Our strategy delivers value and returns
Andrew Mackenzie
Chief Executive Officer 14 May 2019
Western Australia Iron Ore
Disclaimer
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements which may include: trends in commodity prices and currency exchange rates; demand for commodities; plans; strategies and objectives of management; closure or divestment of certain operations or facilities (including associated costs); anticipated production or construction commencement dates; capital costs and scheduling; productivity gains; cost reductions; operating costs and shortages of materials and skilled employees; anticipated productive lives of projects, mines and facilities; provisions and contingent liabilities; tax and regulatory developments.
Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of terminology such as 'intend', 'aim', 'project', 'anticipate', 'estimate', 'plan', 'believe', 'expect', 'may', 'should', 'will', 'continue', 'annualised' or similar words. These statements discuss future expectations concerning the results of operations or financial condition, or provide other forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are not guarantees or predictions of future performance, and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control, and which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements contained in this presentation. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
For example, future revenues from our operations, projects or mines described in this presentation will be based, in part, upon the market price of the minerals, metals or petroleum produced, which may vary significantly from current levels. These variations, if materially adverse, may affect the timing or the feasibility of the development of a particular project, the expansion of certain facilities or mines, or the continuation of existing operations.
Other factors that may affect the actual construction or production commencement dates, costs or production output and anticipated lives of operations, mines or facilities include our ability to profitably produce and transport the minerals, petroleum and/or metals extracted to applicable markets; the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on the market prices of the minerals, petroleum or metals we produce; activities of government authorities in some of the countries where we are exploring or developing these projects, facilities or mines, including increases in taxes, changes in environmental and other regulations and political uncertainty; labour unrest; and other factors identified in the risk factors discussed in BHP's filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the 'SEC') (including in Annual Reports on Form 20-F) which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.
Except as required by applicable regulations or by law, the Group does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
Non-IFRS and other financial information
BHP results are reported under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). This presentation may also include certain non-IFRS (also referred to as alternate performance measures) and other measures including Underlying attributable profit, Underlying EBITDA (all references to EBITDA refer to Underlying EBITDA), Underlying EBIT, Adjusted effective tax rate, Controllable cash costs, Free cash flow, Gearing ratio, Net debt, Net operating assets, Operating assets free cash flow, Principal factors that affect Underlying EBITDA, Underlying basic earnings/(loss) per share, Underlying EBITDA margin and Underlying return on capital employed (ROCE) (all references to return on capital employed refer to Underlying return on capital employed), Underlying return on invested capital (ROIC). These measures are used internally by management to assess the performance of our business and segments, make decisions on the allocation of our resources and assess operational management. Non-IFRS and other measures have not been subject to audit or review and should not be considered as an indication of or alternative to an IFRS measure of profitability, financial performance or liquidity.
Presentation of data
Unless specified otherwise: value represents BHP share of risked discounted cash flows at consensus prices; copper equivalent production based on 2018 financial year average realised prices (as published in BHP's Results for the year ended 30 June 2018 on 21 August 2018); data from subsidiaries are shown on a 100 per cent basis and data from equity accounted investments and other operations are presented reflecting BHP's share; medium term refers to our five year plan. Queensland Coal comprises the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) asset, jointly operated with Mitsubishi, and the BHP Billiton Mitsui Coal (BMC) asset, operated by BHP. Numbers presented may not add up precisely to the totals provided due to rounding. References to disciplined supply refer to lower levels of investment across the industry. All footnote content contained on slide 24.
No offer of securities
Nothing in this presentation should be construed as either an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell BHP securities in any jurisdiction, or be treated or relied upon as a recommendation or advice by BHP.
Reliance on third party information
The views expressed in this presentation contain information that has been derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by BHP.
BHP and its subsidiaries
In this presentation, the terms 'BHP', 'Group', 'BHP Group', 'we', 'us', 'our' and 'ourselves' are used to refer to BHP Group Limited, BHP Group Plc and, except where the context otherwise requires, their respective subsidiaries set out in note 13 'Related undertaking of the Group' in section 5.2 of BHP's Annual Report on Form 20-F. Notwithstanding that this presentation may include production, financial and other information from non-operated assets, non-operated assets are not included in the BHP Group and, as a result, statements regarding our operations, assets and values apply only to our operated assets unless otherwise stated.
