Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)

For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, September 1, 2021	USDL-21-1569
Technical information:
Employment:	[phone] • [e-mail] • www.bls.gov/sae
Unemployment:	[phone] • [e-mail] • www.bls.gov/lau
Media contact:	[phone] • [e-mail]

METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT - JULY 2021

Unemployment rates were lower in July than a year earlier in 388 of the 389 metropolitan areas and higher in 1 area, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 31 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and 7 areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 142 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 247 areas. The national unemployment rate in July was 5.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted, down from 10.5 percent a year earlier.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly programs. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the national household survey estimates. These data pertain to individuals by where they reside. The employment data are from an establishment survey that measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. These data pertain to jobs on payrolls defined by where the establishments are located. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodologies used by these two programs, see the Technical Note.

Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In July, Logan, UT-ID, and Lincoln, NE, had the lowest unemployment rates, 1.8 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. Yuma, AZ, had the highest rate, 20.1 percent. A total of 251 areas had July jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 5.7 percent, 132 areas had rates above it, and 6 areas had rates equal to that of the nation. (See table 1 and map 1.)

The largest over-the-year unemployment rate decrease in July occurred in Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI (-14.1 percentage points). Rates fell over the year by at least 10.0 percentage points in an additional three areas. The only over-the-year unemployment rate increase was in Pueblo, CO (+0.8 percentage point).

Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, Salt Lake City, UT, and Oklahoma City, OK, had the lowest jobless rates in July, 2.8 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and Los Angeles-LongBeach-Anaheim, CA, had the highest unemployment rates, 9.4 percent and 9.3 percent, respectively. All 51 large areas had over-the-year unemployment rate decreases. The largest jobless rate declines were in Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

(-10.3 percentage points), and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (-10.2 points). The smallest over-the- year rate decreases occurred in Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (-2.0 percentage points), and Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN(-2.2 points).

Metropolitan Division Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 38 metropolitan divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In July, Nashua, NH-MA, had the lowest division unemployment rate, 3.6 percent, closely followed by Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI, 3.7 percent. Los Angeles-LongBeach-Glendale, CA, had the highest rate among the divisions, 10.2 percent. (See table 2.)

In July, all 38 metropolitan divisions had over-the-year unemployment rate decreases. Philadelphia, PA, had the largest rate decline (-9.4 percentage points). The smallest rate decrease occurred in Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD (-2.9 percentage points).

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In July, 142 metropolitan areas had over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment and 247 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year employment increases occurred in New York- Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (+558,300), Los Angeles-LongBeach-Anaheim, CA (+359,300), and Dallas-FortWorth-Arlington, TX (+211,100). The largest over-the-year percentage gains in employment occurred in Ocean City, NJ (+21.9 percent), Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI (+21.1 percent), and Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ (+14.1 percent). (See table 3 and map 2.)

Over the year, nonfarm employment increased in all 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more. The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment in these large metropolitan areas occurred in Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY (+9.6 percent), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (+9.5 percent), and Providence-Warwick,RI-MA, and Rochester, NY (+8.7 percent each).

Metropolitan Division Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In July, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 metropolitan divisions and was essentially unchanged in 6 divisions over the year. The largest over-the-year increase in employment among the metropolitan divisions occurred in New York-JerseyCity-White Plains, NY-NJ (+422,800), followed by Los Angeles-LongBeach-Glendale, CA (+242,900), and Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (+171,800). (See table 4.)

The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment occurred in Lynn-Saugus-Marblehead, MA (+9.5 percent), San Rafael, CA (+8.5 percent), and Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA (+8.2 percent).

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The State Employment and Unemployment news release for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 17, 2021, at 10:00 a.m. (ET). The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for August is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, September 29, 2021, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on July 2021

Establishment and Household Survey Data

Data collection for both surveys was affected by the pandemic. In the establishment survey, more data continued to be collected by web than in months prior to the pandemic. In the household survey, for the safety of both interviewers and respondents, in-person interviews were conducted only when telephone interviews could not be done.

For information on the modifications made to the Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimation and methodological procedures due to the impact of COVID-19, see www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm.

For the July 2021 estimates of household employment and unemployment from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program, BLS continued to implement level-shift outliers in the employment and/or unemployment inputs to the state models, based on statistical evaluation of movements in each area's inputs. These level shifts preserved movements in the published estimates that the models otherwise would have discounted, without requiring changes to how the models create estimates at other points in the time series.

The "Frequently asked questions" document at www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-july-2021.htm extensively discusses the impact of a misclassification in the household survey on the national estimates for July 2021. Despite the considerable decline in its degree relative to prior months, this misclassification continued to be widespread geographically, with BLS analysis indicating that most states again were affected to at least some extent, which in turn affected the official LAUS estimates for July 2021.

Household data for substate areas are controlled to the employment and unemployment totals for their respective model-based areas. Hence, the preliminary July and revised June estimates for substate areas reflect the use of level-shift outliers, where implemented, in the inputs for their model-based control areas. The substate area estimates also were impacted by misclassification in the household survey, in proportion to the impacts of the misclassifications on the data for their model-based control areas.

