Presentation on Results for the 3rd Quarter FY2019

Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd.

February 14, 2020

Table of Contents

  1. FY 2019 3rd Quarter Topics
  2. FY 2019 3rd Quarter Results
  1. Overview
  2. Segment Information
  1. Shareholder Returns
  2. Reference Materials

2

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

FY 2019 3rd Quarter Topics

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

FY 2019 3rd Quarter Topics

1.Nghi Son Refinery in Vietnam

1Maintenance in December

Overview: Inspection and maintenance aimed at correcting initial defects in refinery facilities.

Conducted upon the shut down of all equipment.

Period: Commenced in late October and completed in mid- December as planned

(2)Current utilization

The refinery has maintained full utilization ever since

2.ESG efforts

1Announced the support for TCFD

2Issued an Integrated Report

4

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

FY 2019 3rd Quarter Results

FY 2018(E): Estimate of the total of Idemitsu Kosan and Showa Shell Sekiyu on a 100% consolidated basis

Segment information: Total of operating income and equity earnings of affiliates (Equity Income)

Crude Oil Price Trends

90 (USD/Bbl.)

FY 2018 Actual

FY 2019 Actual

FY 2018 3Q Average: US$71.3/Bbl.

11/14 Assumption

80

FY 2019 3Q Average: US$63.5/Bbl.

70

60

Assumption as of 11/14: US$63.1/Bbl.

50

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

6

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

JPY/USD Exchange Rate (TTM) Trends

(JPY/USD)

115

FY 2018 Actual

FY 2018 3Q Average: 111.1 JPY/USD

FY 2019 Actual

11/14 Assumption

110

105

FY 2019 3Q Average: 108.7 JPY/USD

Assumption as of 11/14: 107.5 JPY/USD

100

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

7

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Overview

  • Operating income excluding inventory impact + equity income decreased by ¥88.6 billion year-on-year, to ¥96.7 billion, mainly due to decreased equity income from the petroleum segment, reduced product margins in the basic chemicals segment, and decreasing operating income in the resources segment
  • Ordinary income decreased by ¥115.3 billion year-on-year, to ¥91.4 billion. Gains were recorded from step acquisition in the integration with Showa Shell Sekiyu, and as a result, net income attributable to owners of the parent decreased by ¥52.3 billion year-on-year, to ¥64.9 billion

Forecasts announced on November 14 remain unchanged

8

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

(1) Overview

1) Crude Oil / Exchange Rates

(Units: $/Bbl., $/Ton, ¥/$)

FY 2018 3Q

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Crude Oil (Dubai)

71.3

63.5

(7.7)

(10.8%)

Crude Oil (Brent)

72.1

64.9

(7.2)

(10.0%)

Naphtha Price (Customs)

652

534

(118)

(18.1%)

Thermal Coal (NEWC)

108.0

81.3

(26.7)

(24.7%)

Exchange Rate (TTM)

111.1

108.7

(2.5)

(2.2%)

* Brent prices and thermal coal prices are averages based on the calendar year (January-September).

2) Consolidated Income Statement (Summary)

(Units: ¥ billions)

FY 2018 3Q (E)

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Net Sales

5,193.7

4,560.7

(633.0)

(12.2%)

Operating Income

205.1

87.5

(117.6)

(57.4%)

+ Equity Income

(Inventory impact)

19.8

(9.3)

(29.1)

(Excluding inventory impact)

185.3

96.7

(88.6)

(47.8%)

Ordinary Income

206.7

91.4

(115.3)

(55.8%)

Extraordinary Gain/Loss

(10.2)

11.4

21.6

Net Income Attributable to

117.2

64.9

(52.3)

(44.6%)

Owners of the Parent

(Excluding inventory impact)

103.5

71.3

(32.2)

(31.1%)

  • Gross average method of inventory valuation
  • "Inventory impact" represents the impact of inventory valuation and the reduction in book value of inventory assets

* Figures rounded to the nearest billion yen

9

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

(2) Segment Information

1) Operating Income + Equity Income

(Units: ¥ billions)

FY 2018 3Q(E)

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Petroleum

87.3

16.8

(70.5)

(80.8%)

(Excluding inventory impact)

67.5

26.1

(41.4)

(61.4%)

Basic Chemicals

39.4

18.0

(21.4)

(54.4%)

