Platts : Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results: UNICA Sugarcane Crush - Brazil – 2H December

Advance Estimates Suggest a 2H December Cane Crush of 10.02 Million MT in Brazil's Center-South - Likely 28.23% Sugar Mix for 2H December 2015: Analysts -

London, Sao Paulo - January 11, 2016

Platts Survey of Analysts

• Cane crush: 10.02 million metric tons (mt)
• Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 108.54 kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt)
• Sugar production: 289.6 kt
• Total ethanol production: 461 million liters (ltr)
• Hydrous ethanol production: 268.8 million ltr
• Anhydrous ethanol production: 192.2 million ltr
• Sugar mix: 28.23%
• Ethanol mix: 71.77%

Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South (CS) region of Brazil in the second half (2H) of December are expected to total 10.02 million mt, according to a Platts survey of analysts. Platts is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information and premier source of independent benchmark price references.

Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the second half (of December are expected to total 10.02 million mt, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

Analysts' expectations for the cane crush spanned 6.9 million-12.1 million mt. Brazilian sugarcane industry group UNICA usually releases its bi-weekly sugarcane harvest data a few working days after the reporting period ends.

A Platts poll of analysts shows a consensus forecast for total recoverable sugar (ATR) of 108.54 kg/mt, with a wider range of 107-112 kg/mt.

Analysts at Platts Kingsman, an agricultural analysis unit of Platts, forecast a slightly lower cane crush of 10.01 million mt and an ATR of 110.5 kg/mt, down 0.87 kg/mt from the first half of December.

Despite an estimated seven days of crush lost to rain over H2 December, if achieved, the 10.02 million mt of cane would be almost three times higher than crushed last year.

According to the Platts survey, the sugar mix in H2 December is expected to be 28.23%, down 5.1 percentage points on H1 December but up 1.65 percentage points on the year. Heavy rain last month has prompted dozens more mills than usual to continue crushing much later into the year in an attempt to maximize output.

By mid-December 182 mills were still in operation, according to UNICA. However, sources said that many mills that were still operating at the beginning of the H2 of December usually stop halfway due to the end of year holidays.

Wet conditions remain a hindrance to those mills that remain open, and market sources estimate around 20-30 mills should continue to operate until the end of January. According to Platts Kingsman analyst Claudiu Covrig the result will be a higher amount cana bisada to be carried over into the next season, and the shortest intercrop period in history. So-called 'cana bisada' refers to outstanding cane left in the fields to be crushed early next season.

Covrig said that in January-March mills would likely be strongly focused on ethanol production, probably accounting for around 80% of the mix.

In terms of ethanol production in H2 December, the average of analysts' expectations pointed to total output of 461 million liters, which would be adrop of 330 million liters from H1 December. This would take cumulative ethanol production since the start of the season on April 1 to 27.04 billion liters, up 4.35% from a year earlier.

Hydrous ethanol production is expected to be 268.8 million liters, up 94% year on year in H2 December, taking cumulative production to 16.55 billion liters, up 10%.

Soaring demand throughout the season after the government raised gasoline taxes and prices has boosted production rates, particularly of hydrous, used as a standalone biofuel at the pumps (E100).

Despite surging production stocks to be used in the intercrop season are expected to be tight.

Platts Kingsman expects hydrous stocks in CS Brazil on April 1, 2016 of roughly 800 million liters and anhydrous of less than 400 million liters, both less than the required for a month of consumption.

Anhydrous production is expected to reach 10.7 billion liters in 2015-16, down almost 1% on the year. Brazilian Gasoline C is a blend of gasoline A with 27% anhydrous ethanol.

Sources: Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results--UNICA Sugarcane Crush, Platts Kingsman, UNICA.

Visit the Platts website for more information on sugar and biofuels.

Contact Platts Communications to arrange interviews with Platts Kingsman sugar and ethanol analysts: Claudiu Covrig, Maria Nunez, Alessandra Rosete, and Beatriz Pupo; and Platt's sugar price assessments specialists: David Elward, Nicolle Monteiro de Castro and Darren Stetzel. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at this alerts sign-up link.

Editor's Note: In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil's Center-South region, also broken down into Sao Paulo and other states.



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