At the closing bell, the Paris index retreated 0.87% to 7,701 points, ahead of Frankfurt (-1.32%) but trailing London (-0.08%), as investors remain gripped by the Middle East conflict and its share of uncertainty, reversals, hope, and confusion. While weapons have done the talking for a month, the week now ending at least allowed Washington and Tehran to establish a communication channel, reportedly through Pakistan. The CAC 40 took the opportunity to post its first weekly gain since the start of the conflict (+0.47%).

Even though negotiations have proven inconclusive so far - one need only look at the thousands of vessels waiting on either side of the Strait of Hormuz to be convinced - markets were reassured, if only for a few hours, by this diplomatic outreach.

However, Donald Trump was quick to return to his keyboard, adding further confusion to an already murky situation.

Rhyming Tweets with Strategic Ambiguity

A devotee of untimely social media posts, the U.S. President announced yesterday in decidedly undiplomatic language that Iranian negotiators were "begging" him for a deal. "They better get serious fast, before it's too late, because once it happens, there is NO GOING BACK, and it won't be pretty!", he hammered home.

Whether intentional or not, the U.S. President is maintaining a degree of ambiguity, claiming on one hand that negotiations are going "very well" while letting it be known on the other that thousands of U.S. troops are en route to the Gulf.

"It is entirely possible that Trump's claims regarding negotiating progress are merely a smokescreen designed to buy time while he assembles troops for an offensive. It is also possible that Iran is actually more committed to seeking a deal and ending the conflict than it is currently letting on," notes Mark Dowding, Chief Investment Officer at RBC BlueBay.

France remains vigilant, reminding observers yesterday that over 5,000 soldiers are deployed in the Near and Middle East. The executive also plans an additional 8.5 billion euros in ammunition orders over 2026-2030, on top of the 16 billion euros already approved. Not forgetting the Russian threat, Paris announced the deployment of four Rafale jets and a hundred airmen to the Siauliai air base in Lithuania, starting tomorrow.

Macroeconomic Consequences

Far from reassuring markets, the confusion surrounding the Middle East situation has triggered a fresh surge in oil prices, with Brent now trading above 110 USD per barrel (+5.5%, 111.8 USD) as the Strait of Hormuz remains ostensibly blocked. This stress is also reflected in the spike of the VIX (+8%), which is approaching the 30-point mark.

On the macroeconomic front, the rise in prices is beginning to take its toll. Inflation accelerated sharply in Spain, with consumer prices rising 3.3% in March 2026, a one-point jump from February's 2.3%.

Furthermore, across the Channel, retail sales volumes decreased by 0.4% in February 2026, following a 2% jump in January.

Finally, in the United States, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell in March. It came in at 53.3 points, against expectations of 53.5 and following 56.6 the previous month.

Corporate Moves

Pernod Ricard posted the best performance on the CAC 40 (+7.94%) after confirming yesterday evening that it is in discussions with the American firm Brown-Forman, owner of Jack Daniel's whiskey, regarding a potential "merger of equals" - a project that has nonetheless drawn mixed reactions from analysts.

Alstom (-0.5%) has secured a 915 million euro turnkey contract for the construction of Line 1 of the Belgrade Metro, Serbia's first fully automated network.

The Italian Competition Authority (AGCM) has opened two investigations into Sephora Italia and its partners within the LVMH group (-0.5%) for unfair commercial practices targeting minors. At issue is a marketing strategy deemed misleading, relying on very young micro-influencers to sell adult cosmetics to children and adolescents.

Oddo BHF also announced a downward revision of its price target for LVMH from 695 to 583 euros, explaining that it still anticipates a very gradual improvement in the French luxury giant's business activity.

Elsewhere in Europe, BASF gained 2.7%, far ahead of Siemens Energy (-3.9%) and Rheinmetall (-4.4%).