Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)

For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, February 2, 2022	USDL-22-0153
Technical information:
Employment:	[phone] • [e-mail] • www.bls.gov/sae
Unemployment:	[phone] • [e-mail] • www.bls.gov/lau
Media contact:	[phone] • [e-mail]

METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT - DECEMBER 2021

Unemployment rates were lower in December than a year earlier in 375 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 13 areas, and unchanged in 1 area, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 141 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and 1 area had a rate of at least 10.0 percent.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 108 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 281 areas. The national unemployment rate in December was 3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted, down from 6.5 percent a year earlier.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly programs. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the national household survey estimates. These data pertain to individuals by where they reside. The employment data are from an establishment survey that measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. These data pertain to jobs on payrolls defined by where the establishments are located. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodologies used by these two programs, see the Technical Note.

Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December, Elkhart-Goshen, IN, had the lowest unemployment rate, 0.9 percent, closely followed by Bloomington, IN, and Columbus, IN, 1.0 percent each. El Centro, CA, had the highest rate, 14.7 percent. A total of 245 areas had December jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 3.7 percent, 135 areas had rates above it, and 9 areas had rates equal to that of the nation. (See table 1 and map 1.)

The largest over-the-year unemployment rate decrease in December occurred in Kahului-Wailuku- Lahaina, HI (-7.1 percentage points). Rates fell over the year by at least 4.0 percentage points in an additional 19 areas. No area had a jobless rate increase of more than 0.4 percentage point.

Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, Indianapolis-Carmel- Anderson, IN, had the lowest jobless rate in December, 1.2 percent, followed by Salt Lake City, UT, 1.3 percent. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, had the highest unemployment rate, 6.0 percent. Fifty large areas had over-the-year unemployment rate decreases, the largest of which was in Detroit-Warren- Dearborn, MI (-6.0 percentage points). The only positive rate difference relative to December 2020 was marginal (+0.1 percentage point in Jacksonville, FL).

Metropolitan Division Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 38 metropolitan divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In December 2021, Miami-Miami Beach- Kendall, FL, had the lowest division unemployment rate, 1.4 percent. New York-JerseyCity-White Plains, NY-NJ, and Los Angeles-LongBeach-Glendale, CA, had the highest rates among the divisions, 6.3 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively. (See table 2.)

In December, all 38 metropolitan divisions had over-the-year unemployment rate decreases. Detroit- Dearborn-Livonia, MI, had the largest rate decline (-7.3 percentage points).

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December, 108 metropolitan areas had over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment and

281 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year employment increases occurred in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (+427,300), Los Angeles-LongBeach-Anaheim, CA (+387,900), and Dallas-FortWorth-Arlington, TX (+196,900). The largest over-the-year percentage gains in employment occurred in Yuma, AZ (+10.1 percent), Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ (+9.1 percent), and Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL, and Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI (+9.0 percent each). (See table 3 and map 2.)

Over the year, nonfarm employment increased in 48 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, while employment was essentially unchanged in 3 areas. The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment in these large metropolitan areas occurred in Las Vegas-Henderson- Paradise, NV (+8.8 percent), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (+7.7 percent), and Austin-Round Rock, TX, and Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro,OR-WA (+7.3 percent each).

Metropolitan Division Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 27 metropolitan divisions and was essentially unchanged in 11 divisions over the year. The largest over-the-year increase in employment among the metropolitan divisions occurred in New York-JerseyCity-White Plains, NY-NJ (+338,300), followed by Los Angeles-LongBeach-Glendale, CA (+282,300), and Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL (+164,000). (See table 4.)

The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment occurred in San Francisco-RedwoodCity-South San Francisco, CA (+8.1 percent), Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (+7.6 percent), and Camden, NJ, and San Rafael, CA (+7.2 percent each).

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The Regional and State Unemployment 2021 Annual Averages news release is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, March 2, 2022, at 10:00 a.m. (ET). The State Employment and Unemployment news release for January 2022 is scheduled to be released on Monday, March 14, 2022, at 10:00 a.m. (ET). The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for January 2022 is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 18, 2022, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on December 2021

Establishment and Household Survey Data

Data collection for both surveys was affected by the pandemic. In the establishment survey, more data continued to be collected by web than in months prior to the pandemic. In the household survey, for the safety of both interviewers and respondents, in-person interviews were conducted only when telephone interviews could not be done.

For the December 2021 estimates of household employment and unemployment from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program, BLS continued to implement level-shift outliers in the employment and/or unemployment inputs to the state models, based on statistical evaluation of movements in each area's inputs. These level shifts preserved movements in the published estimates that the models otherwise would have discounted, without requiring changes to how the models create estimates at other points in the time series.

The "Frequently asked questions" document at www.bls.gov/covid19/employment-situation-covid19-faq-december-2021.htm extensively discusses the impact of a misclassification in the household survey on the national estimates for December 2021. Despite the considerable decline in its degree relative to prior months, this misclassification continued to be widespread geographically, which in turn affected the official LAUS estimates for December 2021.

