EMEA Morning Briefing : Trump Says U.S. Will Be Leaving Iran 'Very Soon'

MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Manufacturing PMI data for EU, U.K., France, Germany, Italy; EU unemployment; no major corporate trading updates expected

Opening Call:

European stock futures gained in tandem with a rise in Asian stocks. U.S. Treasurys edged lower; the dollar weakened; gold and oil rose.

Equities:

European equity futures were tracking higher early Wednesday after President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the U.S. would leave Iran in two to three weeks. Trump plans to deliver a speech on Wednesday evening to provide "an important update on Iran," according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is ready to end the conflict but wants unspecified guarantees.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said. Emirati diplomats have urged the U.S. and military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to open the strait by force, a U.A.E official said.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly amid risk-on sentiment. "While markets are likely to build on [Tuesday's] momentum, a trap remains a possibility for those seeking to overextend their bets into the Good Friday long weekend," DBS Group Research's Philip Wee said.

"Media continues to report U.S. troops rushing to the Middle East, raising questions about whether the off-ramp is another tactical smoke screen," the senior currency strategist noted.

Bonds:

U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, remain a good hedge, said Amundi analysts. Amid uncertainty over the impact of the Middle East war on inflation and growth, Amundi sees a greater need for hedging and tactical risk reduction.

It's important for investors to diversify their portfolios using inflation-linked instruments, government bonds, and commodities, they said. This is also because "correlations between bonds and equities are shifting."

Energy:

Oil futures rose on a likely technical recovery. Prices are being driven more by diplomatic signals than physical flows, Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said.

Unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, investors will likely continue to buy the dip. The conflict is constraining supply faster than demand can adjust, she said.

Even after a potential ceasefire, shipping costs and tanker movements will likely take time to return to normal levels. The actual damage to oil infrastructure will also be assessed only afterward, she added.

Metals:

Gold edged higher on signs of de-escalating Middle East tensions. Middle East news reports said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian could be willing to consider ending the war, given certain requirements are met.

If geopolitical tensions de-escalate or growth concerns resurface, expectations for Fed easing could return, OCBC Group Research said. In such a scenario, real yields would likely fall, providing support for gold, they added.

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Copper rose. Sentiment in the market for the base metal has been lifted by Chinese economic data, ANZ Research analysts said. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index for March rose to 50.4 from February's 49.0. "Export order numbers in March suggest that external demand will remain supportive," ANZ said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

China Manufacturing Gauge Shows Slower Expansion in Activity

A private gauge of China's manufacturing activity eased from a five-year high in March, though it stayed in expansionary territory amid rising price and supply pressures.

The RatingDog general manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.8 in March from 52.1 in February, according to a statement released on Wednesday.

The Year Is Off to the Strongest Start for Big Deals Ever

Large corporate deals had their best quarterly showing ever, as companies forged ahead with tie-ups and investments despite the Iran war rattling markets.

So far in 2026, 22 transactions valued at $10 billion or more have been announced globally-a record quarterly number, according to LSEG data. The next-closest quarter was the fourth quarter of 2015, when 21 such deals were announced.

U.A.E. Wants to Force Hormuz Open and Is Willing to Join the Fight

The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks.

The U.A.E. is lobbying for a United Nations Security Council resolution that would authorize such action, the officials said. Emirati diplomats have urged the U.S. and military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to open the strait by force, a U.A.E official said, adding that the Iranian regime thinks it is fighting for its existence and is willing to bring the global economy down with it in a chokehold on the strait.

Hegseth Doubles Down on Iran Pressure

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the coming days of the war with Iran will be decisive, adding that the U.S. would "negotiate with bombs" until Tehran relinquishes its ambitions.

"Iran knows that, and there's almost nothing they can militarily do about it," he said at a briefing on Tuesday.

Nike Guides for Sales Declines Ahead as Turnaround Plan Hits Snags

Nike's comeback is hitting some bumps, with the sneaker company projecting sales declines ahead, including a sharp drop in its key China market.

The company said on Tuesday that it expects sales to fall by low-single digits from now through the end of 2026, with a 2% to 4% decline in the current fiscal fourth quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had forecast a 1.9% increase this quarter.

Oracle Lays Off Workers Amid Heavy AI Investment

Oracle began to significantly reduce its workforce Tuesday while it continues to build out costly data centers for artificial-intelligence development.

The cloud-computing and database company is cutting jobs across its business lines, according to employees and several posts on LinkedIn. On social media, workers who said they were based in the U.S. and India posted about their positions being eliminated.

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Expected Major Events for Wednesday

00:01/IRL: Mar Ireland Manufacturing PMI

05:00/NED: Mar Netherlands Manufacturing PMI

06:30/SWI: Feb Retail Sales

07:00/CZE: 4Q LFSS Employment & Unemployment

07:00/POL: Mar Poland Manufacturing PMI

07:00/TUR: Mar Turkey Manufacturing PMI

07:15/SPN: Mar Spain Manufacturing PMI

07:30/CZE: Mar Czech Republic Manufacturing PMI

07:30/SWI: Mar procure.ch Purchasing Managers' Index

07:45/ITA: Mar Italy Manufacturing PMI

07:50/FRA: Mar France Manufacturing PMI

07:55/GER: Mar Germany Manufacturing PMI

08:00/GRE: Mar Greece Manufacturing PMI

08:00/EU: Mar Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

08:00/ITA: Feb Unemployment

08:00/GER: ifo Joint Economic Forecast of German economic research institutes

08:30/UK: Mar S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI

08:30/UK: Mar Narrow money (Notes & Coin) and reserve balances

09:00/GRE: Feb Labour Force Survey

09:00/EU: Feb Unemployment

10:00/IRL: Mar Monthly Unemployment

16:59/AUT: Mar Unemployment figures

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-01-26 0015ET