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TH0796010005

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

End-of-day quote Thailand S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-05-30 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
51.75 ^THB	-0.96%		+4.02%	-3.72%

May. 31	Thai Oil Public Company Limited Announces Changes Board Committee Member, Effective from June 1, 2024	CI
May. 09	Thai Oil Public Company Limited Reports Earnings Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	142,290	106,081	100,981	125,653	120,069	115,601	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	183,877	191,741	269,433	257,808	269,900	270,699	258,485	243,081
P/E ratio	22.6 x	-32.1 x	8.02 x	3.6 x	6.18 x	7.59 x	5.72 x	4.59 x
Yield	2.15%	1.35%	5.25%	7.11%	6.33%	5.53%	7.69%	9.66%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.39 x	0.43 x	0.29 x	0.24 x	0.26 x	0.25 x	0.23 x	0.21 x
EV / Revenue	0.5 x	0.77 x	0.78 x	0.49 x	0.58 x	0.58 x	0.51 x	0.45 x
EV / EBITDA	14.2 x	-77.2 x	8.89 x	4.96 x	7.22 x	8.58 x	6.39 x	5.05 x
EV / FCF	-12.7 x	-4.17 x	-10.9 x	22.8 x	19.9 x	-150 x	8.17 x	10.1 x
FCF Yield	-7.85%	-24%	-9.15%	4.39%	5.03%	-0.67%	12.2%	9.87%
Price to Book	1.19 x	0.91 x	0.84 x	0.83 x	0.73 x	0.66 x	0.62 x	0.56 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,040,000	2,040,028	2,040,028	2,233,836	2,233,836	2,233,836	-	-
Reference price ²	69.75	52.00	49.50	56.25	53.75	51.75	51.75	51.75
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/15/21	2/15/22	2/10/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	364,327	247,913	345,496	529,589	469,244	462,974	504,415	545,076
EBITDA ¹	12,971	-2,483	30,309	52,014	37,359	31,541	40,478	48,144
EBIT ¹	5,886	-10,037	22,885	44,270	29,560	23,036	29,181	36,787
Operating Margin	1.62%	-4.05%	6.62%	8.36%	6.3%	4.98%	5.79%	6.75%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	7,756	-3,242	15,100	42,024	24,257	19,421	24,592	31,368
Net income ¹	6,277	-3,301	12,578	32,668	19,443	15,436	20,331	25,176
Net margin	1.72%	-1.33%	3.64%	6.17%	4.14%	3.33%	4.03%	4.62%
EPS ²	3.080	-1.620	6.170	15.63	8.700	6.821	9.050	11.27
Free Cash Flow ¹	-14,443	-45,942	-24,642	11,322	13,584	-1,801	31,638	23,987
FCF margin	-3.96%	-18.53%	-7.13%	2.14%	2.89%	-0.39%	6.27%	4.4%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	-	21.77%	36.36%	-	78.16%	49.82%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	34.66%	69.87%	-	155.61%	95.28%
Dividend per Share ²	1.500	0.7000	2.600	4.000	3.400	2.862	3.980	5.000
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/15/21	2/15/22	2/10/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	128,353	155,094	108,338	120,882	155,379	-	127,901	125,426	116,820	108,662	124,206	119,556	119,532	121,109	121,109	121,109	-	-
EBITDA	-	-	7,788	18,687	32,514	-	-432.8	1,246	7,758	4,390	21,222	4,305	10,848	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	-13,670	11,702	5,858	16,855	30,509	-	-2,283	-810.9	5,854	2,138	19,281	2,287	8,904	2,510	5,162	5,465	-	-
Operating Margin	-10.65%	7.55%	5.41%	13.94%	19.64%	-	-1.78%	-0.65%	5.01%	1.97%	15.52%	1.91%	7.45%	2.07%	4.26%	4.51%	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-14,139	-	6,229	9,004	32,959	-	-40.94	101.9	6,404	618.4	13,567	3,667	7,365	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-11,274	5,483	5,033	7,183	25,327	32,510	11.71	146.8	4,554	1,117	10,828	2,944	5,863	4,548	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-8.78%	3.54%	4.65%	5.94%	16.3%	-	0.01%	0.12%	3.9%	1.03%	8.72%	2.46%	4.9%	3.76%	-	-	-	-
EPS ²	-5.530	-	2.470	3.520	12.41	15.94	0.0100	-	2.040	0.5000	4.850	1.310	2.620	1.895	1.822	1.749	-	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	2.000	-	-	-	-	4.000	-	-	-	2.750	-	-	-	2.915	-	-
Announcement Date	8/10/20	8/10/21	2/15/22	5/11/22	8/9/22	8/9/22	11/9/22	2/10/23	5/10/23	8/9/23	11/8/23	2/14/24	5/9/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	41,587	85,659	168,451	132,155	149,832	155,098	142,884	127,480
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	3.206 x	-34.49 x	5.558 x	2.541 x	4.011 x	4.917 x	3.53 x	2.648 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-14,443	-45,942	-24,642	11,322	13,584	-1,801	31,638	23,987
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	3.71%	-7.57%	10.6%	23.6%	11.9%	9.26%	11.6%	13.1%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.62%	-3.03%	3.76%	8.1%	4.5%	3.88%	5.26%	6.41%
Assets ¹	386,495	108,823	334,166	403,360	432,291	397,540	386,463	392,728
Book Value Per Share ²	58.80	57.00	59.30	67.40	74.10	78.40	83.90	91.90
Cash Flow per Share ²	6.420	1.190	5.150	20.70	12.60	7.790	11.00	14.80
Capex ¹	27,531	48,377	35,146	31,929	14,504	16,899	12,654	10,054
Capex / Sales	7.56%	19.51%	10.17%	6.03%	3.09%	3.65%	2.51%	1.84%
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/15/21	2/15/22	2/10/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Thai Oil

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

51.75 THB

Average target price

65.9 THB

Spread / Average Target

+27.35%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

	1st Jan change	Capi.
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CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL CORPORATION	+21.27%	102B
BP PLC	+4.72%	102B
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION	+19.04%	62.23B
PHILLIPS 66	+6.74%	60.25B
VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION	+20.88%	51.38B
IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED	+27.58%	37.82B
INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LIMITED	+25.07%	26.8B
FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORPORATION	-16.48%	19.74B

Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing