AIR LEASE CORPORATION |
Real-time Estimate
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 50.89 USD | +1.19% |
|
-1.45% | +21.15% |
| Apr. 30 | Air Lease Corporation Increases Senior Unsecured Revolving Credit Facility to $7.8 Billion | CI |
| Apr. 16 | Barclays Raises Price Target on Air Lease to $55 From $48, Keeps Overweight Rating | MT |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 5,356 | 5,054 | 5,042 | 4,260 | 4,656 | 5,601 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 18,617 | 19,815 | 20,956 | 22,122 | 23,375 | 25,801 | 26,870 | 29,842 |
| P/E ratio | 9.34 x | 10.1 x | 12.4 x | -31 x | 8.16 x | 11 x | 9.35 x | 8.28 x |
| Yield | 1.18% | 1.37% | 1.51% | 1.97% | - | 1.56% | 1.81% | 1.58% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 2.66 x | 2.51 x | 2.41 x | 1.84 x | 1.73 x | 1.95 x | 1.79 x | 1.68 x |
| EV / Revenue | 9.23 x | 9.83 x | 10 x | 9.55 x | 8.71 x | 8.98 x | 8.57 x | 8.98 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 9.94 x | 10.4 x | 10.8 x | 16.1 x | 9.75 x | 9.71 x | 9.68 x | 10.1 x |
| EV / FCF | -7.27 x | -28.2 x | -15.4 x | 12.7 x | -9.96 x | -55.6 x | -77.4 x | - |
| FCF Yield | -13.8% | -3.54% | -6.49% | 7.86% | -10% | -1.8% | -1.29% | - |
| Price to Book | 0.96 x | 0.83 x | 0.72 x | 0.64 x | 0.65 x | 0.74 x | 0.7 x | 0.63 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 112,704 | 113,779 | 113,987 | 110,892 | 111,027 | 111,367 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 47.52 | 44.42 | 44.23 | 38.42 | 41.94 | 50.29 | 50.29 | 50.29 |
| Announcement Date | 2/14/20 | 2/22/21 | 2/17/22 | 2/16/23 | 2/15/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 2,017 | 2,015 | 2,088 | 2,317 | 2,685 | 2,875 | 3,135 | 3,325 |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,873 | 1,902 | 1,937 | 1,373 | 2,397 | 2,656 | 2,776 | 2,945 |
| EBIT 1 | 1,170 | 1,121 | 1,054 | 1,179 | 1,396 | 1,426 | 1,469 | 1,731 |
| Operating Margin | 57.99% | 55.64% | 50.47% | 50.87% | 51.98% | 49.6% | 46.85% | 52.07% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 735.7 | 646.7 | 541 | -138.8 | 753.6 | 690.9 | 806.1 | 920.7 |
| Net income 1 | 575.2 | 500.9 | 408.2 | -138.7 | 572.9 | 520 | 611.6 | 696.1 |
| Net margin | 28.52% | 24.85% | 19.54% | -5.99% | 21.34% | 18.09% | 19.51% | 20.94% |
| EPS 2 | 5.090 | 4.390 | 3.570 | -1.240 | 5.140 | 4.571 | 5.377 | 6.073 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | -2,562 | -702.4 | -1,359 | 1,739 | -2,348 | -464 | -347 | - |
| FCF margin | -127.05% | -34.85% | -65.07% | 75.05% | -87.43% | -16.14% | -11.07% | - |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | - | - | - | 126.64% | - | - | - | - |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 0.5600 | 0.6100 | 0.6700 | 0.7550 | - | 0.7867 | 0.9093 | 0.7950 |
| Announcement Date | 2/14/20 | 2/22/21 | 2/17/22 | 2/16/23 | 2/15/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 Q3 | 2021 Q4 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 524.5 | 597.2 | 596.7 | 557.7 | 561.3 | 601.6 | 636.1 | 672.9 | 659.4 | 716.6 | 677.4 | 708.9 | 740.1 | 761.1 | 772 |
