touch the symbolic 5% threshold. Fears about the ability to meet debt repayments against a backdrop of sluggish growth are a lesson for the French government.

January 13, 2025 at 10:05 am EST

Currencies: Two rooms, two atmospheres

While the rise in bond yields in the United States favors the dollar, the parallel rise in the United Kingdom is weighing on sterling. The cause is a struggling economy, which is weighing on the government's ability to balance its budget.

January 13, 2025 at 10:01 am EST

Currencies: Back to parity?

Unfortunately, there was no miracle. The Fed confirmed that a pause in its monetary easing cycle was clearly on the cards, given the continuing strength of the US economy and the risk of a return to inflation. The result: a laughing dollar and a crying euro.

January 06, 2025 at 05:42 am EST

Interest rates: Christine stays the course

As widely anticipated by the financial community, the European Central Bank cut its main key rates for the third time in a row. It has to be said that the European economy is in dire need of a monetary boost.

December 16, 2024 at 11:41 am EST

Currencies: It's very quiet

The dollar continues to benefit from favorable winds, but this does not yet call into question our consolidation scenario. Forex traders seem to be holding back, waiting to decipher the language that Jerome Powell will use this Wednesday following his interest rate decision.

December 16, 2024 at 05:43 am EST

Rates: Easing is the order of the day

Goldilocks?-style macroeconomic statistics continue to please investors, supporting the rise in equity markets on the one hand, and the easing of interest rates on the other. For the time being, fears linked to the debt wall seem to have taken a back seat.

December 09, 2024 at 05:25 am EST

Currencies: A non-event

The French political drama took center stage last week with the government's resignation after a no-confidence vote. Yet, the anticipated disaster on the CAC 40 has not materialized. The French stock market is breathing a sigh of relief, as the feared extraordinary tax on major corporate profits has not come to pass. Meanwhile, the euro is staging a modest comeback.

December 09, 2024 at 05:13 am EST

Rates: Time to shake things up

Between the two, my heart sways. Clearly, this could be the current mantra of investors, who have never been so undecided about the next steps in US monetary policy. It has to be said that Jerome Powell's latest outing didn't exactly reassure them, but is that a valid reason?

November 25, 2024 at 09:43 am EST

Currencies: Is the dollar calming down?

The appointment of Scott Bessent as head of the US Treasury could well be the catalyst to calm the dollar's ardor. Technically, the dollar is trying to make a break for it, but if you followed last week's article, you know that it's not the case. At least for the time being.

November 25, 2024 at 09:42 am EST

Rates: Ambient skepticism

And that's three. After the White House, the Republicans won the House of Representatives and the Senate, giving the future 47th President of the United States the means to develop his policies. However, relations with the US Central Bank promise to be stormy, as was the case during the previous cohabitation between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell.

November 18, 2024 at 10:17 am EST

Currencies: Targets in sight

Is the "Trump effect" starting to seize up? With US small-caps retreating, gold back on support and the dollar approaching resistance levels, it may be time to take stock. Here's a review of the forces at play and the key levels to watch.

November 18, 2024 at 10:08 am EST

Rates: This time, we're there

Donald Trump's election to a second term in office has propelled US stock markets to record highs, while pushing bond yields higher. So much so that the 10-year is now at a crossroads.

November 12, 2024 at 05:15 am EST

Currencies: The dollar soars with Trump 2.0

Donald Trump's arrival in power only reinforces the dollar's prevailing trend.

November 12, 2024 at 04:57 am EST

Rates: Top in sight?

Amidst the persistent inflation that continues to grip the United States, the forthcoming election looms with a cloud of uncertainty, further complicated by a labor market that shows signs of faltering. These factors combine to create a cacophony of economic signals that might typically argue against a reduction in interest rates. Despite this, there's a palpable sense of anticipation in the financial markets as the US 10-year Treasury yield teeters on the brink of what could be a pivotal shift.

November 04, 2024 at 05:11 am EST

Currencies: A well-deserved respite

Last week, the euro regained some of its color against the dollar, but the hardest part remains to be done on the eve of a particularly busy week, between the US elections and the US Federal Reserve meeting. It's going to be some sport!

November 04, 2024 at 05:07 am EST

Rates: Move with the MOVE

Every stock investor worth his salt knows the index of fear: the VIX. But have you heard of the MOVE, its bond market equivalent? No ? Don't panic, here's a quick refresher.

October 28, 2024 at 10:42 am EDT

Currency Crossroads: EUR/USD tests support amid market tensions

I can read here and there that the markets are at their wits' end in the face of so much uncertainty: this week's quarterly results from US heavyweights (AMZN, AAPL and MSFT) will be marked by Friday's employment report, followed by the US elections next week.

October 28, 2024 at 10:33 am EDT

Rates: Christine, Christine!

The only truly significant event of the past week was the European Central Bank's decision, once again, to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The aim is to halt an economic downturn that is already well underway. The game is far from won.

October 21, 2024 at 10:29 am EDT

Currencies: Ouch !

THEUR/USD continues its slide. Initially driven by a drastic rise in US long-term interest rates, making the greenback more attractive, this time it's the ECB's turn to fuel the slide.

October 21, 2024 at 10:23 am EDT

Currencies: No respite for the dollar

The US dollar continues to rally, helped by the resumption of US inflation and the prospect of a limited 25 basis point cut in interest rates at the next Monetary Policy Committee scheduled for early November.

October 14, 2024 at 10:34 am EDT

Rates: Between inflation and Fed minutes

The current equity market narrative has not suffered either from the US Federal Reserve's minutes or from a (small) upturn in inflation. Only long rates continue to rise, supporting the dollar by extension.

October 14, 2024 at 10:30 am EDT