Thai Oil : Q1/ 2024 Analyst Meeting

Thai Oil Public Company Limited

Q1/24 Analyst Presentation

17 May 2024

Time : 10:00 - 12:00 hrs.

2

Disclaimer

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Some statements made in this material are forward-looking with relevant assumptions, which are subject to uncertainties, which may cause the actual result/performance to be materially deviated from any future result/performance implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and management/staff are not capable to control and guarantee if these forward-looking statements will be accurately materialized, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

Presentation Agenda

Q1/24

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

OUTLOOK

FINAL REMARK

3

Q2TD : $ 1.7/BBL

$(2.2)/BBL (QoQ)

Q1'24 1.1

Key Market Highlight

Higher GRM/GIM due to Tight Product Supply from Refinery Outages

4

Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook	Final Remark
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	CFP Progress	ESG & Recognitions

Key Market Factors

Impact to Oil Prices & Refining Margin

Global Oil Demand Growth

Rising Jet demand to support demand growth

Tighter Crude Supply from OPEC+ Cut Extension

OPEC+ extended the additional voluntary cuts through Q2'24 and possible extension at least Q3'24

Dubai Price ($/BBL)

Softening crude oil price due to concern on economic slowdown, coupled with higher supply from non-OPEC (US, Canada and Guyana)

110%

100%

90%

80%

Pre-COVID level (2019)

MBD	MBD
106	4.0
104	3.0
102	2.0

Q1'24 81.2

$(2.3)/BBL (QoQ)

Q2TD : $88.7/BBL

70%									Total oil demand
60%									growth 1.7%*
								Gasoline 0.8%
50%
									Gasoil 1.0%
40%											Jet 8.1%
											(*2024 vs 2023)
30%
2019		2020	2021	2022		2023	2024
				Gasoline			Gasoil				Jet
Source : EA(Apr'24)

100																							1.0
																									0.0
98
																							(1.0)
96																							(2.0)
94
																						(3.0)
92																											(4.0)
								2022		2023		2024
2021
				Demand				Supply		Stock Build		Stock Draw
																	(RHS)	(RHS)

Source : EIA (May'24)

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Murban OSP ($/BBL)

Lower crude OSP premium due to higher ME crude supply from ME refinery maintenance

	Tight Product Supply in Q1 from Lower Run
	Due to unplanned refinery outages in Asia, US (Cold
90	snap) and Russia (Drone attacks)
Global Refinery Run (MBD)
85
80

75

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun	Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
			2015-2019 Range			2022
		2023	2024
			Avg 2015-2019

Source : EA (Apr'24)

The Elevated Geopolitical Backdrop

will be the upside risk for crude oil price and product cracks

Russia-Ukraine

Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian energy infrastructure

Middle East Conflicts

Iran-Isarael,Isarael-Hamas

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

SG GRM ($/BBL)

Increasing margins due to tight product supply from refinery outages

					Q1'24 7.3
					$1.8/BBL (QoQ)
					Q2TD : $4.5/BBL
2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
				Q1TD as of 3 Mar 2024

Key Performance Highlight

Higher GIM Owing to Improving Refining Margins and Aromatic Contributions

5

Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook	Final Remark
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	CFP Progress	ESG & Recognitions

Refinery

Aromatic & LAB

Lube

Contribution ($/bbl)

Murban OSP	Crude Price
5.00	3.30	1.10
Dubai Price
80.20	83.80	81.20

9.0 $/bbl	1.1 $/bbl	0.4 $/bbl
QoQ 1.8 $/bbl	QoQ 0.1 $/bbl	QoQ 0.1 $/bbl

• Lower crude oil price owing to concerns on global economic slowdown, coupled with higher supply from Non- OPEC including US, Canada and Guyana
• Higher gasoline spread supported by lower supply from US refinery shutdown due to cold snap
• Softer middle distillate cracks from higher supply in region after arbitrage flow from Asia to EU was uneconomical due to high freight cost. Besides, demand for heating oil reduced after EU switched to use cheaper gas
• Increasing HSFO spread driven by higher bunker demand and lower supply from OPEC+ cut
• Lower crude premium due to higher ME crude supply from ME refinery maintenance
• Slightly softer PX margin from concerns over global economic slowdown and persistent low PTA margin
• Higher BZ margin from tight BZ supply after BZ producers shut their production due to cold snap and persistent low BZ inventory in China
• Lower LAB contribution from concerns over economic slowdown, higher supply after LAB producer in India restart its production after finished maintenance, and high BZ price
• Increasing Base Oil margin due to limited supply from lower export from Japan and plant maintenance in Asia
• Softer Bitumen spread from higher HSFO price and softer demand from limited on-going road projects and funding

Q1/23 Q4/23 Q1/24

10.0	Market GRM	9.0
7.2

Stock G/(L)

					(3.5)				(5.0)					0.1
					Q1/23		Q4/23	Q1/24
											GIM
Mkt	11.8				8.6					10.4
Acc	8.3				3.6					10.5
																0.4
					1.1											1.1
					0.9				0.5
					6.4								8.9
								1.0
									2.1
					Q1/23		Q4/23	Q1/24
					Refinery			Aromatic & LAB		Lube

Key Business Highlight

Low Refinery Utilization due to CDU-3 Unplanned Shutdown

Key Highlights	Performance	Outlook
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights
Operational		Commercial

6

	Final Remark
CFP Progress	ESG & Recognitions

Financial

High and Reliable Refinery Production

Crude Optimization

Continuously Enhanced Cost Management

U-Rate %	Q1/23	Q4/23	Q1/24
Refinery	112%	111%	105% (1)
Aromatics	67%	79%	76%
LAB	121%	123%	120%
Base Oil	79%	76%	70%

