IATA International Air Transport Association : Europe Briefing at Global Media Days November 2020

Europe Regional Briefing

Rafael Schvartzman

IATA Regional Vice President for Europe 25 November 2020

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European Traffic has slumped in 2020

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Air travel is in crisis across the globe, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) expected to fall by more than 66% this year.

European markets have been even more heavily impacted. The estimated RPK fall for Europe is 70% in 2020. Of the world aviation regions, only Africa (-72%) and the Middle East (-73%) are set to fare worse.

This chart shows how core Western European markets have been particularly impacted.

Russia and Turkey have fared better. In addition to following ICAO and EASA guidelines, both these countries kept their domestic markets open, and Turkey maintained its international routes.

Since the beginning of this crisis, Turkish Airlines and Pegasus were among the leading European carriers in numbers of flights performed despite the various lockdowns and border closures.

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Second wave devastated bookings in Europe again

Slight summer recovery was washed away by renewed restrictions

New COVID-19 cases in EU vs. moving average YoY change in net airline ticket sales

COVID-19 cases in the EU

New COVID-19 cases ('000)

YoY change in intra-EU ticket sales (moving avg)

150

								100
								50
0 Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	0
-20
-40
-60				-66%
-80
-100								-85%
	-102%
-120
YoY change in bookings (%)
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When the Schengen area initially opened up in May, this led to some optimism that at least regional traffic might rebound.

But the summer recovery was only ever partial, and you can see how renewed restrictions that came as the second COVID-19 wave hit Europe led bookings to collapse again.

We can connect the absence of a proper restart to a lack of harmonized measures and approach, border closures and quarantines deterring passenger demand.

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Source: IATA Economics based on data provided under license by FlightRadar 24. All rights reserved

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Air connectivity in Europe has been disrupted significantly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of unique city pairs connecting Europe within the region and to the rest of the world reduced by a factor of four. In April 2019, there were over 9,000 unique city pairs connecting Europe to the world.

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