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BHP's investment proposition
We have the assets, options, capabilities and discipline to sustainably grow long-term shareholder value and returns
Maximise cash flow | Capital discipline | Value and returns | ||
Low-cost producer | US$10-15 bn net debt | ROCE to ~20% |
efficiency, technology, culture | range to be maintained | by FY22 (at FY17 prices)1 |
Volume growth | Optimised portfolio | |
productivity, project delivery | per annum to FY20 | post Onshore US divestment |
Constructive outlook | Organic opportunities | Shareholder returns |
for our commodities, | rich option set across commodities | >US$25 bn returned |
solid demand, disciplined supply | and time periods | since 1 January 2016 |
Note: Disciplined supply: reflects lower levels of investment across the industry. Net debt range and ROCE: do not consider impact of IFRS 16 Leases which is still being assessed. Shareholder returns: includes dividends determined since 1 January 2016 and Onshore US proceeds.
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Our strategic framework | Maximise the value of our existing portfolio | Secure our future success |
Our strategy to maximise value and returns
We aspire to have industry-leading capabilities applied to a portfolio of world-class assets in the most attractive commodities
Culture and capabilities that enable the execution of our business strategy
Commodities with high economic rent potential that match our capabilities
Best
culture and capabilities
Value and
returns
Best
commodities
Best | Assetsthat are resilient through |
assets | the cycle, have embedded growth |
options and match our capabilities |
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Our strategic framework | Maximise the value of our existing portfolio | Secure our future success |
Social value secures our strategy
Drives transformation and the shift from social 'licence' to 'value'
Social licence
Manage risk
•Approach is grounded in risk management
•Protect our licence to operate by meeting commitments to our workforce, partners, communities and governments
-Health and safety
-Scope 1 and 2 emissions reductions
-Water permits
-Native title agreements
-Social investment of 1% ofpre-tax profits per annum2
Social value
Create opportunity
•Buildlong-term societal value through deep and authentic relationships with local, regional and global stakeholders
•Collaborate and advocate to effectively address challenges, and pursue opportunities, of importance to our communities
•Place a high value on thelong-term needs of society and the environment
-Carbon Capture Storage
-Water stewardship
-Indigenous peoples advocacy
Secures access to capital, resources, markets and talent | |
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Our strategic frameworkMaximise the value of our existing portfolioSecure our future success
Balance sheet strength and capital allocation are critical
Our Capital Allocation Framework is transparent and embeds discipline
OperatingCapital
productivityproductivity
Net operating cash flow
Maintenance capital
Strong balance sheet
Minimum 50% payout ratio dividend
Excess cash flow
Debt | Additional | Buy-backs | Organic | Acquisitions/ |
reduction | dividends | development | divestments | |
Maximise value and returns
>US$25 billioncash returns to shareholders announced since 1 January 2016
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Our strategic frameworkMaximise the value of our existing portfolioSecure our future success
We navigate future uncertainty through scenario analysis
Maximise the value of our existing assets and optimise our portfolio to meet the evolving needs of markets
Drivers of
competitive
advantage
Culture and capabilities
Commodities
Assets
Present portfolio
Value-
Competitive conversion,
advantage de-risking
assessmentandexercising
options
Competitive portfolio of options and assets
Future
portfolio
New
commodity
entries
Asset
acquisitions/ Hypothesis
disposalstesting
Development
of core
strategic
capabilities
Examples of
strategic themes
Electrification of transport
Circular economy
Decarbonisation of stationary power
Biosphere: water stewardship and food (in)security
Licence to operate
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Our strategic framework | Maximise the value of our existing portfolio | Secure our future success |
Our plans have delivered
Our actions deliver a ~50% uplift in ROCE1from FY16 to FY19e
Transformation
Cost
efficiencies
Latent capacity
Technology
Future
options
Exploration
Onshore US
~5% unit cost reduction3across our portfolio
4 projects completed and 3 projects underway4, with average returns5of >60%
Remote Operations Centre replication ongoing with Santiago CIO online early-FY20; innovation mine at Eastern Ridge established to prove technologies
4 projects completed and 3 projects underway6, in favoured commodities (copper and oil)
10 of 13 successful petroleum exploration and appraisal wells7; Oak Dam discovery; Trion interest,
SolGold stake and Orphan Basin licences acquired
Clean, timely exit completed for US$10.8 billion, with net proceeds returned to shareholders
Returns
(ROCE1excluding Onshore US, nominal %) 20
15
10
5
0
FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19e | ||
FY17 average realised prices | Actual/forecast | ||||
Note: CIO - Copper Integrated Operations. | |
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Our strategic framework | Maximise the value of our existing portfolio | Secure our future success |
Maximise the value of our present portfolio
Petroleum | Escondida | |
•Brownfield and major projects support average annual production of ~110 MMboe in medium term (decline of ~1.5% p.a.)
