The arrival of the Saadé family at Carrefour, replacing the Diniz family (Peninsula holding company), has not sparked much excitement: the retailer's stock rose 1.7% to €13.50. Over the past year, the share price has fluctuated between €11.58 and €15.14. Note that €11.58 is also the lowest price in the last ten years, with the share price therefore struggling to take off. We need to go back five years to find it above €20.
Peninsula's exit is a little more complex than it appears. Geoffroy Michalet (Oddo BHF) explains that the holding company owned 8.5% of the capital as of last June, and that the shares were pledged to banks. If the Saadés bought back 4%, it was possibly from these institutions, which still hold around 4.5% of the capital. This could be the subject of a subsequent investment.
As for the Saadés' intentions, they raise questions. Michalet sees no synergy with CMA CGM. The new entrants could strengthen their position, which would send a positive signal, but the market has swallowed too many bitter pills on this issue to believe in a fairy tale from the outset.
Even including dividends, it's sluggish...
Carrefour's stockmarket performance has been mediocre over the last five years and clearly disappointing over the long term, even when dividends are included. The story may be changing slightly with the sale of certain struggling international assets, but fierce competition on the French market offers little hope of a spectacular turnaround.
The ins and outs of Carrefour's difficulties have not changed much, although a dividend yield of over 7% helps to sweeten the pill for those who are stuck with the stock.
