U.S. and Iranian forces traded fire near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, briefly rattling markets and putting pressure on the fragile ceasefire narrative. As usual, both sides blamed each other for escalating tensions. President Donald Trump, eager to contain the conflict ahead of a critical political stretch, reiterated that the ceasefire remains in place while warning Tehran that delaying a peace agreement could trigger a “knockout” response from Washington. The tone was firmer than diplomatic, though still short of some of his harsher past rhetoric. Markets, which had rallied earlier this week on hopes of a quick resolution, are now reassessing how durable any agreement may actually be.

Global equities pulled back, with European markets broadly down more than 1%, while Wall Street held up better. The S&P 500 slipped just 0.4%, helped once again by relentless enthusiasm around anything tied to artificial intelligence. In today’s market, AI momentum continues to overpower nearly every other theme. Datadog jumped 31% after raising guidance, reinforcing the idea that investors are rewarding growth and AI exposure above all else.

The pace of capital flowing into AI is becoming extraordinary. Anthropic, still privately held, has become one of the clearest examples. Investors valued the company at roughly $61.5 billion in March 2025, then around $183 billion by September 2025, before pushing that figure to approximately $380 billion in February 2026. Now, only a few months later, reports suggest new funding discussions could imply a valuation near $1 trillion. The surge reflects growing belief that models like Claude are evolving beyond chatbots into systems capable of coding, automation, cybersecurity tasks, autonomous operations, and replacing significant portions of white-collar workflows.

Under those conditions, traditional value investing is struggling to compete for attention. The 2026 market environment increasingly resembles previous speculative waves, with investors chasing AI exposure at almost any price while paying less attention to risk management or fundamentals.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to keep oil prices supported after their recent decline stalled. Washington is also dealing with mounting domestic complications. A US court struck down the administration’s proposed 10% replacement tariffs, forcing the White House to look for alternative trade measures. At the same time, the administration delayed planned tariff increases on European autos, giving the European Union until July 4 to finalize a broader trade agreement.

Attention now shifts to today’s US Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, the final major event of the trading week. Recent economic data suggests the labor market remains resilient despite growing discussions around AI-driven job displacement. So far, the economy appears capable of absorbing the early stages of that transition.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg estimates Japan likely spent another $30 billion intervening in currency markets to support the yen, adding to roughly $34 billion deployed earlier in the year.

Across Asia-Pacific, markets are easing back after a strong recent run. Australia fell 1.5%, while most regional indexes posted milder declines. South Korea continues to stand out, with the KOSPI nearly flat this morning and on track for a fifth straight weekly gain. European markets are expected to open lower today, even as U.S. futures trade modestly higher.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: Germany’s trade balance; several Fed speeches throughout the day; in the United States, manufacturing payrolls, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, labor participation rate, Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, wholesale inventories, and Baker Hughes rig counts; in Canada, the unemployment rate; and in China overnight, exports, imports, and trade balance data. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97.89
  • Gold: $4,725
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $100 (WTI) $94.63
  • United States 10 years: 4.374%
  • BITCOIN: $80,030

In corporate news:

  • Akamai Technologies surged 26% in premarket trading after announcing a $1.8 billion long-term cloud computing agreement with a provider, offsetting weak second-quarter guidance tied to rising memory infrastructure costs across the sector.
  • Airbnb said it expects slower growth in booked nights during the second quarter compared with the previous quarter due to travel disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. The stock fell 1% after hours.
  • Anthropic is reportedly exploring a fundraising round worth tens of billions of dollars this summer to finance a major expansion of computing capacity, which could push its valuation close to $1 trillion and help it pull ahead of rival OpenAI, according to the Financial Times.
  • Block climbed 7.6% in premarket trading after the Jack Dorsey-led fintech raised its full-year profit forecast, supported by resilient consumer spending and strong growth in its core businesses.
  • Cloudflare dropped 17% in premarket trading after reporting quarterly revenue below expectations and announcing plans to cut about 20% of its global workforce, representing more than 1,100 jobs.
  • Coinbase Global reported a second consecutive quarterly loss as crypto market volatility weighed on trading volumes during a broader digital asset selloff. Shares were down around 5% in premarket trading and have lost nearly 15% since the start of 2026.
  • CoreWeave fell 6.2% in premarket trading after the cloud infrastructure company announced higher capital expenditures driven by rising component costs.
  • Devon Energy said its board approved an $8 billion share buyback program, one week after activist investor Kimmeridge called for higher shareholder returns.
  • Expedia Group forecast current-quarter gross bookings below Wall Street expectations as the Middle East conflict pressured travel demand. Shares dropped 8% in premarket trading.
  • Lyft forecast second-quarter gross bookings and adjusted profit above Wall Street expectations, despite first-quarter ride volumes missing estimates due to severe winter storms across the U.S.
  • Mattel shareholder Southeastern Asset Management urged CEO Ynon Kreiz to explore strategic alternatives, including taking the toy maker private or pursuing a merger with rival Hasbro, amid weak demand.
  • Microchip Technology rose 3% in premarket trading after forecasting first-quarter revenue above analyst expectations. The broader chip sector was also expected to rebound following Thursday’s selloff, with Qualcomm and Nvidia indicated higher at the open.
  • Super Micro Computer was mentioned in a Bloomberg report alleging that a company tied to Thailand’s AI initiatives may have helped smuggle billions of dollars worth of servers equipped with advanced Nvidia chips into China.
  • The Trade Desk fell about 13% in premarket trading after forecasting second-quarter revenue below analyst expectations.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Affirm Holdings: Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its overweight rating and raised the price target from $61 to $80
  • Airbnb: Evercore ISI maintained its outperform rating and raised the price target from $145 to $155.
  • Akamai Technologies: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintained its overweight rating and raised the price target from $120 to $195.
  • Bio-Techne: Deutsche Bank maintained its buy rating and lowered the price target from $75 to $66.
  • Block: RBC Capital maintained its outperform rating and raised the price target from $90 to $93.
  • Citigroup: Morgan Stanley maintained its overweight rating and raised the price target from $144 to $154.
  • Cloudflare: Piper Sandler maintained its overweight rating and raised the price target from $222 to $250.
  • Curtiss-Wright: Stifel maintained its hold rating and raised the price target from $723 to $724.
  • Globus Medical: Jefferies maintained its buy rating and raised the price target from $120 to $122.
  • HubSpot: RBC Capital maintained its outperform rating and lowered the price target from $400 to $350.
  • Microchip Technology: TD Cowen maintained its hold rating and raised the price target from $70 to $105.
  • MP Materials: Canaccord Genuity maintained its buy rating and raised the price target from $79 to $82.
  • Paylocity Holding: UBS maintained its neutral rating and raised the price target from $114 to $115.
  • Texas Roadhouse: Morgan Stanley maintained its overweight rating and raised the price target from $199 to $201.
  • The Trade Desk: KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the stock to sector weight from overweight.
  • Viatris: Jefferies maintained its buy rating and raised the price target from $17 to $20.
  • The Walt Disney Company: GF Securities maintained its buy rating and lowered the price target from $127.17 to $124.20.
  • Warner Music Group: UBS maintained its buy rating and raised the price target from $40 to $42.