•Advanced seismic imaging and ocean bottom node surveys to expand existing fields and unlock potential future opportunities
-West Barracouta: FY21 first gas, with FY23 peak
-Atlantis Phase 3: FY21 first oil, with FY24 peak
-Mad Dog Phase 2: FY22 first oil, with FY23 peak
•Remote Operations Centre to unlock bottlenecks and support throughput target of ~375 ktpd
•Pilot rollout of autonomous trucks and drills to deliver further load and haul efficiencies
•Three concentrator strategy to underpin production of ~1.2 Mtpa in medium term; unit costs flat despite higher power and water costs
Volume | Cost | Volume | Cost | ||||||||
(Petroleum production, MMboe) | (Petroleum unit costs, US$/boe) | (Escondida production, Mt) | (Escondida unit costs, US$/lb) | ||||||||
140 | Higher volumes | 15 | Field decline in | 1.30 | 1.50 | Higher power | |||||
~1.20 | |||||||||||
longer term | the medium term <13 | ||||||||||
Lower grades | and water costs | ||||||||||
assuming risked | 1.21 | average | |||||||||
<11 | 1.12-1.18 | <1.15 | <1.15 | ||||||||
113- | exploration success | 1.07 | |||||||||
120 | 10 | ||||||||||
118 | |||||||||||
120 | 10 | 1.15 | 1.00 | ||||||||
~110 | |||||||||||
average | |||||||||||
100 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.50 | ||||||||
FY18 | FY19e | Medium | FY18 | FY19e | Medium | FY18 | FY19e | Medium | FY18 | FY19e | Medium |
term | term 8 | term | term8 |
Note: Petroleum volume and cost guidance includes projects which are yet to be sanctioned, including Ruby where we expect an investment decision in CY19. Total boe conversions are based on 6 bcf of natural gas equals 1 MMboe. Escondida unit costs expected to be impacted by lower by-product credits (compared to FY19) in the short term.
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Our strategic framework | Maximise the value of our existing portfolio | Secure our future success |
Maximise the value of our present portfolio
Western Australia Iron Ore
•Phasedroll-out of autonomous haul trucks to replicate improvement in haulage costs seen at Jimblebar
•Utilising moving block technology reduces distance between trains, increasing rail capacity
•South Flank mine increases average product quality from CY21
-higher price realisations offset higher costs (relative to Yandi)
Volume | Cost |
(WAIO production, Mt) | (WAIO unit costs, US$/t) |
300 | 18 | ||||
290 | Derailment and | ||||
weather impacts | |||||
14 | <15 | Improved productivity | |||
and higher volumes | |||||
280 | 14 | ||||
275 | 265-270 | <13 | |||
260 | 10 | ||||
FY18 | FY19e | Medium | FY18 | FY19e | Medium |
term | term8 |
Queensland Coal
•Improved equipment productivity through increased availability and utilisation; reduced turnover and improved labour performance through BHP Operations Services
•Reversion down tolong-term strip ratio9of ~11:1 bcm (24:1 tonnes)
•Blending optimisation across sites to improve yield
•Significant growth optionality at Blackwater
Volume | Cost | ||||||||||||||||||||||
(Queensland Coal production, Mt) | (Queensland Coal unit costs, US$/t) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | 85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
49-54 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Higher strip ratio | |||||||||||||||||||||||
68-72 | Improved productivity | ||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | 70 | 68 | and higher volumes | ||||||||||||||||||||
43-46 | 57-64 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
FY18 | FY19e Medium | FY18 | FY19e | Medium | |||||||||||||||||||
term | term8 |
Note: Phased roll-out of autonomous haul trucks remains subject to Board approval. | |
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Our strategic framework | Maximise the value of our existing portfolio | Secure our future success |
Transforming BHP
The world is undergoing significant change… we will be bolder and adapt faster to take advantage of this
Transformation
Current programs
Outcomes
Ways of work
Culture and capabilities
Strategic and innovative
partnerships
World Class Functions
•Reduce bureaucracy, fewer silos
•30% reduction in overhead costs10
BHP Operating System
•Front-line-ledcontinuous improvement
•Deployed across seven locations byend-FY19
Value Chain Automation
•Automating equipment
•Decision automation
•Automation of processes
Centres of Excellence
•Centrally defined global best practice
•Equipment consistently to exceed benchmark
Enhancing our access to capability
•Flexible partnerships to access talent
•Technical and engineering excellence
Innovative solutions for operations
•Address sustainability challenges (e.g. carbon capture, water, tailings)
Operational stability
Quantum shift in safety, performance and value
Continued increase in productivity
Flexibility to rapidly capture opportunities
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Shared social and environmental value
•Strategic partnerships for mutual benefit
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Our strategic frameworkMaximise the value of our existing portfolioSecure our future success
Options provide ability to meet evolving market needs
Diversified across commodities, geographies and time periods
Jansen Stage 1e
Jansen Stage 2-4b
Canadaa | ||
Orphan Basin explorationa | ||
Resolutionc | ||
Mad Dog northwest water injectionc | ||
Wildlinga | Rubye | |
Samuraia | Triona | Northern T&Ta |
Western GOMa | Southern T&Ta | |
Atlantis Phase 4b | Trinidad Oila |
Petroleum
Copper
Iron ore
Coal
Potash
Nickel
Ecuadora
Spence materials reprocessingc
Spence in-pit crusher & conveyorb
Escondida materials reprocessingb
Escondida debottleneckingf
Scarboroughd
WAIO to 290 Mtpaf
Nickel West expansioncNickel West explorationa
Blackwaterf
Wards Wellc
South Walker Creekc
OD BFXd
OD ODEPb
Oak Dama
Note: Only selection of opportunities shown on map. BFX - Brownfield Expansion; GOM - Gulf of Mexico; ODEP - Olympic Dam Expansion Project; T&T - Trinidad and Tobago. a. Exploration; b. Pre-concept study phase; c. Concept study phase; d. Pre-feasibility study phase; e. Feasibility study phase; f. Latent capacity.