Functional Materials

25.2

20.2

(4.9)

(19.5%)

Power and

(8.5)

(0.5)

8.0

Renewable Energy

Resources

66.8

34.5

(32.4)

(48.4%)

(Oil Exploration and Production)

29.8

12.2

(17.7)

(59.2%)

(Coal)

37.0

22.3

(14.7)

(39.7%)

Others/Reconciliation

(5.1)

(1.5)

3.6

Total

205.1

87.5

(117.6)

(57.4%)

(Excluding inventory impact)

185.3

96.7

(88.6)

(47.8%)

* Fiscal years for Australian coal operations and Oil Exploration and Production included in the Resources Business end in December10

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

(2) Segment Information

2) Analysis of Factors Affecting Operating Income + Equity Income

(Units: ¥ billions)

(Excluding inventory impact, year-on-year)

185.3

FY2018

3Q(E)

(14.5)

Margins,

Volume, (26.9) Crude

premium

Synergies,

ES

Equity

(21.4)

Exploration

Income, etc.

11.2

(3.3)

Product

(4.9)

Power

(18.4)

Costs, FX,

etc.

Margins

Performance,

0.7

etc.

Chemicals,

Price, Sales

(12.9)

etc.

Volume

(1.8)

3.6

Price

Volume,etc.

96.7

Petroleum

Basic

Functional

Power and

Oil Exploration

Coal

Other

Chemicals

Materials

Renewable Energy

and Production

s

FY2019

(41.4)

(21.4) (4.9)

8.0

(17.7)

(14.7)

3.6

3Q

11

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Shareholder Returns

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Shareholder Returns

Shareholder Returns Policy FY2019-2021 Total payout ratio of 50% or higher

  • The minimum dividend is ¥160 per share and at least 10% of returns to shareholders will be allocated to share buyback
  • All repurchased shares will be canceled

Share buyback

  • Share buyback commenced on November 15, 2019, was completed on January 24, 2020
    (disclosed on company website and the TSE on January 27)
  1. Total shares acquired: 4,060,800 shares (all will be canceled)
    • % of total shares outstanding excluding treasury shares: 1.34%
  2. Aggregate value purchased: ¥11,999,847,800

13

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Reference Materials

Table of Contents

. Overview of the New

5.

Market Conditions

Integrated Company

6.

Refineries Utilization

2. Financial Reporting

7.

Number of Service

(1) Forecast for FY 2019

Stations

    1. FY 2019 3rd Quarter Results
  1. Sensitivity
  2. Sales and Production
    1. Sales/Production Volume
    2. Sales/Production Volume Forecast

15

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Overview of the New Integrated Company

Petroleum Segment

Refining capacity: 945,000 BD *1

Domestic fuel oil sales volume:

43 million KL/year

Number of service stations: 6,500

Basic Chemicals Segment

Production Capacity

Ethylene: 1 mil tons/year

Paraxylene: 1.28 mil tons/year *2

Styrene monomers: 0.75 mil tons/year

Power and Renewable Energy Segment

Power generation capacity: 1GW

(Renewable energy: 0.2GW)

Solar panel production capacity: 1GW/year

Functional Materials Segment

(Lubricants, performance chemicals, electronic

materials, functional asphalt, agricultural-

biotechnology, solid electrolyte)

Lubricants sales volume: 1.3 mil KL/year *3

Performance chemicals production capacity

Engineering plastics: 150,000 tons/year

Adhesive materials: 76,000 tons/year

OLED materials production capacity:

10 tons/year

Resources Segment

Crude oil production: 27,000 BD

Thermal coal production:

12 mil tons/year

*1

1,090,000 barrels/day when adding the refining capacity of Fuji Oil, Co.,Ltd

with which a petroleum products trade agreement has been signed

*2

Including mixed xylene production capacity

*3

Lubricants sales volume excludes sales by Shell Lubricants Japan K.K.

16

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

2. Financial Reporting

(1) Forecast for FY 2019

1) Crude Oil / Exchange Rates

(Units: $/Bbl., $/Ton, ¥/$)

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Assumptions

(Oct~ )

Crude Oil (Dubai)

70.0

63.1

(6.9)

(9.9%)

60.0

Crude Oil (Brent)

72.0

63.4

(8.6)

(11.9%)

61.5

Naphtha Price (Customs)

650

515

(135)

(20.8%)

485

Thermal Coal (NEWC)

93.0

75.5

(17.5)

(18.8%)

63.0

Exchange Rate (TTM)

110.0

107.5

(2.5)

(2.3%)

105.0

* Brent prices and thermal coal prices are averages based on the calendar year (January-December).

