After a four-day closure for the Easter holidays, CAC 40 index futures point to a 0.1% gain at the open, while Frankfurt (-0.1%) and London (+0.2%) show contrasting trends.

The overall climate remains unfavorable for risk assets due to persistent tensions in the Gulf, largely fueled yesterday by a series of virulent statements from Donald Trump.

During a press conference at the White House, the New York billionaire warned that "all of" Iran could be destroyed "in a single night" if the country does not agree to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM tonight (New York time, or 2:00 AM in Paris).

As the conflict enters its 40th day, the U.S. President notably emphasized that the destruction of Iranian power plants and bridges could "happen in four hours if we want it to."

An insoluble geopolitical equation?

According to analysts, nothing in the current diplomatic context justifies a genuine resurgence of optimism in the markets. The gap between Washington and Tehran remains too wide, making any resolution by Donald Trump's deadline unlikely.

"As diplomacy seems to reach its limits and military options increasingly enter the equation, the asymmetry of scenarios remains marked, and de-escalation must prevail," notes Ahmad Assiri, strategist at Pepperstone.

"As long as no progress is observed on the reopening of Hormuz, maintaining defensive positions remains the only rational response," he believes.

With no shortage of stress factors, the recent consolidation phase could well continue during this shortened week, as the optimistic scenarios established by many investors appear increasingly challenged.

The prospect of enduring tensions in the Middle East is contributing to rising volatility and higher oil prices.

Crude prices reached new near-four-year highs overnight, supported by the U.S. President's aggressive rhetoric.

U.S. light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) is up 2.2% at 115.7 dollars after hitting its highest level since June 6, 2022. Brent is up 1.6% at 111.6 dollars.

While the rise in black gold should support energy stocks, it is expected to penalize the transport, tourism, and leisure sectors, as soaring oil prices increase the fuel bill for airlines.

Despite Donald Trump's bellicose rhetoric, Wall Street ended slightly higher on Monday, with gains ranging from 0.3% to 0.5%, as investors set aside geopolitical concerns to focus on some bargain hunting.

Prudence prevails ahead of key data

Market participants have, however, adopted cautious positions ahead of the numerous economic indicators expected this week.

PCE inflation and consumer price figures in the United States, scheduled for Thursday and Friday, will be a major test for the markets, given that persistent inflationary pressures would force investors to definitively abandon hopes for a swift pivot by the Fed.

This Tuesday, the statistical agenda appears relatively light, though it will be driven by the latest service sector PMI indices in Europe and durable goods orders in the United States.

Initial quarterly results will also begin to occupy investors, as this new week will be marked, among others, by reports from Delta Air Lines and BlackRock.

However, the U.S. earnings season will only hit its stride starting next week, with accounts from banking heavyweights JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley.

In the fixed-income market, the ten-year Treasury yield is up more than two basis points at 4.3350%, benefiting from the rise in crude prices which fuels inflation expectations.

In the foreign exchange market, where movements are limited, the euro is nearly flat against the greenback, around 1.1535 dollars.

Gold is heading lower again (-0.4% at 4,667.6 dollars per ounce), suffering from competition from bond yields, a firm dollar, and a technical breathing spell while waiting for more clarity on the evolution of inflation and the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.