In 2025, Casino reported revenue of 8.26 billion euros, down slightly on a reported basis but broadly stable on a like-for-like basis, supported by the resilience of its convenience banners, notably Monoprix and Franprix.

The group notably demonstrated a sharp improvement in profitability. Adjusted EBITDA reached 655 million euros, while EBITDA after leases jumped to 198 million euros, allowing recurring operating income to return to positive territory. This progress is the result of a deep restructuring, characterized by a reduction in the store network, procurement optimization, and strict cost control.

Despite this operational turnaround, the financial situation remains precarious. Casino posted a net loss of 402 million euros and net debt close to 1.5 billion euros. Furthermore, liquidity, while still near 1 billion euros, has eroded significantly over the past year.

The group has secured a reprieve from its creditors until the end of May 2026 to finalize a major financial restructuring, including a capital hike and debt reduction. An agreement is expected by the end of June.

In this context, the "Renouveau 2030" strategic plan, which aims for a return to growth, remains contingent on the outcome of this restructuring, which is expected to result in significant dilution for existing shareholders.

For 2026, Casino anticipates a sharp rebound, with EBITDA after leases expected at 309 million euros and a return to slightly positive free cash flow. These targets are deemed ambitious by Oddo BHF, which maintains its underperform rating on the stock with a price target of 0.05 euros, citing a still uncertain environment and heightened competition.

For its part, AlphaValue believes that despite covenant compliance and the extension of maturities to late May 2026, uncertainties persist. The research firm considers a financial restructuring increasingly likely given the debt levels, the weight of financial charges, and the substantial maturities looming in 2027, leading to a risk of significant dilution and pressure on valuation.