2) Consolidated Income Statement (Summary)

(Units: ¥ billions)

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Net Sales

6,790.0

6,100.0

(690.0)

(10.2%)

Operating Income

220.0

140.0

(80.0)

(36.4%)

+ Equity Income

(Inventory impact)

0.0

(28.0)

(28.0)

(Excluding inventory impact)

220.0

168.0

(52.0)

(23.6%)

Ordinary Income

228.5

150.0

(78.5)

(34.4%)

Extraordinary Gain/Loss

10.0

9.0

(1.0)

(10.0%)

Net Income Attributable to

160.0

100.0

(60.0)

(37.5%)

Owners of the Parent

(Excluding inventory impact)

160.0

120.0

(40.0)

(25.0%)

* Gross average method of inventory valuation

* "Inventory impact" represents the impact of inventory valuation and the reduction in book value of inventory assets

17

* Figures rounded to the nearest billion yen

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

2. Financial Reporting

3) Operating Income + Equity Income (vs. 5/15 Forecast)

(Units: ¥ billions)

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Petroleum

78.0

31.0

(47.0)

(60.3%)

(Excluding inventory impact)

78.0

59.0

(19.0)

(24.4%)

Basic Chemicals

45.5

45.0

(0.5)

(1.1%)

Functional Materials

39.0

31.0

(8.0)

(20.5%)

Power and

2.0

(4.0)

(6.0)

Renewable Energy

Resources

61.0

42.0

(19.0)

(31.1%)

(Oil Exploration and Production)

21.0

14.0

(7.0)

(33.3%)

(Coal)

40.0

28.0

(12.0)

(30.0%)

Others/Reconciliation

(5.5)

(5.0)

0.5

Total

220.0

140.0

(80.0)

(36.4%)

(Excluding inventory impact)

220.0

168.0

(52.0)

(23.6%)

* Fiscal years for Australian coal operations and Oil Exploration and Production included in the Resources Business end in December

18

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

2. Financial Reporting

  1. FY 2019 3rd Quarter Results

1) Net Sales by Segment

(Units: ¥ billions)

FY 2018 3Q(E)

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Petroleum

4,063.6

3,630.4

(433.2)

(10.7%)

Basic Chemicals

466.7

350.0

(116.7)

(25.0%)

Functional Materials

325.2

294.0

(31.3)

(9.6%)

Power and

105.8

94.6

(11.2)

(10.6%)

Renewable Energy

Resources

229.2

189.0

(40.2)

(17.6%)

(Oil Exploration and Production)

58.6

35.9

(22.7)

(38.8%)

(Coal)

170.7

153.1

(17.5)

(10.3%)

Others/Reconciliation

3.2

2.8

(0.4)

(13.3%)

Total

5,193.7

4,560.7

(633.0)

(12.2%)

19

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

2. Financial Reporting

  1. FY 2019 3rd Quarter Results

2) Extraordinary Gains/Losses

(Units: ¥ billions)

FY 2018 3Q(E)

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Gain on sale of fixed assets

3.3

2.3

(1.0)

Gain on sale of affiliate stock

0.2

0.0

(0.2)

Gain on business transfer

2.3

0.0

(2.3)

Gain from step acquisition

0.0

17.2

17.2

Other

7.9

3.1

(4.8)

Total Extraordinary Gains

13.7

22.6

9.0

Impairment losses

18.4

0.1

(18.3)

Loss on sale and depletion

3.0

5.6

2.6

of fixed assets

Other

2.4

5.6

3.1

Total Extraordinary Losses

23.9

11.3

(12.6)

Total Extraordinary Gains/Losses

(10.2)

11.4

21.6

20

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

2. Financial Reporting

  1. FY 2019 3rd Quarter Results
  1. Balance Sheet

(Units: ¥ billions)

4/1/2019

12/31/2019

Change

4/1/2019

12/31/2019

Change

141.7

125.2

(16.5)

Liabilities

1,781.2

1,841.5

60.3

Cash and deposits

Total Current

Receivables,

1,677.8

1,715.3

37.5

Total Fixed

1,060.4

988.5

(71.9)

Inventory, etc.

