Nicolas Dutreuil (Deputy CEO), whom Oddo BHF analysts recently met, appeared confident and composed regarding Gecina's major redevelopment projects. Following this meeting, Oddo BHF maintains its Outperform rating on the stock with a price target of 98 euros.
In its research note, Oddo BHF highlighted that: 1) redevelopment costs (YoC 5.8%) were largely secured prior to the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East; 2) half of the square footage to be marketed in 2025 consists of renewals securing leases maturing between 2025 and 2028; and 3) Gecina believes it is seeing strong rental momentum for its projects, bolstering its confidence in maintaining a strategy focused on maximizing future rents.
Analysts will monitor the impact of the Middle East conflict on Gecina's leasing activity in the first quarter of 2026.
According to Oddo BHF, management remains unconcerned, citing its track record and the recent example of 2024, which saw a slowdown due to the Paris Olympics but was followed by record leasing activity in 2025.
Oddo BHF believes that implementing a share buyback (SBB) strategy in the short term might nonetheless require one or more prior disposals to preserve the company's balance sheet ratios (S&P rating of A-).
Analysts indicate that the current share price offers an attractive entry point. "Gecina maintains solid fundamentals should the current environment persist, thanks to a high-quality, liquid portfolio and a robust balance sheet that management successfully navigated during the recent rate hike cycle (i.e., a relatively stable LTV despite a 15% decline in asset values between mid-2022 and late 2023)."
Gecina is a leading French real estate company. Gross rental income breaks down by type of asset as follows:
- offices and commercial spaces (84.6%);
- residential buildings (15.4%).
At the end of 2025, the group's real estate holdings amounted, in market value, to EUR 17.6 billion distributed between offices and commercial spaces (83.7%), residential buildings (16.1%) and other (0.2%).
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