Talking Points
- GBPNZD clears resistance / 200DMA- Scalp bias bullish
- Pair now at resistance- looking to buy dips while above 1.96
- Major event risk tomorrow from the UK
GBPNZD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
- GBPNZD breaks above key resistance / May opening range high- bullish
- Resistance objectives 1.9757, ~ 1.9840 (TL resistance) & 1.9895-1.9916
- Support now at 1.9600/26, 1.9432/53- bullish invalidation
- Daily RSI resistance trigger break dating back to 2013- bullish
- Event Risk Ahead: UK 1Q GDP Tomorrow
GBPNZD Scalp Chart
Notes: The GBPNZD has posted an impressive rally off the May lows with the pair taking out key resistance & the monthly opening range this week. Interim resistance stands at 1.9757 which is defined by the 50% retracement of the descent off the 2014 high as well as the April high (1.9759) and a breach above this mark further validates our broader bias.
Intra-day RSI divergence at the highs and a clear support trigger in momentum has our immediate focus weighted to the downside against 1.9757 at the close of US trade. Bottom line: look to buy pullback’s in the pair heading into the close of the month while above the 1.9647/66 with only a break below the 1.96-handle invalidating our near-term directional bias. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Technical Relevance |
Bearish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 1.9757 | 50% Retracement / April High |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 1.9800/11 | Big Figure / 1.618% Fib Extension |
Break Target 2 | Daily / 30min | ~1.9840 | TL Resistance (Support Mirror) |
Break Target 3 | 30min | 1.9875 | Soft Resistance / Pivot |
Break Target 4 | Daily / 30min | 1.9895 – 1.9916 | 61.8% Retracement / 1.618% Ext |
Support Target 1 | 30min | 1.9705 | Soft Support / NY Session Low |
Bullish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 1.9648/66 | 23.6% Retrace / 100% Ext / 100DMA |
Break Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 1.9598 - 1.9609 | 38.2% Retracement / 200DMA |
Break Target 2 | 30min | 1.9576 | 38.2% Retracement |
Break Target 3 | 30min | 1.9518 | 50% Retracement |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 1.9460 | 61.8% Retracement |
Break Target 5 | 30min | 1.9430 | Weekly ORL |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 137 | Profit Targets 32-35pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- AUDUSD Scalps Target Channel Break- Bearish Sub 9300
- GBPAUD Scalps Target Key Resistance- Bullish Above 1.7920
- USDOLLAR, Gold Setups Target Key Resistance- Breakouts Pending
- GBPUSD Risks Major Support Break Ahead of Key UK/US Data- 1.6820 Key
- NZDJPY Monthly Opening Range Trade- Bearish Sub 89.50
- EURAUD Scalp Setup Favors Selling Rallies Sub-1.5030
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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