Financials AvalonBay Communities, Inc.

Equities

AVB

US0534841012

Residential REITs

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 04:00:01 2024-05-10 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
196.9 ^USD	-0.13%		+2.12%	+5.17%

12:09pm	ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS : Cisco, Delta Air Lines, Mastercard, Visa, Anglo American...
12:02pm	Evercore ISI Downgrades AvalonBay Communities to In-Line From Outperform, Price Target is $202	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	29,222	22,352	35,239	22,566	26,555	27,957	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	36,390	29,603	42,798	30,148	34,043	35,954	36,153	36,313
P/E ratio	37.2 x	27.2 x	35.1 x	19.9 x	28.5 x	38.5 x	36.1 x	32.2 x
Yield	2.9%	3.96%	2.52%	3.94%	3.53%	3.45%	3.6%	3.76%
Capitalization / Revenue	12.6 x	9.73 x	15.4 x	8.72 x	9.62 x	9.72 x	9.3 x	8.81 x
EV / Revenue	15.7 x	12.9 x	18.7 x	11.7 x	12.3 x	12.5 x	12 x	11.4 x
EV / EBITDA	24 x	20.5 x	30.9 x	18.7 x	19.3 x	20 x	19.1 x	18.1 x
EV / FCF	282 x	124 x	108 x	23 x	23.7 x	119 x	30.6 x	47.1 x
FCF Yield	0.35%	0.81%	0.92%	4.34%	4.22%	0.84%	3.27%	2.12%
Price to Book	2.68 x	2.08 x	3.23 x	2.01 x	2.26 x	2.44 x	2.55 x	2.57 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	139,349	139,324	139,510	139,711	141,840	141,993	-	-
Reference price ²	209.7	160.4	252.6	161.5	187.2	196.9	196.9	196.9
Announcement Date	2/5/20	2/3/21	2/2/22	2/8/23	1/31/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	2,320	2,297	2,292	2,587	2,760	2,877	3,007	3,174
EBITDA ¹	1,516	1,443	1,387	1,615	1,761	1,798	1,889	2,011
EBIT ¹	854.2	735.3	628.6	800.1	943.8	951.6	1,021	1,122
Operating Margin	36.82%	32%	27.43%	30.93%	34.19%	33.08%	33.96%	35.35%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	799.1	824.5	1,010	-	938.6	703.3	759.2	843
Net income ¹	786	827.6	1,004	1,137	928.8	727	767.2	882.1
Net margin	33.88%	36.02%	43.82%	43.94%	33.65%	25.27%	25.52%	27.8%
EPS ²	5.630	5.890	7.190	8.120	6.560	5.111	5.458	6.120
Free Cash Flow ¹	128.9	238.7	395.1	1,310	1,435	302.4	1,182	770.5
FCF margin	5.56%	10.39%	17.24%	50.63%	52%	10.51%	39.32%	24.28%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	8.5%	16.54%	28.48%	81.1%	81.52%	16.82%	62.58%	38.31%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	16.4%	28.84%	39.34%	115.22%	154.53%	41.6%	154.08%	87.35%
Dividend per Share ²	6.080	6.360	6.360	6.360	6.600	6.791	7.095	7.407
Announcement Date	2/5/20	2/3/21	2/2/22	2/8/23	1/31/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	600.5	613.2	643.7	663.9	666.4	673.6	688.1	695.7	702.7	711.1	721.8	730.6	735.7	744.2	754.4
EBITDA ¹	376.5	377.3	400.1	411.5	426.1	425.6	441.9	440.5	452.7	448.1	444.7	449.7	463.1	461.3	466
EBIT ¹	179.5	175.6	200.8	204.8	218.9	220.8	241.4	239.5	242	235.8	234.9	237	248.8	242.3	247.8
Operating Margin	29.89%	28.63%	31.19%	30.86%	32.85%	32.78%	35.08%	34.43%	34.44%	33.16%	32.55%	32.44%	33.82%	32.56%	32.84%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	339.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	176.2	244.5	150.3	174.9	173	186.2	181.9	186.2
Net income ¹	335.2	262	138.7	494.7	241.3	146.9	367.9	172	242	173.4	174.1	177.5	185.2	180.7	181.5
Net margin	55.82%	42.74%	21.55%	74.52%	36.21%	21.81%	53.47%	24.73%	34.43%	24.39%	24.13%	24.29%	25.18%	24.28%	24.06%
EPS ²	2.400	1.870	0.9900	3.530	1.720	1.050	2.590	1.210	1.700	1.220	1.232	1.235	1.296	1.316	1.385
Dividend per Share ²	1.590	1.590	1.590	1.590	1.590	1.650	1.650	1.650	1.650	1.700	1.700	1.700	1.700	1.775	1.777
Announcement Date	2/2/22	4/27/22	7/27/22	11/3/22	2/8/23	4/26/23	7/31/23	10/25/23	1/31/24	4/25/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	7,169	7,251	7,560	7,582	7,488	7,997	8,196	8,356
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	4.729 x	5.026 x	5.45 x	4.694 x	4.253 x	4.447 x	4.339 x	4.155 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	129	239	395	1,310	1,435	302	1,182	771
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	7.27%	7.61%	9.26%	10.2%	8.06%	6.01%	6.73%	8.22%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	4.19%	4.32%	5.14%	5.63%	4.52%	3.42%	4.17%	4.52%
Assets ¹	18,751	19,160	19,551	20,180	20,568	21,247	18,411	19,523
Book Value Per Share ²	78.10	77.10	78.20	80.40	83.00	80.70	77.20	76.50
Cash Flow per Share ²	9.470	8.680	8.610	10.20	11.00	11.30	11.50	12.30
Capex ¹	1,193	981	808	1,096	1,099	1,359	904	879
Capex / Sales	51.43%	42.7%	35.26%	42.36%	39.82%	47.23%	30.05%	27.7%
Announcement Date	2/5/20	2/3/21	2/2/22	2/8/23	1/31/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for AvalonBay Communities, Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

196.9 USD

Average target price

202 USD

Spread / Average Target

+2.62%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Residential REITs

	1st Jan change	Capi.
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC.	+5.17%	27.96B
EQUITY RESIDENTIAL	+9.22%	25.32B
ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, INC.	+4.44%	16.63B
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITY, INC.	+0.75%	15.83B
SUN COMMUNITIES, INC.	-12.08%	14.64B
AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT	+0.31%	13.21B
UDR INC.	+1.96%	12.86B
EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC.	-10.99%	11.71B
CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST	+7.40%	11.36B
CANADIAN APARTMENT PROPERTIES REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST	-5.59%	5.7B

Residential REITs