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Our strategic framework | Maximise the value of our existing portfolio | Secure our future success |
Broad suite of attractive opportunities
Comprehensive approach to evaluate and rank opportunities based on returns, risk and optionality
Optionality
In execution
Higher | Orphan Basin | Ecuador and South | South Flank | Atlantis Phase 3 | |
exploration | Australia exploration | ||||
(Iron ore) | (Petroleum) | ||||
return | (Petroleum) | (Copper) | |||
Trion appraisal | Nickel West | Spence Materials | Mad Dog Phase 2 | ||
Reprocessing | |||||
expansion | |||||
(Petroleum) | (Copper) | (Petroleum) | |||
(Nickel) | |||||
Resolution | Wards Well | Spence Growth Option | Scarborough | ||
(Copper) | (Metallurgical coal) | (Copper) | (Petroleum) | ||
South Walker Creek | Olympic Dam | Jansen Stage 1 | Autonomous Haulage | ||
Lower | Expansion Project | Australia | |||
(Metallurgical coal) | (Potash) | ||||
(Copper) | (Minerals Australia) | ||||
return | |||||
Higher risk | Lower risk | ||||
Note: Olympic Dam Expansion Project refers to heap leach technology development option. | |||||
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Our strategic frameworkMaximise the value of our existing portfolioSecure our future success
Value and returns are at the centre of everything we do
Our plans deliver ROCE1of ~20% in FY22 (at FY17 prices) and further improvement in value
• | >10% unit cost reductions11at bulk operations | ||
• | Escondida unit costs flat in medium term, | ||
Transformation | despite higher power and water costs | ||
• | Petroleum unit costs reflect field decline | ||
• | ~2% p.a. volume growth12over medium term | ||
• | ~17% returns from our longer-term | ||
Future | opportunities13 | ||
options | • | Unrisked value of ~US$14 bn spanning | |
commodities and time periods13 | |||
Returns
(ROCE1excluding Onshore US, nominal %) 20
15
10
5
0
FY16 | FY17 | FY18 | FY19e | FY22e | FY22e |
(consensus | (FY17 | ||||
prices) | prices) |
Value
(% contribution to risked value uplift14) 100
•Petroleum wells continuallyde-risked with meaningful production expected mid-2020s
75
50
Latent capacity
Exploration•Actively growing our copper exploration prospects
•Unrisked value of up to US$15 bn15
Note: Volume growth includes production from future options which remain subject to Board approval.
Value Chain Automation
25 | BHP Operating System |
0World Class Functions
Transformation | Future options | Exploration |
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BHP's investment proposition
We have the assets, options, capabilities and discipline to sustainably grow long-term shareholder value and returns
Maximise cash flow | Capital discipline | Value and returns | ||
Low-cost producer | US$10-15 bn net debt | ROCE to ~20% |
efficiency, technology, culture | range to be maintained | by FY22 (at FY17 prices)1 |
Volume growth | Optimised portfolio | |
productivity, project delivery | per annum to FY20 | post Onshore US divestment |
Constructive outlook | Organic opportunities | Shareholder returns |
for our commodities, | rich option set across commodities | >US$25 bn returned |
solid demand, disciplined supply | and time periods | since 1 January 2016 |
Note: Disciplined supply: reflects lower levels of investment across the industry. Net debt range and ROCE: do not consider impact of IFRS 16 Leases which is still being assessed. Shareholder returns: includes dividends determined since 1 January 2016 and Onshore US proceeds.
