By Let's start with GDP. In a recent statement, the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, puts the loss to the British economy since leaving the European Union at £140 billion (at least $170 billion), i.e. in the absence of growth compared to the G7 countries. An assessment corroborated by Cambridge Econometrics, which estimates that the size of the country's economy is 6% smaller than it would have been had it remained in the union, and adds that 3 million jobs would still be at risk by 2035, while 1.8 million have already been lost. Private investment, according to Cambridge Econometrics, has also fallen by over 30% since Leave.
Another chilling figure comes from Begbies Traynor, which claims that over 47,000 British companies are on the brink of bankruptcy as we enter 2024. The number of companies in a critical situation is said to have risen by 25% in the last quarter of 2023, regardless of the global economic gloom. He goes even further, reporting nearly 540,000 companies in financial distress. The real estate, construction, healthcare and education sectors would be the hardest hit, according to this corporate restructuring specialist.
In the academic world, the situation is just as worrying. With Brexit, a third of the territory's universities have seen a drop in applications from non-EU students, who account for 20% of their income. Higher education's contribution to the economy is estimated at £130 billion a year. The loss per national student is therefore expected to reach £5,000 by 2030, reports the Financial Times. Other sources of funding - public funds, private investment and research collaborations with industry - are equally under threat, and flows from the European Union have all but dried up.
All studies, including the less alarmist one by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), point to the exit from the single market as the reason for this decline. Begbies Traynor's report also points out that, apart from inflation, low consumer confidence and rising, unpredictable production costs, the biggest risk facing companies is debt. Against a backdrop of high interest rates, 2024 is likely to be an even more deadly year for the British economy than previous ones.
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