Liabilities

Total Current

1,819.5

1,840.6

21.1

Total Liabilities

2,841.6

2,830.0

(11.6)

Assets

Tangible fixed assets

1,410.4

1,439.8

29.4

Shareholders' Equity

1,255.6

1,245.5

(10.1)

and Other

920.5

845.8

(74.7)

Comprehensive Income

53.2

50.6

(2.6)

Other fixed assets

Noncontrolling Interests

Total Fixed Assets

2,330.9

2,285.5

(45.4)

Total Net Assets

1,308.8

1,296.1

(12.7)

Total Assets

4,150.4

4,126.1

(24.3)

Total Liabilities and

4,150.4

4,126.1

(24.3)

Net Assets

Net D/E Ratio

0.75

0.90

0.15

Total Interest-

1,077.2

1,240.0

162.8

bearing Debt

Equity Ratio

30.3%

30.2%

(0.1%)

21

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Sensitivity

(1) Impact of a US$1/bbl. Decrease in Crude Oil Prices on FY Earnings

Decrease in refinery

1.0billion

Petroleum

fuel costs, etc.

(5.0 billion)

Inventory impact

(4.0 billion)

Oil Exploration & Production

(1.0 billion)

(2) Impact of a 1 JPY/USD Depreciation on FY Earnings

Increase in refinery

(0.5 billion)

Petroleum

fuel costs, etc.

3.0 billion

Inventory impact

2.5 billion

Basic Chemicals

0.5 billion

Oil Exploration & Production

  • In addition to the above, the resources businesses are impacted by fluctuations in exchange rates with other currencies (NOK, AUD, etc.)

22

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Sales and Production

(1)1.Sales Volume (Petroleum Segment)

Units:Thousand KL,%

FY 2018 3Q E

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Gasoline

11,610

10,902

(708)

(6.1%)

Naphtha

274

207

(67)

(24.4%)

Jet Fuel

3,934

3,869

(65)

(1.6%)

Kerosene

2,369

2,293

(77)

(3.2%)

Diesel Oil

8,561

8,089

(472)

(5.5%)

Heavy Fuel Oil A

2,555

2,338

(217)

(8.5%)

Heavy Fuel Oil C

2,673

2,566

(108)

(4.0%)

Toal Domestic Sales Volume

31,977

30,264

(1,713)

(5.4%)

Exported Volume

3,022

2,666

(356)

(11.8%)

Total Sales Volume

34,999

32,930

(2,069)

(5.9%)

23

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Sales and Production

(1)2.Sales Volume (Basic Chemicals Segment)

(Units:Thousand tons, %)

FY 2018 3Q E

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Basic Chemicals

3,154

2,961

(193)

(6.1%)

(1)3.Sales Volume (Functional Materials Segment)

Units:Thousand KL,Thousand tons,%

FY 2018 3Q

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Lubricants

958

897

(61)

(6.4%)

Performance Chemicals

454

464

11

2.4%

*Includes sales of overseas licenses

*Lubricant oil sales volume excludes sales by Shell Lubricants Japan K.K.

(1)4.Sales Volume (Power and Renewable Energy Segment)

(Units:Million kWh, %)

FY 2018 3Q E

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Retail Power Sales

1,216

1,680

464

38.2%

24

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Sales and Production

1)-5.Oil E&P - Production Volume ,including Gas (Resources Segment)

Units:Thousand BOED

FY 2018 3Q

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Norway

27.2

20.9

(6.3)

(23.2%)

Total('000BOE)

7,416

5,692

(1,724)

(23.2%)

*Figures based on interest owned by Idemitsu's resource development subsidiaries

1 6. Coal - Production Volume (Resources Segment)

Units:Thousand tons

( )-

FY 2018 3Q

FY 2019 3Q

Change

Ensham

3,318

3,123

(195)

(5.9%)

Muswellbrook

1,163

826

(337)

(29.0%)

Boggabri

4,053

4,047

(6)

(0.1%)

Tarawonga

204

0

(204)

(100.0%)

Sub Total

8,738

7,996

(742)

(8.5%)

Mainau

764

939

176

23.0%

Total Production Volume

9,502

8,935

(566)

(6.0%)