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Appendix
Transformation - delivers significant value
Increase in productivity, reduction in costs and application of technology
Initiatives | Value13 | Timing16 | Capex over | Description | |||
5-years | |||||||
(US$m) | |||||||
- | BHP Operating System: piloted at Port Hedland and Perth Repair Centre | ||||||
WAIO | ~5 years | <800 | - | Value Chain Automation: focused on haulage, shiploaders, rail, integrated mine platforms and decision systems | |||
- Latent capacity: supply chain debottlenecking initiatives at the port and rail to increase production sustainably to 290 Mtpa | |||||||
- | BHP Operating System: piloted at Peak Downs and Caval Ridge | ||||||
Queensland Coal | ~5 years | ~1,000 | - | Value Chain Automation: focused on haulage, integrated mine platforms and decision systems | |||
- Latent capacity: focused on pre-strip productivity through equipment availability (including better maintenance strategies), utilisation and rate | |||||||
- | BHP Operating System: piloted at Olympic Dam surface operations | ||||||
Olympic Dam | ~10 years | <300 | - | Value Chain Automation: replicate Integrated Remote Operations Centre | |||
- Latent capacity: continued development into the Southern Mine Area to access higher grade ore and refinery debottlenecking | |||||||
- BHP Operating System: piloted at Escondida concentrators | |||||||
Escondida | Various | <200 | - | Value Chain Automation: focused on haulage and precision mining | |||
- Latent capacity: debottlenecking and extending infrastructure life | |||||||
- BHP Operating System: piloted at leaching operations | |||||||
Spence | Various | <200 | - | Value Chain Automation: focused on haulage, drills and precision mining | |||
- Latent capacity: reprocessing of ripios dumped since the beginning of operations | |||||||
World Class Functions | <5 years | ~300 | - Increased focus on the most important activities and cross-functional ways of working to drive world-class performance across culture, | ||||
effectiveness and efficiency | |||||||
Aggregate | ~US$3 bn | Potential aggregate NPV13in the tens of billions of dollars | |||||
BHP Operating System | |||||||
Value Chain Automation | |||||||
Latent Capacity | |||||||
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Future options - worked for value, timed for returns
Investment decisions made in accordance with our Capital Allocation Framework and fully consider the broader market impact
Options | Description | Potential | Capex | Tollgate | IRR13 | Risk17 | Investment considerations | |||
execution | (US$m) | (1-5) | ||||||||
timing | ||||||||||
Ruby | Tie back into existing processing facilities in | <1 year | >250 | Feasibility | >15 | ●● | - | Similar scope to existing tie backs | - | Early life sensitivity to oil price |
Petroleum | Trinidad & Tobago | - | Utilisation of existing facility capacity | |||||||
Mad Dog northwest | Incremental production of existing A-Spar | Non | - | Resilient to price | - | Non-operated JV | ||||
- | Low risk, robust economics | |||||||||
water injection | <5 years | >250 | Pre-feasibility | * | ||||||
production wells in Mad Dog field | Operated | |||||||||
Petroleum | ||||||||||
- | Tier 1 resource | - | Oversupply of LNG driving low price market | |||||||
Scarborough | Tie back development to existing LNG | <5 years | <2,000 | Pre-feasibility | * | Non | - | Ability to process through existing | environment | |
Petroleum | facility | Operated | infrastructure | - | Remote field location, deep water, severe | |||||
metocean conditions | ||||||||||
Olympic Dam BFX18 | Development into the Southern Mine Area, | - | Access to additional resource in Southern | - | Continued resource definition | |||||
debottlenecking of existing surface | <5 years | Up to | Pre-feasibility | 12-25 | ●● | Mine Area | - | Power network instability | ||
Copper | infrastructure to increase production capacity | ~2,500 | - | Accelerated additional production | ||||||
to 240-300 ktpa | ||||||||||
Underground block cave with attractive | - | High copper grades | - | Non-operated JV | ||||||
Resolution | Non | - | Resilient to price | - | Technical risk due to caving at the resource depth | |||||
grade profile and competitive cost curve | >5 years | <3,000 | Concept | ~15 | ||||||
Copper | Operated | and tailings options | ||||||||
position | ||||||||||
- | Permitting requirements | |||||||||
Jansen Stage 119 | Tier 1 resource with potential initial capacity | - | Tier 1 resource, stable jurisdiction | - | Risk of market oversupply | |||||
