April 24, 2020 (PPI-OT)

MARI: Higher gas production and weaker PKR to lift 3QFY20 EPS to PKR 58.03 up by +35%YoY

Mari Petroleum Company Limited's (MARI) board meeting is scheduled on 28th Apr-20 to announce financial result for 3QFY20, where we expect the company to post earnings of PKR 7.74bn (EPS PKR 58.03), up by +35%YoY,

We estimate incline in earnings on the back a) 11%YoY PKR depreciation despite 15%YoY drop in oil prices, b) higher gas production from Mari field and, c) higher other income amid elevated mark-up income,

On quarterly basis, earnings are expected to increase by +6%QoQ on the back of higher gas production despite 11%QoQ drop in oil prices and average exchange rate appreciation by 1%QoQ,

We recommend a 'BUY" stance on MARI with our Dec-20 target price of PKR 1,609/share offering 49% upside from last close. The company is currently trading at FY21 P/E of 5.9x.

Earnings to clock in at PKR 58.03/share for 3QFY20, up by +35%YoY

Mari Petroleum Company Limited's (MARI) board meeting is scheduled on 28th Apr-20 to announce financial result for 3QFY20, where we expect the company to post earnings of PKR 7.74bn (EPS PKR 58.03), up by +35%YoY, compared to PKR 5.75bn (EPS PKR 43.11) in the same period last year. We estimate incline in earnings on the back a) 11%YoY PKR depreciation despite 15%YoY drop in oil prices, b) higher gas production from Mari field and, c) higher other income amid elevated mark-up income. Exploration cost is expected to rise by +89%YoY likely due to higher seismic data acquisition with no dry well cost incurred. This brings total profitability for 9MFY20E to PKR 22.49bn (EPS PKR 168.59) compared to PKR 16.81 (EPS PKR 126.0) in the same period last year.

Higher gas production to lift EPS on quarterly basis despite lower oil prices

On quarterly basis, earnings are expected to increase by +6%QoQ on the back of higher gas production despite 11%QoQ drop in oil prices and average exchange rate appreciation by 1%QoQ.

Gas production up by +8%YoY while oil production remained flat during 3QFY20

Total gas production for the Company increased by +8%YoY on the back of higher production from Mari field. This brings total gas production for 9MFY20 to 686mmcfd down by 2%YoY. Oil production remained flat on account of lower production from Halini and Halini Deep which was compensated by commencement of production from Dharian field. This brings total oil production to 1,082bopd down by 3%YoY for 9MFY20.

Recommendation

We recommend a 'BUY' stance on MARI with our Dec-20 target price of PKR 1,609/share offering 49% upside from last close. The company is currently trading at FY21 P/E of 5.9x.

© Pakistan Press International, source Asianet-Pakistan