Looking back, 2025 was a pretty rough ride for Canadian trade, but gold saved the day.
Canada hit its biggest trade deficit since 2020 at $31.3bn (USD everywhere, unless mentioned otherwise). Economists from Bank of Montreal and National Bank pointed out that record-high gold prices acted as a band-aid, masking how much the trade balance was actually bleeding.
Sample this: While energy exports were struggling—dropping 6.9% in market value mainly due to lower prices—precious metals acted as a huge macroeconomic cushion as rose 41.7%, as per Statistics Canada. If those metals hadn’t stepped up, total annual exports would’ve dropped by 3% instead of just the 0.2% dip.
In addition, when things got rocky with US tariffs last year, Canada pivoted. Exports to non-US markets hit an all-time high in December 2025, with gold sales to the UK and Switzerland doing all the heavy lifting. The mining sector ended up being one of the fastest-growing parts of the economy. Metallic mineral extraction saw an 8.4% price jump early in the year.
Major domestic players like Triple Flag Precious Metals—that operates as a streaming and royalty company—translated these record prices into an envious cash flow. The company reported over $1bn in total liquidity by the end of 2025, proving that mining industry remained the bedrock of Canada’s financial resilience.
Digging milestones
The on-the-ground numbers were a flex, too. Triple Flag Precious Metals hit a record-breaking 113,237 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs), marking their ninth year of straight growth. They managed to up their game by 7.8% y/y compared to the 105,087 GEOs produced in 2024.
That total production was built on a solid mix of 72,766 ounces of gold and 40,471 ounces of silver. The heavy lifting came from a few key spots, specifically their Cerro Lindo mine in Peru, which delivered 9,319 GEOs in Q4 alone *and* hit a milestone of 18.9 million silver ounces delivered ever since the stream began.
The golden lining
No prizes for guessing, those high production numbers aided the balance sheet. Triple Flag Metals collected a total revenue hitting a record $388.7m, a 44.5% jump from the $269m in 2024. The company's bottom line saw a major shift, moving from a $23.1m net loss the year before to a $240m profit.
While gold was the main breadwinner, silver revenue grew by nearly 50%, climbing to $145.7m from $97.7m in 2024. The company stayed debt-free with over $1bn in total liquidity and roughly $70m in cash on hand.
Looking ahead, the management expects a slight y/y dip with a guidance range of 95,000 to 105,000 GEOs in 2026 due to some planned mine sequencing at Northparkes and a scheduled contractual step-down at Cerro Lindo.
Gunning for an upside
Despite this temporary dip in production guidance, the company's robust financial health has kept investor sentiment high. Triple Flag Metals is currently showing strong market confidence, with its stock trading at CAD 53.0 ($39.15) and supporting a market capitalization of CAD 6.9bn ($8.08bn). For context, the stock has risen 110.93% in the last 12 months.
Turns out, with this massive triple-digit rally, the numbers suggest there’s still plenty of value for the stock. While the company carries a historical three-year average P/E ratio of 45.0x, its forward-looking P/E ratio valuation for 2027 is projected at 26x.
This valuation gap has caught the eye of analysts. The Street sentiment remains largely bullish; out of the 11 analysts currently covering the stock, seven have "Buy" ratings. This optimism is reflected in an average target price of $45.3, suggesting a potential 15% upside from current levels.
Minding the gap
Now for the downsides. Triple Flag Metals’ "landlord" model comes with its own set of hassles, primarily because they don’t control the mines they invest in. If partners at sites such as Cerro Lindo hit operational snags or face labor strikes, the company’s cash flow stalls. Since a few flagship mines drive most of their revenue, one bad year at a major site like Northparkes can significantly hurt the balance sheet.
Geopolitical issues in places such as Peru add another layer of unpredictability. Since their revenue is tied to market prices, any sudden drop in gold or silver would quickly shrink those profit margins.