<5 years | 5,300- | Feasibility | 14-15 | ●●● | - | Operating costs of ~US$100/t (FOB | - | New commodity entry | ||
Potash | of 4.3-4.5 Mtpa, with valuable expansion | 5,700 | Vancouver, excluding royalties) | - | Sensitive to price | |||||
optionality | ||||||||||
- | Unrivalled position of land | - | High capital cost and long payback | |||||||
Jansen Stage 2-419 | - | Long term growth optionality and value | - | Risk of market oversupply | ||||||
Sequenced brownfield expansions of up to | >15 years | ~4,000 | Opportunity | ~20 | ●● | generation | - | Complexities from project size | ||
Potash | 12 Mtpa (4 Mtpa per stage) | per stage | assessment | - | Adds diversification to BHP's portfolio | - | Significant capital requirement | |||
- Further de-risking required | ||||||||||
Aggregate | ~17 | Aggregate unrisked value13of ~US$14 billion spanning commodities and time periods | ||||||||
Note: * Mad Dog northwest water injection and Scarborough IRRs under review with joint venture partners. | ||||||||||
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Exploration - extending our conventional reserve life
Investment decisions made in accordance with our Capital Allocation Framework and fully consider the broader market impact
Options | Location | Ownership | Maturity | Earliest first | Description | Planned future activity |
production | ||||||
Trion | Mexico - Gulf of | 60% | Appraisal | Mid 2020s | Large oil discovery in the Mexican deepwater Gulf of Mexico. | Additional appraisal well approved; expected to spud in |
Petroleum | Mexico | Operator | December 2019 half | |||
Wildling | US - Gulf of Mexico | 80+% | Appraisal | Mid 2020s | Large oil resource across multiple horizons near operated | Complete appraisal to optimise development plan |
Petroleum | Operator | infrastructure in US Gulf of Mexico | ||||
Samurai | US - Gulf of Mexico | 50% | Appraisal | Early 2020s | Oil discovery in the Wildling mini basin | Operator has commenced pre-FEED activities following |
Petroleum | Samurai-2 discovery in 2018 | |||||
Northern Gas | Trinidad and | 70% | Potential material gas play in Deepwater Trinidad, well positioned | Currently drilling to test exploration prospects following the | ||
Exploration | Mid 2020s | recent Bongos-2 success and Bele-1 encountered | ||||
Petroleum | Tobago | Operator | to the Atlantic LNG plant onshore T&T | |||
hydrocarbons | ||||||
Magellan Southern | Trinidad and | 65% | Exploration | Mid 2020s | Potential material gas play in Deepwater Trinidad, well positioned | Rig completed 2 well exploration program in October 2018; |
Gas | Tobago | Operator | to the Atlantic LNG plant onshore T&T | incorporating results | ||
Petroleum | ||||||
Western GOM | 100% | Completed acquisition of Ocean Bottom Node seismic | ||||
US - Gulf of Mexico | Frontier | Early 2030s | Acquired a significant acreage position in Western Gulf of Mexico | 20 | ||
Petroleum | Operator | survey ; process & analyse seismic and incorporate into | ||||
ongoing analysis | ||||||
Trinidad Oil | Trinidad and | 65-70% | Frontier | Late 2020s | Potential oil play in deepwater Trinidad | Geologic analysis ongoing |
Petroleum | Tobago | Operator | ||||
Orphan Basin | Canada | 100% | Frontier | Early 2030s | Recent bid success for blocks with large oil resource potential in | Geologic analysis ongoing |
Petroleum | Operator | the offshore Orphan Basin in Eastern Canada | ||||
Multi-billion barrel equivalent risked potential; unrisked NPV of up to US$15 billion15 | ||||||
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BHP guidance
Group | FY19e | ||||||
Capital and exploration expenditure (US$bn) | <8.0 | Cash basis. FY20e: | |||||
Including: | |||||||
Maintenance | 2.1 | Includes non-discretionary capital expenditure to maintain asset integrity, reduce risks and meet compliance requirements. Also includes | |||||
capitalised deferred stripping (FY19e: US$1.0 billion). | |||||||
Improvement | 2.2 | Includes North West Shelf Greater Western Flank-B, Conventional Petroleum infill drilling, South Flank and transformation initiatives. | |||||
Latent capacity | 0.6 | Includes EWSE, Caval Ridge Southern Circuit, Olympic Dam SMA, WAIO to 290 Mtpa and West Barracouta. | |||||
Major growth | 1.8 | Includes Spence Growth Option, Mad Dog Phase 2, Jansen and Atlantis Phase 3. | |||||
Exploration | 0.9 | Includes US$750 million Petroleum and ~US$70 million Copper exploration programs. | |||||
Onshore US | 0.4 | Includes expenditure to the end of October 2018 to operate five rigs in Onshore US. | |||||
Conventional Petroleum | FY19e | Medium term | |||||
