The agenda was huge - trade, tariffs, Iran, Taiwan, and technology - but the result was smaller: no major trade deal, no clear tariff relief, no big technology agreement, and no visible path to ending the Middle East crisis. Investors turned cautious as a result, with futures on Wall Street down by 1.2% for the Nasdaq 100 and 0.8% for the S&P 500.

The visit reminded everyone that the world’s two biggest economies can still talk, but they are not close to trusting each other. The technology issue showed this clearly: Washington has allowed Nvidia to export H200 chips to China, but Beijing has not approved shipments. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China would decide for itself whether to buy them. He also noted that China remains committed to making more of its own technology. China does not just want access to American chips, it wants independence from them. Conversely, the U.S. does not just want to sell technology, it wants to control what China can use. 

The chip market suffered today as a results. Nvidia, Intel, AMD, and Applied Materials all came under pressure before the open. Applied Materials had even given a solid forecast, which in a calmer market might have been enough. But in this market, good news can still lose a fight with rising yields and $109 oil.

The same problem applies to trade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had floated the idea of targeted tariff cuts and ways to encourage Chinese investment. Markets hoped for something concrete, but companies are still left guessing which tariffs will stay, which rules will change, and whether the next political headline will upend their plans.

When it comes to Iran, according to Axios, Trump said Xi assured him China would not supply Iran with military equipment, while also noting that China buys a lot of Iranian oil and wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened. At the same time, Axios points to U.S. leaks and media reports suggesting a darker backdrop: China may be using the Iran war to strengthen its position against Washington, while Chinese companies have reportedly explored secret arms sales to Tehran.

It seems that the U.S.-China relationship is no longer built on easy cooperation. For decades, America bought what China made, China grew rich selling it, and both sides lived with the tension. That system is breaking down, as China wants to dominate more advanced industries. The U.S. wants to stop becoming dependent on China for critical technology. Both sides want leverage.

Xi also reached for a familiar historical warning: the Thucydides Trap, the idea that a rising power and an established one can slide into conflict if rivalry is badly managed. His point was polished, but clear enough. China wants stability with the United States, but not at the price of accepting permanent American dominance.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: year-on-year industrial production in Switzerland; preliminary current account in China; housing starts in Canada; in the United States, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and month-on-month industrial production. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99.246
  • Gold: $4,553
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $108.97 (WTI) $100.82
  • United States 10 years: 4.54%
  • BITCOIN: $81,252

In corporate news:

  • Pershing Square will disclose a new position in Microsoft, with Bill Ackman citing the company’s valuation as compelling despite recent share-price weakness.
  • Apollo Global Management-backed West Technology is reportedly in exclusive talks to sell its remaining operating business while negotiating with debt holders.
  • Nu Holdings reported higher first-quarter earnings and revenue, but its shares fell premarket after revenue missed analyst expectations.
  • Blackstone and KKR are reportedly set to take control of Affordable Care as part of a restructuring that would cut about 70% of the dental group’s debt.
  • Boeing and Toyota each donated $1 million to fund “The Great American Road Trip,” a show involving U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy that has drawn ethics scrutiny.
  • Anthropic had its proposed $1.5 billion copyright settlement with authors reviewed by a U.S. judge, who requested more details before approval.
  • Gilead Sciences priced a $3 billion senior unsecured debt offering to be used for general corporate purposes.
  • Sandisk urged shareholders to reject an unsolicited mini-tender offer from Tutanota, warning it could result in a below-market price and delayed payment.
  • ServiceNow and Experian launched a multi-year partnership to develop autonomous AI agents for workplace tasks such as onboarding and third-party risk management.
  • Apple’s partnership with OpenAI has reportedly become strained, with the AI company said to be preparing possible legal action after seeing fewer benefits than expected.
  • Biogen plans to move its Alzheimer’s candidate diranersen into registrational studies despite the phase 2 trial missing its primary dose-response endpoint.
  • Cerebras Systems soared 68% to $311 on its Nasdaq debut (initial public offering price $185).
  • Boeing is set to receive an order for 200 aircraft from China, according to Trump.
  • Brookfield Corporation has acquired $2 billion worth of SpaceX shares.
  • Live Nation announces the construction of a new indoor concert venue in Seattle.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Allegion Plc: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 170 to USD 150.
  • American Express Company: Freedom Broker upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 325 to USD 370.
  • Applied Materials, Inc.: CTBC Securities Investment Service Co LTD upgrades to buy from add and raises the target price from USD 420 to USD 550.
  • Arista Networks, Inc.: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 164.
  • C.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 199.
  • Cisco Systems, Inc.: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 77 to USD 137.
  • Doximity, Inc.: Barclays downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 38 to USD 20.
  • Fox Corporation: Zacks upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 69 to USD 76.
  • T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.: Zacks upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 81 to USD 108.50.
  • The Timken Company: JP Morgan upgrades to neutral from underweight and raises the target price from USD 110 to USD 130.
  • Viking Holdings Ltd: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and raises the target price from USD 81 to USD 86.
  • Alphabet Inc.: Loop Capital Markets maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 355 to USD 490.
  • Broadcom Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 405 to USD 500.
  • Ciena Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 425 to USD 675.
  • Globant S.a.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 53 to USD 38.
  • Halliburton Company: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 40 to USD 49.
  • Humana Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 146 to USD 217.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 90 to USD 180.
  • Nebius Group: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 169 to USD 287.
  • Vertiv Holdings Co.: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 356 to USD 435.