Upcoming elections could see a political reset if the ruling party loses control of
There are only three ways the impasse could break. The first is that the reformist faction within the party led by President
The
With a president oriented towards consensus and process, trying to hold the various ideologies and beliefs together in a single ANC tent is difficult. Also, the secretary-general benefits from an extraordinarily expansive mandate. He is the party's chief administrative officer, keeps record of national meetings and should ensure that all the key structures and units carry out their duties properly.
With a president oriented towards consensus and process, holding the ANC together is difficult
According to the ANC's constitution, secretary-general Magashule can only be removed at the next elective conference at the end of 2022 when the party again votes on the National Executive Committee (NEC) members and the top six.
A decision by the
But what if Magashule refuses to step aside and rallies support within the NEC to stay on as secretary-general? This could become the ultimate test in the battle for ANC leadership and takes us to the second option - the electoral prospects of an ANC that's rapidly losing voter support.
That process could start in 2021 in Gauteng with local government elections that will set the scene for the provincial and national elections in 2024. During voting in 2019, support for the ANC fell to 53.2% in Gauteng and had, during the 2016 local government polls, been at only 46% while that for the
Unseating the ANC in Gauteng would require a remarkable political performance from opposition parties
Even so, unseating the ANC in Gauteng would require a remarkable political performance from the new
Mashaba would have to pull sufficient non-voters and ANC members to his party to form a credible and stable governing coalition, targeting the three metros - Tshwane,
Mashaba's challenge is that
Should the ANC split, Ramaphosa would likely be able to cobble together a governing coalition
For the ANC the stakes are high. In Fate of the Nation I speculated that once the ANC loses
The third option for a political reset is for an ANC split, with the two dominant factions facing an acrimonious divorce. If that were to happen, and once the dust settles, the rump of the ANC support base would likely go with Ramaphosa -
But the party would probably lose its national majority, Gauteng, and possibly even its majorities in other provinces such as Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State. As leader of
But he would need national and provincial coalition partners to govern. It would be messy, and might well mean the end of the ANC as the dominant force in South African politics. An ANC split remains unlikely, however, since it is the business and career opportunities available from membership that keep everyone in the same tent.
In the short term, all eyes are on the NPA's response to the mountain of evidence against the so-called leader of the gangster state, the title of a damning book on Magashule's time as premier of Free State province. A decision to prosecute Magashule would severely weaken his faction, but only if Ramaphosa uses that opportunity to stamp his authority on the ANC.
Eventually some of these scenarios may follow one another or combine. Whichever it is,
Copyright Institute for Security Studies. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com)., source