*Figures based on interst owned by Idemitsu Group

*Fiscal years for Oil Exploration and Production and Coal operations end in December

25

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Sales and Production

(2)1.Sales Volume Forecasts (Petroleum Segment)

Units:Thousand KL,%

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Gasoline

14,880

14,350

(530)

(3.6%)

Naphtha

390

300

(90)

(23.0%)

Jet Fuel

5,310

5,230

(80)

(1.5%)

Kerosene

4,610

4,350

(260)

(5.6%)

Diesel Oil

11,060

10,700

(360)

(3.3%)

Heavy Fuel Oil A

3,790

3,460

(330)

(8.7%)

Heavy Fuel Oil C

3,300

3,570

270

8.2%

Toal Domestic Sales Volume

43,340

41,960

(1,380)

(3.2%)

Exported Volume

3,570

4,650

1,080

30.3%

Total Sales Volume

46,910

46,610

(300)

(0.6%)

26

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Sales and Production

(2)2.Sales Volume Forecasts (Basic Chemicals Segment)

(Units:Thousand tons, %)

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Basic Chemicals

4,270

4,210

(60)

(1.4%)

(2)3.Sales Volume Forecasts (Functional Materials Segment)

Units:Thousand KL,Thousand tons,%

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Lubricants

1,300

1,250

(50)

(3.8%)

Performance Chemicals

660

640

(20)

(3.0%)

*Includes sales of overseas licenses

*Lubricant oil sales volume excludes sales by Shell Lubricants Japan K.K.

(2)4.Sales Volume Forecasts (Power and Renewable Energy Segment)

(Units:Million kWh, %)

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Retail Power Sales

2,720

2,810

90

3.3%

27

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Sales and Production

2)-5.Oil E&P - Production Volume Forecasts ,including Gas (Resources Segment)

Units:Thousand BOED

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Norway

22.7

21.7

(1.0)

(4.5%)

Total('000BOE)

8,300

7,930

(370)

(4.5%)

*Figures based on interest owned by Idemitsu's resource development subsidiaries

2)-6. Coal - Production Volume Forecasts (Resources Segment)

Units:Thousand tons

5/15 Forecast

11/14 Forecast

Difference

Ensham

4,360

4,420

60

1.4%

Muswellbrook

1,500

1,330

(170)

(11.3%)

Boggabri

5,990

5,450

(540)

(9.0%)

Tarawonga

0

0

0

Sub Total

11,850

11,200

(650)

(5.5%)

Mainau

1,230

1,230

0

0.0%

Total Production Volume

13,080

12,430

(650)

(5.0%)

*Figures based on interst owned by Idemitsu Group

*Fiscal years for Oil Exploration and Production and Coal operations end in December

28

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Market Conditions

1Crude Oil Prices (Dubai and Brent)

29

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Market Conditions

2Gasoline - Crude Oil CIF (Prices and Spreads)

30

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Market Conditions

3Diesel Oil - Crude Oil CIF (Prices and Spreads)

31

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Market Conditions

4Paraxylene, Mixed xylene, Naptha (Prices and Spreads)

32

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

. Market Conditions

5Styrene Monomer, Naptha (Prices and Spreads)

33

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

6.Refineries Utilization

Capacity Utilization(%) BCD

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

FY2018

FY2019 3Q

Idemitsu

86%

88%

88%

88%

86%

Showa Shell

91%

85%

88%

93%

7.Number of Service Stations

Locations

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

FY2018

FY2019 3Q

Idemitsu

3,666

3,589

3,545

3,501

3,453

Showa Shell

3,193

3,123

3,028

2,964

2,917

Total

6,859

6,712

6,573

6,465

6,370

34

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Precaution statement about forecasts

Any information about forecasts for the Company's operating results,

management strategy and management policy contained in this documents other than historical facts is prepared, according to judgments made by the top management of the Company based on information available as of the

publication of the document.

Actual business environments contain potential risk factors and uncertainties including economic situations, crude oil prices, trends in petroleum products, market conditions, currency exchange rates and interest rates.

Consequently, actual operating results of the Company may substantially differ from forecasts due to changes in the important factors mentioned above.

35

Copyright©2020 Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Attachments

  • Original document
  • Permalink

Disclaimer

Idemitsu Kosan Co. Ltd. published this content on 14 February 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 14 February 2020 08:48:10 UTC