Tehran's decision to once again close the Strait of Hormuz, just two days after announcing its reopening to maritime traffic, is expected to drive investors toward risk-off sentiment this Monday. Yesterday's seizure of an Iranian-flagged cargo ship by the U.S. Navy has further exacerbated these tensions.

The Strait of Hormuz returns to the forefront of concerns

Reflecting investor caution over a potential escalation of the conflict on the eve of the expiration of the fifteen-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran, oil prices are rising sharply amid renewed geopolitical friction and fears of crude supply disruptions.

Brent is currently up 5.6% at 95.4 dollars per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is gaining over 6%, trading above 88.9 dollars.

Relative resilience in Asia

Surprisingly, these developments have not triggered a surge in risk aversion across Asian markets. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index managed to advance 0.7% by the end of Monday's session, as did the Hang Seng (+0.6%) in Hong Kong and the CSI 300 index of mainland Chinese blue chips (+0.5%).

"I believe markets now view tensions in the Gulf as 'chronic' rather than sudden shocks, which reduces their immediate impact on prices," explained one trader.

"In other words, geopolitical risks have not disappeared, but they are already partially priced in, limiting their ability to trigger the sharp movements we have seen in the past," he added.

Wall Street expected in the red

Safe-haven assets such as the yen or gold are not seeing particularly strong demand, yet U.S. index futures currently point to a lower opening on Wall Street.

The dollar, a traditional safe haven during periods of tension, is appreciating by more than 0.2% against the yen and nearly 0.1% against the euro, which is retreating toward its 1.1750 support level.

News from the Middle East is expected to overshadow other developments at the start of what promises to be a heavy week for the markets.

In the United States, the first-quarter earnings season - which is about to enter its peak - risks testing an equity market that has returned to its highs despite persistent global geopolitical tensions.

Tesla and IBM are set to report their results on Wednesday. Other earnings are expected later in the week, notably from Intel, American Express, and P&G.

On the macroeconomic front, U.S. retail sales figures for March, due tomorrow, will be closely monitored to gauge the extent of the energy shock's impact on American consumption.