European stock markets are expected to open without a clear trend on Wednesday morning, as equity markets remain supported by hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East, even though the United States and Iran still appear far from reaching an agreement on the terms of a lasting peace treaty. According to early indications, the CAC 40 could start the session down 0.2%, as could the Euro STOXX 50. The German DAX, meanwhile, is expected to edge slightly higher (+0.1%).

The hope of a resumption of talks with Tehran, sparked by Donald Trump, is still perceived as a new sign of de-escalation. According to the American president, Iran has "reached out" to him and is "keen to reach a deal" following the failure of the Islamabad discussions.

The billionaire reportedly told the New York Post that new negotiations could begin within 48 hours, again in Pakistan.

Investors are also welcoming the free passage of numerous merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours. The Navy has not sought to board them, contrary to the threats made by Trump during the implementation of his blockade in the area.

The "glass half full" scenario prevails

The market still seems to favor an optimistic reading of the situation, opting, as is often the case, for the "glass half full" scenario. The conclusion of a ceasefire and its precarious maintenance have been enough to reduce the probability of the most pessimistic outcomes.

"It was probably not to be expected that a single round of discussions would immediately lead to results," points out Paul Diggle, chief economist at Aberdeen.

"The mere holding of face-to-face negotiations already constitutes progress," the analyst judges.

Indices erase the scars of conflict

In a sign of a return to calm on the markets, the CAC 40 has now erased a very large part of its war-related losses. It is currently trading less than 3.8% away from its all-time high of over 8,642.2 points, reached on February 26.

"Equities have remained relatively resilient since the start of the conflict and, as economic fundamentals in the US and globally have improved since the beginning of the year, we see further upside potential for equities in the medium term," says Philipp Bärtschi, Chief Investment Officer at Bank J. Safra Sarasin.

"Oil-exposed sectors should lead the rebound in the short term, while the technology sector and emerging market equities should take over in the medium term," the strategist predicts.

Historic streak for the Nasdaq, black gold stalls

The relief surrounding Iran is also perceptible on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq (+2%) managed to notch its 10th consecutive winning session yesterday, a feat not seen since November 2021.

The oil sector, however, is expected to remain penalized by the consolidation of crude prices amid hopes of lower tensions in the Middle East.

Black gold, which had climbed to near four-year highs at the beginning of the month, is starting to see profit-taking in anticipation of an easing of tensions on the Iranian issue.

The downward revision of global demand growth forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has also reinforced expectations of more moderate consumption.

US light crude (WTI) is down 0.1% to 91.1 dollars this morning, compared to a peak of over 117 dollars last week, while Brent is edging up 0.8% to 95.6 dollars.

ASML penalized despite raising annual targets

Investors must also digest the mixed results published this morning by ASML, the Dutch giant of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

While the technology group posted better-than-expected first-quarter performance and subsequently raised its annual forecasts due to continued solid demand, it also reported second-quarter targets that fell short of expectations.

The New York-listed shares dropped more than 2.2% in electronic trading following the release.