S&P warns about a no deal Brexit. Standard and Poor's believes that in the event of a no deal, the United Kingdom's rating would be at risk because this scenario (which it does not believe is the most likely) would lead the country into recession. The European Commission has also indicated that it is ready to "act quickly against financial risk" in the absence of an agreement, by allowing the European institutions access to clearing houses located in London.


The Trans-Pacific Agreement will enter into force this year. As a reminder, it is a trade treaty between eleven countries on either side of the Pacific. The aim is to diversify their markets and remove tariffs in order to counter the threat of protectionism, particularly from the United States, which has decided not to sign the agreement last March. All that was needed was an additional signature among the remaining six countries (Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Peru, Vietnam and Brunei) for the agreement to enter into force, and Australia was the first to decide. The partnership will come into effect "on December 30 this year", says Scott Morrison, the Australian Prime Minister.

The executive is shaping up in Brazil. The leader of the Social Liberal Party (PSL, far right), Gustavo Bebianno, announced yesterday that the composition of the government of the new President Bolsonaro will be announced next Monday and specifies that 80% of the members have already been chosen. Economist Paulo Guedes, Bolsonaro's adviser to whom the head of a "super ministry" has been promised, calls for pension reform to reduce the country's budget deficit.

Status quo. The Central Bank of Japan has decided to leave its interest rates unchanged. The short-term deposit rate remains at -0.10%. Inflation forecasts have also not changed: the 2% target will not be reached until spring 2021 at best. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the annual rate of government bond buybacks remains at 80 trillion yen (about $710 billion).

Italy’s populists are insisting their plans to ramp up government spending will shield the nation from recession, brushing off warnings that their confrontational approach may already be hurting the economy. In a statement late Tuesday seen by Bloomberg, the Treasury said it received an Oct. 29 letter from the European Commission asking Italy to submit further details on its plan to reduce the country’s debt. "Italy’s public debt remains a key vulnerability," according to the Commission. "Such high public debt constrains the government’s room of maneuver for more productive investment for the benefit of its citizens. Given the size of the Italian economy, it is a source of common concern for the euro area as a whole." Italy confirmed it will reply to the Commission by the November 13 deadline.