Petroleum production (MMboe) | 113 - 118 | ~110 | FY19 volumes expected to be top end of the range. Decline of ~1.5% p.a. over medium term includes projects yet to be sanctioned. | ||||
Capital expenditure (US$m) | 730 | Sanctioned | Capex | First production | Production | ||
(BHP share) | (100% basis at peak) | ||||||
Mad Dog Phase 2 | February 2017 | US$2.2 bn | FY22 | 140,000 boe/d | |||
West Barracouta | December 2018 | ~US$120 m | FY21 | 104 MMscf/d | |||
Atlantis Phase 3 | February 2019 | ~US$700 m | FY21 | 38,000 boe/d | |||
Ruby | Decision in CY19 | ~US$330 m | FY22 | 16,000 bopd (oil) and | |||
80 MMscf/d (gas) | |||||||
Exploration expenditure (US$m) | 750 | Focused on Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. | |||||
Unit cost (US$/boe) | <11 | <13 | Excludes inventory movements, embedded derivatives movements, freight, third party product purchases and exploration expense. | ||||
Based on exchange rates of AUD/USD 0.75. |
Note: All guidance is in nominal terms. | |
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BHP guidance (continued)
Copper | FY19e | Medium term | |||||
Copper production (kt) | 1,645 - 1,740 | Escondida: 1.12 - 1.18 Mt; Olympic Dam: 170 - 180 kt; Spence: 160 - 175 kt; Cerro Colorado: 60 - 70 kt; Antamina: 135 kt (zinc 35kt). | |||||
Capital and exploration expenditure (US$bn) | 2.9 | Includes US$70 million exploration expenditure. | |||||
Sanctioned | Capex | First production | Production | ||||
(BHP share) | (100% basis) | ||||||
EWSE | March 2018 | US$308 m | FY20 | 1,300 l/s of water | |||
Spence Growth Option | August 2017 | US$2.46 bn | FY21 | ~185 ktpa of copper | |||
(over first 10 years) | |||||||
Escondida | |||||||
Copper production (Mt, 100% basis) | 1.12 - 1.18 | ~1.20 | FY19 volumes expected to be towards lower end of range. | ||||
Unit cash costs (US$/lb) | <1.15 | <1.15 | Excludes freight and treatment and refining charges; net of by-product credits; includes costs to settle labour negotiations; based on an | ||||
exchange rate of USD/CLP 663. Unit costs expected to be impacted by lower by-product credits (compared to FY19) in the short term. | |||||||
Medium term units costs flat despite higher water and power costs. | |||||||
Iron Ore | FY19e | Medium term | |||||
Iron ore production (Mt) | 235 - 239 | Excludes production from Samarco. | |||||
Capital and exploration expenditure (US$bn) | 1.8 | Sanctioned | Capex | First production | Production | ||
(BHP share) | (100% basis) | ||||||
South Flank | June 2018 | US$3.1 bn | CY21 | 80 Mtpa sustaining mine | |||
Western Australia Iron Ore | |||||||
Iron ore production (Mt, 100% basis) | 265 - 270 | 290 | |||||
Unit cash costs (US$/t) | <15 | <13 | Excludes freight and royalties; based on an exchange rate of AUD/USD 0.75. | ||||
Sustaining capital expenditure (US$/t) | 4 | Medium term average; +/- 50% in any given year. Includes South Flank; excludes costs associated with Value Chain Automation. |
Note: All guidance is in nominal terms. | |
Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference | |
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BHP guidance (continued)
Coal | FY19e | Medium term | |
Metallurgical coal production (Mt) | 43 - 46 | 49 - 54 | |
Energy coal production (Mt) | 28 - 29 | NSWEC: 18 - 19 Mt; Cerrejón: 10 Mt. | |
Capital and exploration expenditure (US$bn) | 0.6 | ||
Queensland Coal | |||
Production (Mt, 100% basis) | 75 - 81 | FY19 volumes expected to be towards lower end of range. | |
Unit cash costs (US$/t) | 68 - 72 | 57 - 64 | Excludes freight and royalties; based on an exchange rate of AUD/USD 0.75. |
Sustaining capital expenditure (US$/t) | 8 | Medium term average; +/- 50% in any given year. | |
Other | FY19e | ||
Other capex (US$bn) | 1.2 | Includes Nickel West and Jansen. FY19 also includes US$0.4 billion for Onshore US. | |
Including: Jansen current scope (US$bn) | ~0.2 | US$2.7 billion; completion in early 2021. |
Note: All guidance is in nominal terms. | |
Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference | |
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Footnotes
1.Slides 3,8,14,15: ROCE: Represents annualised attributable profit after tax excluding exceptional items and net finance costs (after tax) divided by average capital employed. Capital employed is net assets before net debt. Presentation of future Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) does not constitute guidance and represents outcomes based on differing price and other scenarios; does not consider impact of IFRS 16 Leases which is still being assessed.