| EBITDA 1 | 486.7 | 548.9 | 566.4 | 512.6 | 515.9 | 580.8 | 582.6 | 618.4 | 607.9 | 588.5 | 611.2 | 660.5 | 689.4 | 698.7 | - |
| EBIT 1 | 261.8 | 318 | 331.1 | 277.3 | 273.3 | 297.1 | 323 | 349.8 | 340.5 | 382.4 | 362.7 | 269.3 | 500.1 | 399.6 | - |
| Operating Margin | 49.91% | 53.26% | 55.49% | 49.73% | 48.7% | 49.38% | 50.77% | 51.98% | 51.64% | 53.36% | 53.53% | 37.99% | 67.58% | 52.5% | - |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 134.5 | 188.4 | -601.7 | 144.9 | 137.8 | 180.2 | 158.3 | 164 | 165 | 266.4 | 155.5 | 166.6 | 184.3 | 185.4 | 200 |
| Net income 1 | 100 | 142.3 | -479.4 | 105.9 | 99.96 | 134.9 | 118.3 | 122 | 122 | 210.6 | 107 | 124.5 | 141.7 | 146.6 | 152 |
| Net margin | 19.07% | 23.83% | -80.35% | 18.98% | 17.81% | 22.42% | 18.6% | 18.13% | 18.51% | 29.39% | 15.8% | 17.57% | 19.14% | 19.26% | 19.69% |
| EPS 2 | 0.8700 | 1.240 | -4.210 | 0.9500 | 0.9000 | 1.120 | 1.060 | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.890 | 0.9409 | 1.113 | 1.238 | 1.279 | 1.316 |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 0.1600 | 0.1850 | 0.1850 | 0.1850 | 0.1850 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | - | - | 0.2061 | 0.1765 | 0.1885 | 0.1912 | 0.2200 |
| Announcement Date | 11/4/21 | 2/17/22 | 5/5/22 | 8/4/22 | 11/3/22 | 2/16/23 | 5/1/23 | 8/3/23 | 11/6/23 | 2/15/24 | - | - | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 13,261 | 14,761 | 15,914 | 17,861 | 18,718 | 20,201 | 21,270 | 24,241 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 7.082 x | 7.76 x | 8.218 x | 13.01 x | 7.808 x | 7.605 x | 7.663 x | 8.232 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | -2,562 | -702 | -1,359 | 1,739 | -2,348 | -464 | -347 | - |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 15% | 8.57% | 6.24% | 9.66% | 8.3% | 6.94% | 8.78% | 8.14% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 3.89% | 2.13% | 1.56% | -0.5% | 1.95% | 1.6% | 2.11% | 1.9% |
| Assets 1 | 14,796 | 23,462 | 26,092 | 27,684 | 29,424 | 32,485 | 28,937 | 36,638 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 49.60 | 53.30 | 61.50 | 59.90 | 64.50 | 67.90 | 72.30 | 80.00 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 12.30 | 9.560 | 12.00 | 12.40 | 15.70 | 17.60 | 13.20 | - |
| Capex 1 | 3,955 | 1,793 | 2,736 | 3,121 | 4,094 | 4,079 | 2,458 | - |
| Capex / Sales | 196.09% | 88.94% | 131% | 134.7% | 152.5% | 141.91% | 78.42% | - |
| Announcement Date | 2/14/20 | 2/22/21 | 2/17/22 | 2/16/23 | 2/15/24 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B-
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
7
Last Close Price
50.29
USD
Average target price
57.29
USD
Spread / Average Target
+13.91%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.91% | 5.6B | |
| +4.40% | 30.92B | |
| +15.07% | 16.58B | |
| -17.73% | 6.98B | |
| -3.01% | 4.1B | |
| -4.18% | 3.63B | |
| -10.78% | 2.62B | |
| +16.36% | 2.13B | |
| -14.39% | 1.62B | |
| -2.97% | 1.68B |
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