Household data for Puerto Rico are not modeled, but rather are derived from a monthly household survey similar to the Current Population Survey. The Puerto Rico Department of Labor has reported a misclassification in its household survey similar in nature to the misclassification in the Current Population Survey, which has affected the local area data proportionally.

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Technical Note

Special technical note: This technical note describes the procedures regularly used on a monthly basis to develop estimates from the CES survey and the LAUS program. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, some of the procedures described in this technical note have been modified. The modifications are briefly described in the box note of this news release. More information on the changes to the CES business birth-death model is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm.

This news release presents civilian labor force and unemployment data from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program (tables 1 and 2) for 389 metropolitan statistical areas and metropolitan New England City and Town Areas (NECTAs), plus 7 areas in Puerto Rico. Estimates for 38 metropolitan and NECTA divisions also are presented. Nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program (tables 3 and 4) are provided for the same areas. State estimates were previously published in the news release State Employment and Unemployment, and are republished in this news release for ease of reference. The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative endeavors.

Civilian labor force and unemployment-from the LAUS program

Definitions. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the official national estimates obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. The LAUS program measures employed persons and unemployed persons on a place-of-residence basis. The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Employed persons are those who did any work at all for pay or profit in the reference week (typically the week including the 12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm, plus those not working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether or not paid, for such reasons as labor-management dispute, illness, or vacation. Unemployed persons are those who were not employed during the reference week (based on the definition above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the 4-week period ending with the reference week, and were currently available for work; persons on layoff expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force.

Method of estimation. Estimates for states, the District of Columbia, the Los Angeles-LongBeach-Glendale metropolitan division, and New York City are produced using time-series models with real-time benchmarking to national CPS totals. Model-based estimates are also produced for the

following areas and their respective balances: the Chicago- Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL Metropolitan Division; Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area; Detroit- Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area; Miami- Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Metropolitan Division; and Seattle- Bellevue-Everett, WA Metropolitan Division. Modeling improves the statistical basis of the estimation for these areas and provides important tools for analysis, such as measures of errors and seasonally adjusted series. For all other substate areas in this news release, estimates are prepared through indirect estimation procedures using a building-block approach. Estimates of employed persons, which are based largely on "place of work" estimates from the CES program, are adjusted to refer to place of residence as used in the CPS. Unemployment estimates are aggregates of persons previously

employed in industries covered by state Unemployment Insurance (UI) laws and entrants to the labor force from the CPS. The substate estimates of employment and unemployment, which geographically exhaust the entire state, are adjusted proportionally to ensure that they add to the independently estimated model-based area totals. A detailed description of the estimation procedures is available from BLS upon request.

Annual revisions. Civilian labor force and unemployment data shown for the prior year reflect adjustments made at the beginning of each year, usually implemented with the issuance of January estimates. The adjusted model-based estimates typically reflect updated population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in other input data sources, and model re-estimation. All substate estimates then are re-estimated using updated inputs and adjusted to add to the revised model-based totals. In early 2021, a new generation of time-series models was implemented, resulting in the replacement of data back to the series beginnings.

Employment-from the CES program

Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by

the previous month's employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.

For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases, a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different models (Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry level being estimated. For more detailed information about each model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.

Seasonal adjustment. Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted for states, metropolitan areas, and metropolitan divisions at the total nonfarm level. For states, data are seasonally adjusted at the supersector level as well. Revisions to historical data for the most recent 5 years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark adjustments.

Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted concurrently, using all available estimates, including those for the current month, to develop sample-based seasonal factors. Concurrent sample-based factors are created every month for the current month's preliminary estimate as well as the previous month's final estimate.

Reliability of the estimates

The estimates presented in this news release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability-that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of rounding.

Use of error measures

Civilian labor force and unemployment estimates. Measures of sampling error are not available for metropolitan areas or metropolitan divisions. Model-basederror measures for states are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/lau/lastderr.htm. Measures of nonsampling error are not available for the areas contained in this news release. Information on recent data revisions for states and local areas is available online at www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm.

Employment estimates. Changes in metropolitan area nonfarm payroll employment are cited in the analysis of this news release only if they have been determined to be statistically significant at the 90-percent confidence level. Measures of sampling error for the total nonfarm employment series are available for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions at www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Measures of sampling error for more detailed series at the area and division level are available upon request. Measures of sampling error for states at the supersector level and for the private service- providing, goods-producing, total private and total nonfarm levels are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Information on recent benchmark revisions is available online at www.bls.gov/web/laus/benchmark.pdf.

Area definitions

The substate area data published in this news release reflect the delineations issued by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on April 10, 2018. Data reflect New England City and Town Area (NECTA) definitions, rather than county-based definitions, in the six New England States. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available online at www.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm.

Additional information

Estimates of unadjusted and seasonally adjusted civilian labor force and unemployment data for states and seven substate areas are available in the news release State Employment and Unemployment. Estimates of civilian labor force and unemployment for all states, metropolitan areas, counties, cities with a population of 25,000 or more, and other areas used in the administration of various federal economic assistance programs are available online at www.bls.gov/lau/. Employment data from the CES program are available on the BLS website at www.bls.gov/sae/.

Information in this news release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone]; Federal Relay Service: [phone].