1%

7%

92%

6%

94%

1%

5%

94%

Others i.e. WAF, US

Far East

Local

Middle

East

Operating Cost

Interest Expense

2.8	2.6	2.1
2.4
0.9	0.7
0.7	0.7
1.9	1.9	1.4	1.7
FY/22	FY/23	Q1/23	Q1/24

Successful Repurchased USD Bond 120 MUSD

1. CDU-3unplanned shutdown in Jan'24

Optimized Production

Q1/23

Q4/23

Q1/24

Capture High Local & Indochina Sales

(Mar-Apr'24)

Repurchased Amount

120 MUSD (2)

Booked extra gain in Q1/24

18%18%

16%16%

39%37%

18%

18%

37%

GASOLINE

JET

DIESEL

	Q1/23	Q4/23	Q1/24
Local	87%	84%	87%
Indochina	10%	13%	10%
Other exports	3%	3%	3%

232 MB (3)

Note: (2) A portion of US$600 million Debentures due in 2050. Repurchased amount in Q1 and Q2 was 24.6 and 95.4 MUSD, respectively, Therefore, the debentures outstanding due in 2050 was US$480 million

1. Extra gain to be booked in Q1/24 and Q2/24

S&P revised up standalone to "BB-"(Apr'24)

Q1/23

Q4/23

Q1/24

S&P Global Ratings affirmed 'BBB' Rating With

Stable Outlook; SACP Revised Up To 'BB-' from "B+"

Key Progress on Clean Fuel Project (CFP)	7
Key Highlights	Performance		Outlook	Final Remark
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	CFP Progress	ESG & Recognitions

Capacity Growth	Upgrading Product Mix
	Unit : % vol by grade

Key Progress (Commercial)

• Collaborate with PTT Group to secure heavy crude purchase

400 KBD

(+40%)

275 KBD

	25%	Light
	Distillate
23%	62%	Middle
53%	Distillate
17%		(Diesel/Jet)
13%		Other
7%	0%	Fuel Oil

and gain experience on heavy crude trading activity

• Collaborate with partnership to secure product offtake

Key Progress (Construction)

Existing

With CFP

Existing

With CFP

Progress

as of Mar'24

• HDS-4 test run successfully and

produced on-specEURO-5 Gasoil

since mid of February

Feedstock Flexibility	Heavy Crude Sources
Unit : % vol
40-50%Light

96.0%

• All Modules were completely installed

Going Forward

		Crude	North	Middle
		America	East
		Medium
	5 - 15%
100%		Crude
	Heavy
40-50%
		Crude		South

		America
Existing	With CFP

• CDU-4 Complex is under focused for being ready to the next sequential test run

• CDU-4 Complex hydro-test and Instrument loop check are under

conducted

• RHCU/HCU construction is in progress

HDS-4	CDU-4	RHCU
Successfully Start up
Complex Start Up	Start Up
(Feb'24)

Our Commitment towards Sustainability		8
Key Highlights	Performance	Outlook		Final Remark
Key Market Highlight	Key Performance Highlights	Key Business Highlights	CFP Progress	ESG & Recognitions
		The Highest Score (Top1%) for
Sustainability Awards of Honor	Sustainable Development for the		Highest Rating "AAA" in SET ESG
in SET Awards 2023		9th year & DJSI Member for 11th		Ratings as a sustainable stock listed
for 6th Consecutive years		consecutive year in oil & gas		for 9th Consecutive year
		refining and marketing industry

E	S	G
ENVIRONMENT	SOCIAL	GOVERNANCE

	Hope Library for Wat Manorom School	Thaioil Sport for Youth
	Thaioil donated 300 books to the library	Thaioil and Thailand Swimming Association
Highlight CSR Activities	including story books, general	set up a program to train swimming skills to
knowledge books and educational	youth in Lamchabang, which aims to
in Q1/ 2024
books for children	reduce drowning incidents

Presentation Agenda

Q1/24

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

OUTLOOK

FINAL REMARK

9

Financial Performance							10
Higher Net Operating Profit from Improving Refinery and Aromatics Business
	Key Highlights		Performance			Outlook		Final Remark
Overall	Refinery	Aromatic & LAB	Base Oil	GIM	Power	Olefins	Solvent & Ethanol	All business	F/S & others

TOP Group Net Profit and Contribution*

Q1/23	Q4/23	Q1/24

4,554 MB

2,944 MB

5,863 MB

Unit : Million Baht (MB)

Stock g/l & Write down on crude & product inventory

Q1/24

TOP Group Net Profit

5,863

Q4/23: 2,944

2,919 (QoQ)

Net Operating Profit

8,798

Q4/23 : 5,266

3,532 (QoQ)

Stock G/(L) & Write down on crude & product inventory

(742)

Q4/23 : (3,337)

2,595 (QoQ)

Other Items

Net operating profit

Other items incl FX g/l on asset & liability, hedging g/l, tax & non- recurring items(1)

Remark : (1) Other Items Details

• Financial Instruments gain/(loss), and unrealized on financial instruments gain/(loss), and others : Q1/23 645 MB, Q4/23 919 MB, Q1/24 (110) MB

• Foreign exchange gain / (loss) on foreign currency assets and liabilities : Q1/23 (619) MB, Q4/23 806 MB, Q1/24 763 MB

• Reversal of income tax (expense) : Q1/23 (1,805) MB, Q4/23 (710) MB, Q1/24 (1,464) MB

(2,193)

Q4/23 : 1,015

3,208 (QoQ)

Q1/23Q4/23Q1/24

*Contribution excluding Stock g/(l) & one-time items

Petroleum & Lube

Petchem

Power

Others & New Business