NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Yield potential for Crop Watch corn and soybeans ticked up slightly this week after declining for multiple weeks due to a historic dry stretch across the U.S. Corn Belt.
As of early August, the Crop Watch fields had been set to outperform the past two years, especially for soybeans, but yields are now seen below final 2021 levels and close to the year-ago ones.
Most of the 11 Crop Watch locations last week received less than an inch of rain and some received none, though Kansas tallied 1 inch, eastern Iowa 2 inches and western Illinois 2.6 inches.
Several producers mentioned that rain is favorable for fall field work since the soils have become so dry, and any moisture that can be added to the bank for next year is welcome. However, most Crop Watch fields no longer benefit from rain as far as yield is concerned.
Most Crop Watch producers have either not yet started corn or bean harvesting or are in the beginning stages. Kansas corn was harvested on Sept. 7, and western Iowa beans were started Wednesday. Pod counts there are high, but seed size is small following the August dryness.
About 30% of the Crop Watch corn in southeast Illinois was completed on Sunday, and the early results would suggest downside to yield expectations rather than upside.
Warm weather starting mid-week will help crops continue toward maturity, and the weekend could usher in some wet weather for western Corn Belt states.
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
Crop Watch producers have been rating yield potential on a 1-to-5 scale with a score of 3 around farm average yield, 4 solidly above average and 5 among the best crops ever.
The 11-field, average corn yield rose to 3.66 from 3.61 last week, corn's first increase in six weeks. Quarter-point rises in western Iowa and Ohio explained the move, as producers there note last week's weather was helpful for kernel fill.
Average Crop Watch soybean yield rose slightly to 3.59 from 3.57 a week earlier after a quarter-point bump in North Dakota. The producer there says some of the seeds are larger than he expected, and there could be additional upside to the 2.5 yield score.
Consistent with last week's U.S. government estimates, Ohio is the bright spot of Crop Watch with the highest yield scores of both crops, including 4.75 for corn and 5 for beans.
The following are the states and counties of the 2023 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.
Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Editing by David Evans)
