PARIS, April 9 (Reuters) - Argus has raised its forecast for Russian wheat production this year to 92.1 million metric tons, with an increased estimate for the winter wheat area outweighing less favourable prospects for spring wheat planting and yields.
In its initial outlook in November, commodity analysis firm Argus had projected a 2024/25 crop of 90 million tons.
The new forecast represents the second-largest volume on record after a peak in 2022/23 and puts Russia on course to have total wheat supply, including stocks, of above 100 million tons for a third straight season, Argus said.
Huge supply has reinforced Russia's position as the world's top wheat supplier and it is expected to achieve record shipments for a second season in 2023/24, despite war in Ukraine and state intervention in grain export policy.
Other analysts also expect Russian wheat output to remain above 90 million tons this year.
Growers planted more winter wheat for this year's harvest than previously anticipated, Argus said, citing official data and a survey of farmers.
That offset a slight reduction to its expectations for harvest yields, although these were broadly in line with last year's levels.
"Soil has generally retained moisture from a relatively wet three months over November-January. But a dry period in February-March means that rain is now urgently needed over the next two to three weeks," Argus said in a note.
Farmers may also plant less spring wheat than previously anticipated after falling profit margins for wheat in recent months made other spring crops more attractive, it added.
Argus' updated production forecast for the 2024/25 crop, released to clients last week, comprised 67.7 million tons of winter wheat and 24.4 million tons of spring wheat.
The company does not include Crimea and other annexed regions of Ukraine in its Russian crop forecasts. (Reporting by Gus Trompiz; Editing by Alexander Smith)
