The Global Energy Order Is Breaking Down -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 3.8% to $115.50 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 4% at 45.34 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 0.1% to $13,045 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are down 1.1% at $4,556.40 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

The Global Energy Order Is Breaking Down

A fractured OPEC. A blockaded Persian Gulf. A U.S. emboldened by its world-leading fossil-fuel output.

The Iran war is scrambling the longstanding foundations of the oil market, ushering in a more fragmented and potentially more volatile energy world. The free flow of petroleum across oceans is out. Resource nationalism is in.

The latest rupture of the global energy map came Tuesday, when the United Arab Emirates said it would leave the Saudi Arabia-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, dealing a major blow to a cartel of oil producers that was designed in part to tame an industry famed for booms and busts. Instead, the U.A.E. is striking out on its own.

OTHER STORIES:

TotalEnergies Increases Shareholder Returns as Iran Conflict Boosts Earnings

TotalEnergies said it would return more cash to shareholders as the conflict in the Middle East provides an earnings windfall, with prices set to remain high over the second quarter as disruption continues.

The French energy major said Wednesday that it would resume share repurchases of up to $1.5 billion over the second quarter ending June as war-induced price rises deliver earnings and cash-flow growth. It also raised its interim dividend by nearly 6% to 0.90 euros ($1.05) a share.

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EU Details State Aid Measures to Support Sectors Hit by Rising Energy Prices -- Update

The European Union on Wednesday said it would adopt temporary measures to cushion firms from some of the impact of sharply rising energy prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East.

The EU's executive said member states could compensate sectors up to 70% of extra costs due to price increases of fuel or fertilizer caused by the crisis for companies in the agriculture, fishery or transport sectors.

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Sinopec Reports Profit Rise as Oil Prices Climb Amid Iran War

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp's net profit rose in the first quarter as international crude oil prices jumped due to the conflict in the Middle East.

The Chinese oil-and-gas major--better known as Sinopec--said late Tuesday that net profit for the first three months of the year climbed 27% to 17.74 billion yuan, equivalent to $2.59 billion.

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Phillips 66 Profit Down Amid Losses on Energy Hedges

Phillips 66's first-quarter net income fell due to losses on the refining giant's hedging strategy, but the company said it was prepared for more oil-price volatility.

The Houston-based oil refiner posted earnings of $207 million, or 51 cents a share, down from $487 million, or $1.18 a share, a year earlier.

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PetroChina Profit Rises, Revenue Falls Amid Energy Shock From Iran Conflict

PetroChina's net profit rose slightly in the first quarter, supported by increased sales of its gas and refined products despite lower revenue amid the global energy shock triggered by the war in Iran.

The listed arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. said net profit rose 1.9% to 48.33 billion yuan, equivalent to $7.07 billion, for the three months ended March. The rise was driven primarily by higher natural gas sales volumes, as well as stronger sales volumes and margins for oil and chemical products, it said.

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Woodside Energy's Business Review to Consider Assets in Portfolio

SYDNEY--Woodside Energy will review how it deploys capital and assets within its portfolio under a process launched by its new chief executive, as it prepares to bring projects online from the U.S. to Australia in the coming years.

Liz Westcott, who was appointed CEO last month after a short stint as acting leader, said the review would be broad and aims to ensure the company is operating effectively as developments--including the Scarborough natural gas project offshore Australia--come online and the Beaumont New Ammonia project in Texas ramps up.

MARKET TALKS:

Oil Gains Further as Prolonged U.S.-Iran Impasse Deepens Supply Shock -- Market Talk

1134 GMT - Oil prices extend gains, with Brent crude for June delivery nearing $115 a barrel on prospects of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. In afternoon European trading, the international oil benchmark is up 3.1% at $114.74 a barrel, while the U.S. oil gauge WTI rises 3.5% to $103.42 a barrel. Talks between the U.S. and Iran are at an impasse, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that President Trump has told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. Meanwhile, the strait continues to operate at minimal capacity. "Supply losses are being offset through constrained adjustments rather than new supply," Kpler analysts say. "Over two-thirds of the rebalancing has come from supply curtailments and refinery run cuts." ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Higher as Supply Disruption Concerns Linger -- Market Talk

