Financials Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd.

Equities

5301

JP3560800009

Specialty Chemicals

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-05-31 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
996 ^JPY	+1.63%		+1.33%	-2.88%

May. 31	Japanese Shares Close Week in Green as Yields Fall After Key US Data	MT
May. 31	Tokai Carbon Undertaking Share Exchange to Make Oriental Sangyo Wholly-Owned Subsidiary	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	233,402	274,992	257,523	228,759	218,631	212,362	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	328,736	366,460	336,914	329,301	307,808	331,362	322,662	295,062
P/E ratio	7.3 x	270 x	16 x	10.2 x	8.59 x	15.3 x	9.42 x	7.35 x
Yield	4.38%	2.33%	2.48%	2.8%	3.51%	3.01%	3.01%	3.51%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.89 x	1.36 x	0.99 x	0.67 x	0.6 x	0.58 x	0.54 x	0.49 x
EV / Revenue	1.25 x	1.82 x	1.3 x	0.97 x	0.85 x	0.9 x	0.81 x	0.68 x
EV / EBITDA	4.51 x	10.4 x	6.18 x	4.36 x	4.05 x	5.26 x	4.02 x	3.26 x
EV / FCF	-5.72 x	14 x	37 x	-37.9 x	21.3 x	-14.1 x	11.4 x	7.01 x
FCF Yield	-17.5%	7.14%	2.71%	-2.64%	4.69%	-7.08%	8.76%	14.3%
Price to Book	1.1 x	1.37 x	1.12 x	0.85 x	0.67 x	0.65 x	0.62 x	0.58 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	213,153	213,172	213,181	213,196	213,195	213,215	-	-
Reference price ²	1,095	1,290	1,208	1,073	1,026	996.0	996.0	996.0
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/9/21	2/8/22	2/9/23	2/13/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	262,028	201,542	258,874	340,371	363,946	367,525	396,667	436,800
EBITDA ¹	72,847	35,260	54,518	75,570	75,948	63,000	80,300	90,450
EBIT ¹	54,344	7,858	24,647	40,588	38,728	23,650	38,000	46,450
Operating Margin	20.74%	3.9%	9.52%	11.92%	10.64%	6.43%	9.58%	10.63%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	51,226	6,116	23,354	42,111	41,998	24,300	37,350	46,450
Net income ¹	31,994	1,019	16,105	22,418	25,468	14,175	22,533	28,900
Net margin	12.21%	0.51%	6.22%	6.59%	7%	3.86%	5.68%	6.62%
EPS ²	150.1	4.780	75.55	105.2	119.4	65.18	105.7	135.6
Free Cash Flow ¹	-57,495	26,149	9,117	-8,695	14,442	-23,450	28,250	42,100
FCF margin	-21.94%	12.97%	3.52%	-2.55%	3.97%	-6.38%	7.12%	9.64%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	74.16%	16.72%	-	19.02%	-	35.18%	46.55%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	2,566.14%	56.61%	-	56.71%	-	125.37%	145.67%
Dividend per Share ²	48.00	30.00	30.00	30.00	36.00	30.00	30.00	35.00
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/9/21	2/8/22	2/9/23	2/13/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2
Net sales ¹	122,852	93,738	117,380	73,779	69,512	87,558	157,070	89,262	94,039	86,530	91,898	178,428	89,247	96,271	82,161	95,233	176,350	92,758	103,882	190,000
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	13,903	5,817	10,945	6,978	7,938	8,779	16,717	11,298	12,573	11,493	10,245	21,738	8,011	8,979	3,489	6,627	9,300	6,116	7,504	13,000
Operating Margin	11.32%	6.21%	9.32%	9.46%	11.42%	10.03%	10.64%	12.66%	13.37%	13.28%	11.15%	12.18%	8.98%	9.33%	4.25%	6.96%	5.27%	6.59%	7.22%	6.84%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	5,074	10,782	-	8,335	-	19,181	12,149	-	11,977	-	24,287	8,822	-	4,747	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-	2,158	5,708	-	4,044	-	9,253	6,868	6,297	7,964	7,940	15,904	5,471	4,093	1,627	5,500	7,100	3,500	5,100	6,000
Net margin	-	2.3%	4.86%	-	5.82%	-	5.89%	7.69%	6.7%	9.2%	8.64%	8.91%	6.13%	4.25%	1.98%	5.78%	4.03%	3.77%	4.91%	3.16%
EPS ²	-	10.13	26.78	30.71	18.97	-	43.41	32.21	-	37.36	-	74.60	25.66	-	7.630	1,053	-	3,978	1,505	-
Dividend per Share	-	15.00	15.00	-	-	-	15.00	-	-	-	-	18.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	2/12/20	8/4/20	8/10/21	2/8/22	5/11/22	8/8/22	8/8/22	11/7/22	2/9/23	5/11/23	8/8/23	8/8/23	11/7/23	2/13/24	5/9/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	95,334	91,468	79,391	100,542	89,177	119,000	110,300	82,700
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.309 x	2.594 x	1.456 x	1.33 x	1.174 x	1.889 x	1.374 x	0.9143 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-57,495	26,149	9,117	-8,695	14,442	-23,450	28,250	42,100
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	16%	0.5%	7.5%	9%	8.6%	4.25%	6.95%	8.1%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	13.6%	1.36%	5.1%	7.81%	6.84%	2.2%	3.4%	4.15%
Assets ¹	235,476	75,064	316,057	287,064	372,306	644,318	662,745	696,386
Book Value Per Share ²	994.0	944.0	1,075	1,261	1,522	1,541	1,619	1,719
Cash Flow per Share ²	237.0	103.0	183.0	234.0	256.0	209.0	263.0	-
Capex ¹	24,341	28,873	30,347	48,150	53,316	80,000	34,500	32,000
Capex / Sales	9.29%	14.33%	11.72%	14.15%	14.65%	21.77%	8.7%	7.33%
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/9/21	2/8/22	2/9/23	2/13/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

996 JPY

Average target price

1,195 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+19.98%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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