ECB Forum on Central Banking, November 2020

Event held online

Conference proceedings

Contents

Programme	3
Central banks in a shifting world: takeaways from the ECB's online
Sintra Forum	5
By Philipp Hartmann and Glenn Schepens
Monetary policy in a pandemic emergency	20
By Christine Lagarde
De-globalisation? Global value chains in the post-COVID-19 age	28
By Pol Antràs
De-globalisation? The recent slowdown of global trade and prospects
for future rebalancing	81
By Susan Lund
Macro-financial implications of climate change and the carbon transition	90
By Frederick van der Ploeg
Discussion of "Macro-financial implications of climate change and the
carbon transition" by Frederick van der Ploeg	143
By Signe Krogstrup
The decline in r* and the ECB strategy	151
By Jordi Galí
Informal central bank communication	156
By Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
The decline in euro area inflation and the choice of policy strategy	169
By Volker Wieland
Monetary policy challenges from falling natural interest rates	186
By Klaus Adam
Discussion of "Monetary policy challenges from falling natural interest
rates" by Klaus Adam	210
By Argia M. Sbordone
Fiscal rules, policy and macroeconomic stabilization in the euro area	221
By Evi Pappa
Discussion of Evi Pappa's "Fiscal rules, policy and macroeconomic
stabilization in the euro area"	265
By Vitor Gaspar
De- and inflationary traps: strengthening ECB's second pillar to avoid
fiscal and financial dominance	275

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By Markus K. Brunnermeier
Non-standard monetary policy instruments: effectiveness and risks	283
By Lucrezia Reichlin
Central bank balance sheets and financial stability	295
By Hyun Song Shin

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Programme

Wednesday, 11 November 2020

14:00-14:30 Introductory speech

Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank

Session 1: Implications of fundamental global changes for central banks

14:30-15:30 De-globalisation? Global value chains in the post-COVID-19 age

Pol Antràs, Professor, Harvard University

Discussant: Susan Lund, Partner, McKinsey Global Institute

Chair: Luis de Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank

15:30-15:45 Break

15:45-16:45 Macro-financial implications of climate change and the carbon transition

Frederick van der Ploeg, Professor, University of Oxford Discussant: Signe Krogstrup, Governor, Danmarks Nationalbank Chair: Luis de Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank

16:45-17:00 Break

17:00-18:00 Panel: Inflation objective, structural forces and central bank communication

Jordi Galí, Professor, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, Professor, University of California, Berkeley

Volker Wieland, Professor, Goethe University Frankfurt

Chair: Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

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Thursday, 12 November 2020

	Session 2: Macroeconomic stabilisation frameworks in a new
	economic environment
14:00-15:00	Monetary policy challenges from falling natural interest rates
	Klaus Adam, Professor, University of Mannheim
	Discussant: Argia Sbordone, Vice-President and Function Head,
	Macroeconomic and Monetary Studies Function, Federal Reserve
	Bank of New York
	Chair: Fabio Panetta, member of the Executive Board, European
	Central Bank
15:00-15:15	Break
15:15-16:15	Fiscal rules, policy and macroeconomic stabilization in the
	euro area
	Evi Pappa, Professor, Unversidad Carlos III Madrid
	Discussant: Vítor Gaspar, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department,
	International Monetary Fund
	Chair: Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board, European
	Central Bank
16:15-16:30	Break
16:30-17:30	Panel: Monetary policy instruments and financial stability
	Markus Brunnermeier, Professor, Princeton University
	Lucrezia Reichlin, Professor, London Business School
	Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of Research, Bank
	for International Settlements
	Chair: Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board, European
	Central Bank
17:00-17:45	Break
17:45-18:45	Policy panel
	Andrew Bailey, Governor, Bank of England
	Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank
	Jerome H. Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal
	Reserve System
	Moderator: Roula Khalaf, Editor, Financial Times
18:45	Young economists' award announcement and closing remarks

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