Household data for substate areas are controlled to the employment and unemployment totals for their respective model-based areas. Hence, the preliminary December and revised November estimates for substate areas reflect the use of level-shift outliers, where implemented, in the inputs for their model- based control areas. The substate area estimates also were impacted by misclassification in the household survey, in proportion to the impacts of the misclassifications on the data for their model- based control areas.

Household data for Puerto Rico are not modeled, but rather are derived from a monthly household survey similar to the Current Population Survey. The Puerto Rico Department of Labor has reported a misclassification in its household survey similar in nature to the misclassification in the Current Population Survey, which has affected the local area data proportionally.

Upcoming Changes to Local Area Unemployment Statistics Data

Effective with the release of Regional and State Unemployment 2021 Annual Averages on March 2, 2022, the civilian labor force and unemployment data for census regions and divisions and all states, the District of Columbia, and the modeled substate areas presented in tables 1 and 2 of this news release will be revised from 2017 to 2021 to incorporate updated inputs, new population controls, and reestimation of models. The new population controls will reflect a "blended base," which is 2010 Census-based and controlled to elements from the 2020 Census and other sources. Subsequently, civilian labor force and unemployment estimates for all other metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions will be revised to reflect updated inputs and adjustment to the new statewide estimates. These revised estimates will be

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published in conjunction with the March 2022 State Employment and Unemployment news release on April 15, 2022.

Effective with the January 2022 State Employment and Unemployment news release on March 14, 2022, real-time implementation of level-shift outliers in the employment and/or unemployment inputs to the models will be discontinued. These real-time level shifts were introduced in response to the pandemic to preserve movements in the published estimates that the models otherwise would have discounted. BLS has determined that these interventions are no longer necessary on a real-time basis. Outlier detection and level-shift implementation will revert to retrospective activities conducted during annual processing.

Upcoming Changes to Current Employment Statistics Data

Effective with the release of January 2022 estimates on March 14, 2022, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program will implement a new generation small area model for state and metropolitan area series. The new model will replace the CES small domain model and variants of the Fay-Herriot model in estimating private sector series with insufficient sample for direct sample-based estimation. More information on the new model is detailed in the paper "Bayesian Nonparametric Joint Model for Point Estimates and Variances" by Julie Gershunskaya and Terrance Savitsky, available at www.bls.gov/osmr/research-papers/2019/st190020.htm.

Also effective with the release of January 2022 estimates, all nonfarm payroll employment estimates for states and areas presented in tables 3 and 4 of this news release will be adjusted to 2021 benchmark levels. Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2020 and seasonally adjusted data beginning with January 2017 are subject to revision. Some not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted series may be revised as far back as 1990.

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Technical Note

This news release presents civilian labor force and unemployment data from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program (tables 1 and 2) for 389 metropolitan statistical areas and metropolitan New England City and Town Areas (NECTAs), plus 7 areas in Puerto Rico. Estimates for 38 metropolitan and NECTA divisions also are presented. Nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program (tables 3 and 4) are provided for the same areas. State estimates were previously published in the news release State Employment and Unemployment, and are republished in this news release for ease of reference. The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative endeavors.

Civilian labor force and unemployment-from the LAUS program

Definitions. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the official national estimates obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. The LAUS program measures employed persons and unemployed persons on a place-of-residence basis. The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Employed persons are those who did any work at all for pay or profit in the reference week (typically the week including the 12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm, plus those not working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether or not paid, for such reasons as labor-management dispute, illness, or vacation. Unemployed persons are those who were not employed during the reference week (based on the definition above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the 4-week period ending with the reference week, and were currently available for work; persons on layoff expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force.

Method of estimation. Estimates for states, the District of Columbia, the Los Angeles-LongBeach-Glendale metropolitan division, and New York City are produced using time-series models with real-time benchmarking to national CPS totals. Model-based estimates are also produced for the following areas and their respective balances: the Chicago- Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL Metropolitan Division; Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area; Detroit- Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area; Miami- Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Metropolitan Division; and Seattle- Bellevue-Everett, WA Metropolitan Division. Modeling improves the statistical basis of the estimation for these areas and provides important tools for analysis, such as measures of errors and seasonally adjusted series. For all other substate

areas in this news release, estimates are prepared through indirect estimation procedures using a building-block approach. Estimates of employed persons, which are based largely on "place of work" estimates from the CES program, are adjusted to refer to place of residence as used in the CPS. Unemployment estimates are aggregates of persons previously employed in industries covered by state Unemployment Insurance (UI) laws and entrants to the labor force from the CPS. The substate estimates of employment and unemployment, which geographically exhaust the entire state, are adjusted proportionally to ensure that they add to the independently estimated model-based area totals. A detailed description of the estimation procedures is available from BLS upon request.

Annual revisions. Civilian labor force and unemployment data shown for the prior year reflect adjustments made at the beginning of each year, usually implemented with the issuance of January estimates. The adjusted model-based estimates typically reflect updated population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in other input data sources, and model re-estimation. All substate estimates then are re-estimated using updated inputs and adjusted to add to the revised model-based totals. In early 2021, a new generation of time-series models was implemented, resulting in the replacement of data back to the series beginnings.

Employment-from the CES program

Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current- month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.

For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases, a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined