Excluding dividends, the share price in May 2026 stands at the same level as ten years ago, notwithstanding a now-exhausted post-pandemic rebound and the chronic struggles of the industry's number two, the American firm Sabre. The latter, significantly less well-managed than Amadeus, was on the brink of bankruptcy before Constellation Software stepped in.
Amadeus has not been spared by the AI wave, or at least its perceived effects, and fears that airlines might decide to insource their IT capabilities—an unlikely prospect given their financial standing—or "vibe code" their booking interfaces, an even more far-fetched hypothesis.
Yet Amadeus posted record results last year, with revenue reaching €6.5bn, €2bn more than a decade earlier, with operating profit of €1.8bn, compared to €1.2bn in 2016.
Dividend distributions, amply covered by cash flow, reached €615m, supplemented by a massive €1.3bn share buyback. While the latter was largely debt-funded, it did not compromise a balance sheet that remains very well capitalized.
At ten times EBITDA, a level last seen during the pandemic, the board considers the stock undervalued. The group's track record supports this view: over fifteen years, earnings per share have increased ninefold, from €0.33 to €3.04, while the dividend per share has quintupled, from €0.30 to €1.54.
Adding to investor anxiety is an inevitably tense short-term environment, driven by soaring jet fuel prices that could trigger a slump in bookings and cause the aviation sector to stumble once again. The CFO of Amadeus recently addressed these concerns directly.
However, as we wrote last week, the market capitalization of European leader Lufthansa is strangely still flying above the turbulence, though it remains unclear whether this reflects sound composure or pure recklessness.
For now, Amadeus also remains airborne, as evidenced by its solid quarterly results published last Friday, showing a 3.1% revenue increase compared to the same period last year and, unsurprisingly, a renewed share buyback program.