2.Slide 5: Social investment: Our voluntary social investment is calculated as 1% of the average of the previous three years'pre-tax profit.
3.Slide 8: Unit cost: Represents weighted average change in unit costs for Conventional Petroleum, Escondida, Western Australia Iron Ore and Queensland Coal between FY16 and FY19e.
4.Slide 8: Latent capacity projects completed: Spence Recovery Optimisation (Copper), Los Colorado Extension (Copper), Caval Ridge Southern Circuit (Coal) and Southern Mine Area (Copper). Latent capacity projects underway: WAIO 290 Mtpa (Iron Ore), Escondida Water Supply Extension (Copper) and West Barracouta (Petroleum).
5.Slide 8: Average returns: Returns as presented in prior Bank of America Merrill Lynch Conference presentations.
6.Slide 8: Future options completed: Greater Western Flank A (Petroleum), Longford Gas Conditioning Plant (Petroleum), Escondida Water Supply (Copper) and Greater Western Flank B (Petroleum). Future options underway: Mad Dog Phase 2 (Petroleum), Spence Growth Option (Copper) and Atlantis Phase 3 (Petroleum).
7.Slide 8: A successful well is an exploratory or extension well that is not a dry well or met its exploration or appraisal objective. Successful wells include wells in which hydrocarbons were encountered and the drilling or completion of which has
been suspended pending further drilling. Excludes wells that had mechanical issues (Burrokeet-1 and Wildling-1 in FY17 and Bongos-1 in FY19) where the opportunities were tested by a subsequent well. Successful wells: Shenzi North-2,
Ruby-3,LeClerc-1,Caicos-1,Wildling-2,Samurai-2,Victoria-1,Bongos-2,Trion-2DEL and Bélé-1. Unsuccessful wells: Burrokeet-2, Scimitar and Concepcion-1.
8.Slides 9,10:Medium-term unit cost guidance: Based on an exchange rate of AUD/USD 0.75 and USD/CLP 663. Unit costs are in nominal terms.
9.Slide 10: Strip ratio: Represents prime excluding rehandle (bcm) to product (tonnes).
10.Slide 11: Reduction in overhead costs: Represents potential reduction from FY18 in scope Global Function costs.
11.Slide 14: Represents unit cost reduction from FY19e to medium term.
12.Slide 14: Volume growth: Copper equivalent production based on FY18 average realised prices.
13.Slides 14,18,19: Returns (IRR) and value (NPV): Calculated at 2019 analyst consensus price forecasts (except Potash which are at CRU and Integer (Argus Media) price forecasts); ungeared,post-tax, nominal rates.
14.Slide 14: Risked value uplift: Represents total potential increase in base value from the addition of upside opportunities.
15.Slides 14,20: Petroleum exploration and appraisal NPV: Unrisked values at BHPlong-term price forecasts.
16.Slide 18: Timing: Representsramp-up to steady state.
17.Slide 19: Risk: Based on a BHP assessment of each project against defined quantified andnon-quantified risk metrics rated out of 5; 5 represents more risk.
18.Slide 19: Olympic Dam: IRR of12-25% represents different development options of varying levels of certainty. The upper end of range relates to investment in a potential lower capital and production development towards BFX.
19.Slide 19: Jansen: Based on CRU and Integer (Argus Media) price assumptions(2025-2035 average mid-case: CRU US$325/t and Integer (Argus Media) US$342/t, rebased). Jansen Stage 1 IRR of 14-15% reflects capex range and excludes remaining funded investment of ~US$0.3 billion for completion of the shafts and installation of essential service infrastructure and utilities. Jansen Stages 2-4 capex is presented in real terms (July 2019) - those options would be brownfield and predominately require surface infrastructure, with shorter construction schedules and less risk than Stage 1. The execution of future stages would be subject to our review of supply and demand fundamentals and successful competition for capital under our Capital Allocation Framework. However, we expect that each subsequent expansion would be approved for development after the previous expansion had reached 3 to 4 years of full production. The existing shafts are capable of supporting production for Stages 2-4.
20.Slide 20: WGOM OBN 2018 Seismic Permit is OCS PermitT18-010.
Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference | |
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BHP Billiton plc published this content on 14 May 2019 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 14 May 2019 09:52:07 UTC