Polish CPI grew 17.4% y/y in November, well below the consensus, a flash estimate from Poland’s statistical office GUS showed on
The reading eased 0.5pp compared to October’s growth, the first y/y easing of the index since
“We assume that inflation will peak in the first quarter of 2023,”
Analysts say that the CPI should gradually decline during 2023, supported by the effect of a high reference base, but also by the improving situation in supply chains and lower pressure on commodity prices, including energy prices.
“Nevertheless, in our opinion, CPI inflation in 2023 will remain in double digits, and the pace of disinflation is subject to high uncertainty,”
The November inflation reading greatly reduces the dilemma of the
The NBP paused rate hikes in November, keeping the reference interest rate unchanged at 6.75%. The CPI and the GDP readings – the latter also published on
The increase in the inflation rate in November came on the back of growth in all major components, GUS showed in the breakdown of the data. Food prices grew 22.3% y/y in November, the flash estimate said – a pick up against a gain of 21.9% y/y in October.
Energy prices eased growth to 36.8% y/y in November after growing 41.7% y/y the preceding month. Growth in fuel prices also faltered to 15.5% y/y in November, compared to a gain of 19.5% y/y in October.
In monthly terms, the CPI increased 0.7% in November, slowing down by 1.1pp versus October’s monthly reading.
Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks eased growth by 1.1pp to 1.6% m/m in November. In the energy segment, prices fell 0.1% after growing 2% m/m the preceding month. Fuel prices slid 1.2% m/m after growing 4.1% m/m in October.
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