(Corrects to "could affect" from "this affects" and clarifies that 3.5% figure refers to electric power generation, in paragraph 7)

TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - Japan may face a power supply crunch if the Middle East crisis drags on and liquefied natural gas shipments remain disrupted, just as air-conditioning demand rises during the Japanese summer, an analyst at a leading energy think tank said on Monday.

Takafumi Yanagisawa, executive analyst at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), said that a prolonged conflict could also delay the start of additional supplies expected by Japan from 2028 from new projects in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

* Japan takes delivery of some 4 million metric tons of LNGannually - or 6% of its total LNG imports - via the Strait ofHormuz, which has been effectively closed due to the Iran war. * In 2024, Qatar and the UAE accounted for 4% and 2%respectively of Japan's LNG imports passing through the strait,Yanagisawa said. * Japan's biggest LNG supplier is Australia, although italso buys from Malaysia, the U.S., Russia and other countries. * LNG from Qatar and the UAE provide about 3.5% of Japan'selectric power, Yanagisawa said. * "As this could affect what is known as the power reservemargin, a 3.5% in electric power generation is by no means smallas we head into summer months," he said. * Just under 60% of Japan's LNG imports are used forelectric power generation and the rest for city gas and othersupplies. * For now, utilities are buying additional volumes on thespot market and utilising the upper quantity tolerance (UQT) ofexisting contracts with suppliers such as Australia and theUnited States, Yanagisawa said. Under UQT, supply can beincreased by around 10% of the contracted volume, subject tomutual agreement. * Qatar's LNG facilities were damaged by Iranian attacks,with repairs to affected sections potentially taking up to fiveyears. Even if the blockade of the strait is lifted, reduced LNGexports from Qatar are likely to persist for some time, andexpansion projects could be delayed, Yanagisawa said. * Prior to the Middle East crisis, some expected the globalLNG market to face a supply surplus by 2030, but that view isbecoming increasingly difficult to sustain, he added.

(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Susan Fenton)

By Yuka Obayashi