Financials Crest Nicholson Holdings plc

Equities

Real-time Estimate Cboe Europe Other stock markets 09:46:23 2024-05-13 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
204.1 ^GBX	-1.02%		+2.84%	-6.25%

May. 10	UBS raises Trainline, cuts Kingspan	AN
Apr. 15	UBS Upgrades Crest Nicholson to Buy from Neutral, Lifts PT	MT

Fiscal Period: October	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	997.3	564.4	914	518.2	409.8	528.5	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	960.1	422.2	661.2	241.7	344.9	629.2	602.9	558.9
P/E ratio	12.1 x	-52.3 x	12.9 x	19.8 x	22.9 x	19.3 x	14.1 x	10.6 x
Yield	8.5%	-	3.82%	8.42%	10.6%	2.19%	2.93%	3.85%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.92 x	0.83 x	1.16 x	0.57 x	0.62 x	0.86 x	0.8 x	0.74 x
EV / Revenue	0.88 x	0.62 x	0.84 x	0.26 x	0.52 x	1.02 x	0.92 x	0.79 x
EV / EBITDA	7.09 x	6.58 x	5.6 x	1.69 x	7.34 x	12.8 x	9.64 x	7.04 x
EV / FCF	7.91 x	3.71 x	5.23 x	4.68 x	-2.06 x	-5.18 x	18.3 x	16.7 x
FCF Yield	12.6%	27%	19.1%	21.3%	-48.5%	-19.3%	5.46%	6%
Price to Book	1.17 x	0.68 x	1.01 x	0.59 x	-	0.62 x	0.6 x	0.58 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	256,782	256,776	256,736	256,531	256,132	256,320	-	-
Reference price ²	3.884	2.198	3.560	2.020	1.600	2.062	2.062	2.062
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/19/22	1/17/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹GBP in Million²GBP

Estimates

Fiscal Period: October	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	1,086	677.9	786.6	913.6	657.5	618.1	656.6	711.4
EBITDA ¹	135.5	64.2	118	143.2	47	48.97	62.56	79.42
EBIT ¹	133	57.1	114.6	140.9	44.2	47.45	61.15	78.19
Operating Margin	12.24%	8.42%	14.57%	15.42%	6.72%	7.68%	9.31%	10.99%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	102.7	-13.5	86.9	32.8	23.1	38.59	53.82	69.97
Net income ¹	82.5	-10.7	70.9	26.4	17.9	27.37	37.69	49.9
Net margin	7.59%	-1.58%	9.01%	2.89%	2.72%	4.43%	5.74%	7.01%
EPS ²	0.3210	-0.0420	0.2750	0.1020	0.0700	0.1068	0.1467	0.1944
Free Cash Flow ¹	121.4	113.9	126.3	51.6	-167.4	-121.4	32.91	33.53
FCF margin	11.17%	16.8%	16.06%	5.65%	-25.46%	-19.64%	5.01%	4.71%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	89.59%	177.41%	107.03%	36.03%	-	-	52.62%	42.22%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	147.15%	-	178.14%	195.45%	-	-	87.33%	67.2%
Dividend per Share ²	0.3300	-	0.1360	0.1700	0.1700	0.0451	0.0605	0.0795
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/19/22	1/17/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹GBP in Million²GBP

Estimates

Fiscal Period: October	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	101	74.4	30.3
Net Cash position ¹	37.2	142	253	277	64.9	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	2.056 x	1.19 x	0.3818 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	121	114	126	51.6	-167	-121	32.9	33.5
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	11.6%	4.44%	8.21%	2.96%	3.61%	3.15%	4.35%	5.55%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	6.17%	-0.7%	4.61%	1.66%	2.02%	1.56%	2.68%	3.32%
Assets ¹	1,337	1,525	1,538	1,594	886.3	1,754	1,406	1,505
Book Value Per Share ²	3.330	3.240	3.510	3.450	-	3.300	3.410	3.560
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.4900	0.4400	0.4900	0.2000	-0.6500	-0.4900	0.1800	0.1800
Capex ¹	3.8	0.3	0.2	0.1	1.8	2.88	2.88	2.77
Capex / Sales	0.35%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	0.27%	0.47%	0.44%	0.39%
Announcement Date	1/28/20	1/26/21	1/19/22	1/17/23	1/23/24	-	-	-

¹GBP in Million²GBP

Estimates

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2.062 GBP

Average target price

2.264 GBP

Spread / Average Target

+9.78%

	1st Jan change	Capi.
CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS PLC	-6.25%	661M
DR HORTON	-1.33%	49.39B
DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO., LTD.	-3.16%	17.55B
SEKISUI HOUSE, LTD.	+15.26%	15.12B
TOLL BROTHERS, INC.	+23.89%	13.23B
SUMITOMO FORESTRY CO., LTD.	+40.19%	7.74B
THE BERKELEY GROUP HOLDINGS PLC	+11.13%	6.95B
TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC	-2.35%	6.39B
TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORPORATION	+12.37%	6.3B
SEKISUI CHEMICAL CO., LTD.	+10.77%	6.11B