1044 GMT - Palm oil ends higher amid lingering concerns of supply disruption. Potential El Nino conditions from May, expected to persist through at least end-2026, could drive crude palm oil prices higher, Citi analyst Gan Huan Wen says. CPO prices previously rose 5% during the event and 17% by the end of the event, he notes. However, the Middle East conflict's market impact and crude oil price trends remain an uncertainty to palm oil prices, Galaxy Futures note. Malaysia's palm inventories remain high, and investors should monitor the situation surrounding major palm producers, Galaxy adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery ended 42 ringgit higher at 4,578 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Copper Sentiment Still Fragile as Geopolitical Risks Cloud Demand Outlook -- Market Talk

0853 GMT - Overall sentiment in copper markets remains fragile due to persistent geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the impact of the Iran war on global demand growth. Stronger physical demand in China, supported by tighter inventories after post-holiday restocking, has offered some support to prices. However, a more sustained recovery would likely require clearer signs of easing geopolitical tensions as well as a firmer outlook for industrial activity. Three-month futures on the LME are up 0.2% to $13,063 a metric ton, though they are on track for a weekly loss of 3%. "The market is no longer being actively defended at previous levels, opening the door to further downside if macro pressure persists," analysts at Sucden Financial say. ([e-mail])

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Goldman Sachs Continues to See Gold at $5,400 by Year-End -- Market Talk

0745 GMT - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook for gold, forecasting prices to reach $5,400 an ounce by the end of the year. Central-bank diversification remains a key pillar, with official-sector demand holding up despite bouts of volatility. The bank also expects speculative positioning to normalize and anticipates around 50 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. In the near term, risks are tilted to the downside, particularly if geopolitical tensions trigger further liquidation, Goldman says. In the medium term, however, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over fiscal sustainability could accelerate global diversification into gold, reinforcing its long-term upward trajectory. ([e-mail])

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Gold Falls as Investors Eye Powell Remarks -- Market Talk

0738 GMT - Gold prices fall as traders await remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later on Wednesday for further insights into the impact of the Iran war on the economy. While Fed officials are widely expected to leave rates unchanged this week, the key question for investors is whether rate cuts have merely been delayed or derailed altogether. In early European trading, gold futures in New York are down 0.3% to $4,591.50 a troy ounce, pressured by oil-driven inflation risks. Silver is flat at $73.23 an ounce, while platinum falls 0.9% to $1,941.60 an ounce. "The market's immediate focus remains on [U.S.-Iran] mediation efforts, with a reopening of the strait and a subsequent drop in oil prices representing the biggest short-term upside catalyst for both gold and silver," analysts at Saxo Bank say. ([e-mail])

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Oil Rises on Fears of Prolonged Hormuz Blockade -- Market Talk

0726 GMT - Oil prices remain elevated after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. In early European trading, Brent crude for June delivery rises 1% to $112.34 a barrel, while WTI futures for June are up 0.7% to $100.64 a barrel. "Stalled peace talks have raised the prospect of an indefinite disruption to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf," analysts at ANZ say. "The rebalancing of the market once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened will take years." Traders are now watching for updates on peace negotiations and this week's U.S. crude inventory report for signals on how quickly stockpiles are declining amid strong export demand. ([e-mail])

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Gold's Underlying Demand Remains Intact Amid Broader Macro Uncertainty -- Market Talk

0717 GMT - Underlying demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty remains intact, Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva says in a note. This suggests that broader macro uncertainty would still offer structural support to the metal's prices even as gains are capped. She notes gold has struggled to extend gains due to the dollar's strength and expectations of interest-rate cuts, which reduce the appeal of nonyielding assets like gold. She expects the next downside support level for gold to be around $4,500 a troy ounce, followed by $4,350 an ounce. Spot gold declines 0.4% to $4,578.69 an ounce. ([e-mail])

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El Nino Risk Likely to Support Crude Palm Oil Prices -- Market Talk

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04-29-26 0934ET