For fifty years, software publishers have kept control of their relationship with customers. Microsoft, Adobe, SAP, and Salesforce, to name a few, sell their products directly to those who install and use them, without intermediaries. However, with AI, this logic could evolve. ChatGPT already provides access to certain applications without going through their interfaces. Tomorrow, it might be enough to ask AI to write a report or create a presentation: the assistant will choose the best software for the task itself.
OpenAI has already opened the door to this change. Since October, third-party applications can be integrated directly into ChatGPT. Spotify is among the early partners, alongside Booking.com and Expedia, and Canva. Users can, through a simple conversation, ask ChatGPT to create a playlist or recommend an artist, without ever leaving the platform.
The user benefit is that everything happens in the same place. However, for publishers, this is a radical shift: OpenAI becomes an access gateway. And like any intermediary, OpenAI could monetize this access in time. If a company is not connected to ChatGPT, AI could steer the user towards a competitor. This could create a strong dependency comparable to the app stores imposed by Apple and Google.
Another important aspect is that AI in the years to come could massively lower barriers to entry in software development. Thanks to tools like GitHub Copilot, Claude, or ChatGPT itself, coding an app becomes faster, cheaper, and accessible to non-specialists.
The market could thus be saturated with tools that are often free or open source. Differentiation will no longer come from the code, but from the user experience, design, or the quality of integration into dominant platforms.
In this context, the next digital battle will be played in the physical world. If software becomes a commodity generated by AI, true differentiation will come from physical interfaces: connected glasses, headphones, new smartphone capabilities, etc.
Industrial design, ergonomics and aesthetics will reclaim central importance. It is in this perspective that OpenAI recruited Jony Ive, the former Apple star designer. Together, they are working on creating a new "post-smartphone" device centered on AI.
Thus, the question is no longer solely whether OpenAI will devour software publishers, but whether software as a product will still make sense in the years to come.
Picture: Amandine Victor for MarketScreener
