Office Market
Outlook
Prepared for Alony Hetz Properties & Investments Ltd
2024 Capital Markets Annual Meeting
March 2024
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not necessarily purport to be a complete analysis of the topics discussed, which are inherently unpredictable. It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified those sources and we do not guarantee that the information in the report is accurate or complete. Any views expressed in the report reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notice. Statements that are forward-looking involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be materially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements. Advice we give to clients in particular situations may differ from the views expressed in this report. No investment or other business decisions should be made based solely on the views expressed in this report.
Macroeconomic Outlook for 2024
Uncertainty remains, but momentum should build as the year progresses
Growth | Inflation/Prices | Interest rates | Risks & uncertainty |
Growth to be slower, but still | Inflation is falling, but prices | Policy rates have peaked, but | Another year of elevated |
mostly positive in 2024-with | remain elevated, and risks | central banks may hold higher | geopolitical tensions, policy |
momentum building in H2 | remain | for longer than markets | risks, and election uncertainty |
expect |
Source: JLL Research
2 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Uncertainty around the growth outlook is wide - many forecasts incorporate positive and negative views
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (%) | 2024 GDP growth forecast (% YoY) |
(%)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-20Sep-20May-21Jan-22Sep-22May-23Jan-24
7 | ||
6 | GDP projections have | |
generally been revised | ||
5 | up, but in most cases |
set to decline slightly | |
4 | from 2023 |
3 | |
2 | |
1 | |
0 | |
-1 | |
-2 |
Forecast range | Median forecast | ||
Source: JLL Research
3 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Future office demand considerations: Balancing cyclical and long-term factors
Cyclical Factors | Long Term Factors |
Economic growth
Growth outlook is expected to be weak, but mostly positive, for major economies in 2024, with momentum expected to build in the latter half of the year
Rising cost
Inflation is falling, but price levels are expected to remain elevated
Job growth
Firms continue to recruit more than they are laying off, leaving job vacancy rates elevated compared to historic norms
Return-to-workmetrics Office re-entry rates have improved and reached a post- pandemic high in 2023, surpassing and plateauing around 50% overall
Hybrid-working
Employers are finalizing hybrid work policies, with a wave of major employers recently reversing remote-first work
Office utilization
Ratio of unassigned seating to dedicated desks is increasing as some employees trade assigned spaces for locational flexibility
Sustainable buildings
Sustainable buildings are likely to drive greater interest from occupiers on account of the reduced operating and energy costs
Flight-to-quality
Tenants are upgrading their offices with premium amenities and hospitality services to help lure remote workers back to the office
Source: JLL Research
4 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
U.S. re-entry rates reflect growing dominance of three-day
workweek; further gains in office attendance will likely be incremental
Placer.AI weekly average attendance rate
70%
65% | 63.5% |
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
Jan-22 | Feb-22 | Mar-22 | Apr-22 | May-22 | Jun-22 | Jul-22 | Aug-22 | Sep-22 | Oct-22 | Nov-22 | Dec-22 | Jan-23 | Feb-23 | Mar-23 | Apr-23 | May-23 | Jun-23 | Jul-23 | Aug-23 | Sep-23 | Oct-23 | Nov-23 | Dec-23 |
Source: JLL Research,Placer.ai, KPMG
5 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
KPMG 2023 CEO Outlook
of CEOs believe hybrid | ||
64% | schedules will transition | |
back to pre-pandemic | ||
attendance frequency by | ||
2026 | ||
Company | Initial Policy | Current/Announced Policy |
Fidelity Investments | 1/4 weeks | 2/4 weeks |
Deutsche Bank | 3 days/week | 4 days/week |
Deere | 2 days/week | 4 days/week |
L'Oreal | 3 days/week | 3 days/week + 2 Fri./month |
UPS | 3 days/week | 5 days/week |
JPMorgan | 3 days/week | 5 days/week |
Disney | 3 days/week | 4 days/week |
USAA | 3 days/week | 4 days/week |
Boeing | 3 days/week | 4-5 days/week |
Geico | 2 days/week | 4 days/week |
BlackRock | 3 days/week | 4 days/week |
Verizon | 1 day/week | 3-4 days/week |
Nike | 3 days/week | 4 days/week |
Nationwide Insurance | 1 day/week | 2 days/week |
Daimler Trucks | 2 days/week | 4 days/week |
Office utilization is increasing as the ratio of unassigned seating to dedicated desks increases
1950s 1960s
- Traditional closed office layouts comprised the dominant design, with open office plans a more niche emerging concept.
- Large private offices; not uncommon for executives to have private offices in excess of 500 s.f.
- Introduction of new technologies including copy machines and computers.
- Design trends focused on improved employee experience: air conditioning became widespread in offices in the 1950s, designs incorporated more vibrant color and patterns to create vibrant work environments.
1970s 1980s
- Departure from traditional closed office layouts and increased adoption of open office plans featuring low or no partitions and a central working area, designed to promote collaboration.
- Introduction of first computer workstations, technology featured in offices more prominently which necessitated new infrastructure to manage cables.
- Growing focus on employee comfort: improved furniture, natural light, improved aesthetics.
1990s 2000s
- Continued emphasis on collaboration drives increased adoption of open office plans - private offices become rarer and smaller.
- Technology becomes deeply integrated to offices - computer workstations become ubiquitous, increased infrastructure for hardware and wireless networks, first instances of remote work.
- Decreased reliance on paper begins to eliminate space dedicated to file storage.
