Energy: Oil prices are recording a further increase. In a symbolic move, US WTI crossed the $100 threshold to settle at around $102. Donald Trump, however, claims on social media that the United States is making diplomatic progress with Iran. However, this is not enough for investors, who view these messages as a political strategy to lower fuel prices. Military reality shows an escalation instead: Washington is massing thousands of troops in the region, Houthi rebels are entering the conflict and could disrupt maritime transport in the Red Sea, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Prices still have a significant risk premium, which is expected to last, given the diplomatic deadlock: the United States proposed a 15-point peace plan, which was rejected by Iran, which is imposing its own demands (security guarantees and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz). Indeed, the threat of military escalation remains high. Donald Trump is also considering the use of ground forces to take control of Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil terminal. Since the start of the conflict, Brent prices have risen by 50%.
Metals: Aluminum is becoming the center of attention in the metals market. Iranian strikes have hit several major producers in the Middle East. Its price has risen by 6% to approach the $3500 per tonne mark in London. The Middle East represents about 10% of global aluminum production. Conversely, gold and copper are not benefiting from these tensions. Gold even fell back below $4500 per ounce last week. High oil prices are fueling fears of lasting inflation. Consequently, markets estimate that the US Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates anytime soon. High rates make gold less attractive, as the metal generates no yield. The same dynamic is seen in copper, which has shed about 7% since the beginning of the month. Investors fear that expensive energy and high interest rates will dampen global economic growth and reduce demand for industrial metals. Copper is trading at $12,195 (spot price) in London.
Agricultural Products: Grain prices are generally trending higher. Wheat is up to 607 cents per bushel, as are corn and soybeans at 469 and 1176 cents respectively (May 2026 contracts). Corn and soybeans are used to produce biofuels. Their prices therefore closely track the oil market.
