Berenberg addresses the stock's 7% year-to-date decline, attributing it primarily to Middle East exposure amid heightened regional tensions. This situation has prompted a downward revision of forecasts, with an estimated impact of 40 million euros and a 3% reduction in 2026 EBITDA.
According to the broker, Accor's exposure—representing 8% of rooms and approximately 10% of revenue—makes it particularly sensitive, with a projected 60-70% RevPAR shock in the United Arab Emirates. However, profit protection measures are expected to partially mitigate these effects.
The note also highlights the disposal of the stake in Ennismore, which could reach 975 million euros, providing support for share buybacks. Finally, valuation remains attractive in the analyst's view, with the stock trading at a discount relative to its peers.
Accor is the No. 1 European hotel group. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- operating hotels under management contract (70.9%; HotelServices);
- owned and leased hotel management (29.1%). In addition, the group offers a business of renting luxury private residences, as well as providing digital services to independent hoteliers, concierge services, etc.
At the end of 2025, the group operates a network of more than 5,600 hotels distributed between luxury and top-range hotels (Raffles, Fairmont, Sofitel, Pullman, MGallery, Swissotel, Grand Mercure, Mövenpick, The Sebel and Rixos names), mid-range hotels (Novotel, Novotel Suites, Mercure, adagio, Mama Shlter and Tribe), and economy hotels (ibis, ibis Styles, ibis budget, adagio access, hotelF1, Formule 1, Jo&Joe, Breakfree and Greet).
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Investor
Investor
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Global
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ESG MSCI
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