- Design begins to focus on sustainability and wellness, introducing fitness centers, standing desks and other amenities.
2010s 2020s
- Open offices transition to activity- based working, providing different spaces for employees to self-select based on work preferences.
- Continued gradual shift away from private offices, plateauing of downsizing of private offices.
- Continued shift towards paperless offices eliminates space needs for file storage, increased adoption of technology leads to greater space dedicated to technology infrastructure.
- Design focuses on wellness and engagement: amenitized offices with curated events and activities for social engagement.
250-350 | 225-300 | 175-250 | 150-175 | |||
s.f. per employee | s.f. per employee | s.f. per employee | s.f. per employee | |||
Source: JLL Research
6 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Office flight-to-quality trend becoming structural
Structural shift in demand for highest quality assets | |||||
6% | |||||
4% | New / Differentiated assets | ||||
2% | Historical | ||||
performance | |||||
index | 0% | spread | |||
Wider | |||||
Demand | -2% | Future | |||
performance | |||||
spread | |||||
-4% | Commodity/ | ||||
Functional | |||||
-6% | Undifferentiated assets | ||||
obsolescence | |||||
-8% |
-10%
-12%
Pre-2020 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
Source: JLL Research
7 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
- A highly bifurcated market
- Focus on high-quality and differentiated space
- Construction pipeline peaking
- Accelerating obsolescence in Grade B and C space
Quality will be a major determinant of future performance
Tier 1: | 2015+ vintage assets |
Lifestyle | |
11% of total U.S. market by SF | |
Tier 2: | 2000-2014 build assets |
Differentiated | Pre-2000, substantially renovated after |
33% of total U.S. market by SF | |
2010 | |
Tier 3: | 1990-1999 build assets |
Repositionable | Pre-1990, renovated 1990-2009 |
24% of total U.S. market by SF | |
Repositionable at right cost basis | |
Tier 4: | |
Transitional / | Pre-1990 build, not substantially |
Functionally | renovated since completion |
Challenged | |
32% of total U.S. market by SF |
One Vanderbilt | Salesforce Tower | 1222 Demonbreun | ||||
New York City | San Francisco | Nashville | ||||
One Post Office Square | Old Main Post Office | Trammell Crow Center | ||||
Boston | Chicago | Dallas | ||||
Ponce Circle Tower | 311 S Wacker | Charlotte Plaza | ||||
Miami | Chicago | Charlotte | ||||
Bank of America Plaza | One Park Plaza | 135 S Lasalle | ||||
Dallas | Los Angeles | Chicago |
Source: JLL Research, *Sizable share of assets will be converted to alternative uses, demolished or remain functionally challenged. Analysis reflects top 20 U.S. MSAs, office assets 100k+ s.f.
8 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Rent growth in high-end product counterbalanced by persistent pressure from elevated concession packages and financing costs
Executed rental rates
Change since
Q4 2019:
Rent per s.f.
$100
+14%
$90
$80
+5%
$70
$60
-1%
$50
-6%
$40
$30
$20
$10 | Base Rate | Effective Rent | Trophy Base | Trophy Effective | ||||||
$0 | ||||||||||
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||||||
"Before COVID" |
Source: JLL Research. Note: Executed rents are weighted by lease size and term
9 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Behind the U.S. flight to quality: Positive absorption, positive rent growth, lower cap rates and greater investor conviction
Net absorption by vintage | ||||||||||||||||
Last 12 months absorption | ||||||||||||||||
2015-present | as a % of inventory | |||||||||||||||
121.6 | +6.4% | |||||||||||||||
2010-2014 | -8.0 | -2.6% | ||||||||||||||
2000s | -67.3 | -3.0% | ||||||||||||||
deliveryof | 1990s | -52.3 | -2.4% | |||||||||||||
Year | 1980s | -118.8 | -1.9% | |||||||||||||
1970s | -41.0 | -1.6% | ||||||||||||||
1960s | -1.8% | |||||||||||||||
-21.4 | ||||||||||||||||
Pre-1960 | -45.5 | -1.3% | ||||||||||||||
-150.0 | -100.0 | -50.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 150.0 | ||||||||||
Net absorption since COVID-19 onset (m.s.f.) |
Source: JLL Research, Real Capital Analytics (Transactions larger than $5.0 million)
10 | © 2024 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Demand bifurcation for higher-quality assets has expanded rent premium for newer-vintage product
$70 | ||||||||||
$65 | Average asking rent ($ p.s.f.) | |||||||||
p.s.f.) | $60 | Delivered since 2015 | ||||||||
$55 | $59.31 | |||||||||
($ | $50 | |||||||||
rent | $45 | 58.5% | ||||||||
$40 | ||||||||||
asking | ||||||||||
$35 | $37.41 | |||||||||
Average | $30 | |||||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |||
2015 | ||||||||||
Delivered before 2015 | ||||||||||
$25 | ||||||||||
New construction office assets continue to be valued at | ||||||||||
(%) | 7.8% | substantially lower cap rates than the broader market | ||||||||
7.4% | ||||||||||
rate | 7.0% | |||||||||
6.6% | ||||||||||
cap | ||||||||||
6.2% | ||||||||||
Average | ||||||||||
5.4% | ||||||||||
5.8% | ||||||||||
5.0% | ||||||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||
Overall office | New construction |
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Alony-Hetz Properties & Investments Ltd. published this content on 13 March 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 13 March 2024 06:27:04 UTC.