The world's second-largest spirits maker after Britain's Diageo saw its revenue reach 1,945 million euros in its fiscal third quarter, representing organic growth of 0.1%, outperforming the 0.5% decline expected by analysts.

By way of comparison, activity had fallen by 5% organically in the second quarter and by 7.6% in the first quarter on the same basis.

On a reported basis, revenue for the owner of Absolut vodka, Jameson whiskey, and Malibu liqueur fell by 14.6% between January and March.

Contrasting geographical performances

In Europe, its largest global market, the French group returned to growth during the quarter, with sales increasing by 1% on an organic basis, driven by solid performances from Bumbu rum, Perrier-Jouët champagne, and Jameson.

In the United States, which accounts for 19% of its business, revenue contracted by 12% in organic terms, a performance that was nevertheless better than expected, given that the consensus anticipated a decline of around 16%.

Furthermore, momentum proved very solid in India, its third-largest global market with 13% of sales, still driven by its local whiskies Royal Stag and Blenders Pride, which are highly popular with consumers. Organic growth there reached 11% over the quarter, a figure deemed "encouraging" by analysts.

China, meanwhile, declined by 7%, affected by a persistently difficult economic context with low consumer morale and a tightened regulatory environment, even though the trend benefited from a later Chinese New Year.

These figures, considered solid by analysts, were met with a lukewarm reception on the stock market, where the share price gained 0.1% around 10:30 AM, trading in the middle of a CAC 40 index that was up 0.3% at the same time.

Annual targets revised slightly downwards, without much surprise

This improvement in performance was, however, offset by slightly more cautious forecasts, with the group now anticipating an organic revenue decline of between 3% and 4% for the full year due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and an environment that remains "volatile and uncertain."

These outlooks were, however, already priced in by the market, as Pernod had previously warned that its 2025/26 fiscal year would be a "transition year."

The Brown-Forman case more than ever at the center of concerns

The group, which aims to preserve its organic operating margin as much as possible, notably through strict cost control and the execution of its operational efficiency program, did not address the issue of its proposed merger with Brown-Forman, the owner of Jack Daniel's, which was mentioned at the end of March.

Closely monitored by the market, this matter saw a notable development last night, as the Sazerac group reportedly offered to buy Brown-Forman at a price of 32 dollars per share, or nearly 15 billion dollars.

For comparison, the stock closed at a price of approximately 29.6 dollars last night.

"The question arises as to whether this is truly serious or if Brown-Forman is looking to drive up the bidding," the teams at Oddo BHF wondered this morning.

At Jefferies, there is also agreement that today's debate will essentially revolve around the relevance of the project and Pernod Ricard's ability not to overpay for the transaction, as the group strives to demonstrate discipline in its capital allocation.

"We maintain our position," the American broker emphasized this morning. "For the Brown-Forman family, a tie-up with Pernod would represent the ideal option, as it would allow them to retain control within the new entity," Jefferies stated.

"But beware of the downside: competitive pressures could push Pernod to raise the stakes, posing a risk of an 'over-bid' likely to weigh on the share price in the short term," the broker warned.