Canada’s freight scene was a tariff-induced headache in 2025.

Back in FY 25, those 25% US tariffs on Canadian goods triggered a “freight recession”, which saw cross-border tonnage take a 15% drop in April that year, as per industry data from Loadlink's Canadian Spot Freight Index. Cross-border volumes sluped roughly 22% in May 2025.

This forced companies to ditch their old habits for "just-in-case" (i.e. safety stock) logistics strategies to keep things moving.

The Canadian National Railway Company felt the sting too, reporting that tariffs and trade uncertainty slashed 2025 revenues by over CAD 350m. To stay ahead, the rail giant leaned hard on its Intermodal segment—long-haul transportation of shipping containers and trailers—to catch the wave of the retail and e-commerce surge.

The company managed a modest 1% increase in Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) to 238,159 million from 235,538 million RTM in FY 24. Their fuel efficiency stayed steady at 0.873 US gallons per 1,000 gross ton miles (GTMs), showing they're holding the line despite the drama.

Weathering the storm

That operational performance set the stage for impressive numbers on the balance sheet. The company managed to grow their total revenue by 2%, landing at a cool CAD 17.3bn, up from CAD 17.0bn. The firm was efficient too, pulling in CAD 4.72bn in net income—a solid 6% rise from the previous year. It also walked away with CAD 3.34bn in free cash flow, 8% above the level in 2024.

Their Intermodal business took the top spot late in the year, with revenue surging 10% in just the final quarter. On the flip side, Metals and Minerals had a rougher time, dropping 4% in Q4 because of production hiccups and lower sales.

Management said that while most segments did great, tariff-related losses limited total annual revenue growth to just 2%. The Canadian National Railway Company is playing it safe for FY 26, cutting costs and buying back its own stock to stay profitable while dealing with that CAD 350m tariff bill.

Green light

The Canadian National Railway Company stock is humming along with a 12.9% gain over the last year, recently trading at CAD 140. For context, its 52-week high stands at CAD 154.6. With a massive market cap of CAD 91bn (about USD 66.7bn), it remains a sector heavyweight.

Investors will be heartened to know that the forward P/E multiple of 18.9x (based on 2026 earnings) is sitting a bit below its 3-year historical average of 19.4x, suggesting there might still be some room to run.

Analysts are generally optimistic, with 15 "Buys" and 13 "Holds" out of 30 ratings, with an average target price of CAD 154.15, representing just 3.4% upside potential from current levels.

Traffic troubles

Investing in Canadian National Railway comes with its own set of risks. The most obvious one is the new tariffs on Canadian steel, lumber and cars hitting revenues. Then there’s the unpredictable weather. Even with a massive CAD 3bn investment in its 2025-2026 Winter Plan, wildfires and floods still threaten to shut down key tracks.

Labor relations also stay rocky; despite new contracts, disputes over fatigue and scheduling can still trigger sudden network freezes. Toss in the risk of cyberattacks on their fancy new automated systems, and you’ve got a lot of moving parts to watch.