S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results: UNICA Sugarcane Crush -- 2016-17 Season 2H April

Advance estimates suggest a H2 April cane crush of 36.27 million mt in Brazil's Center-South; likely 42.38% sugar mix; ATR at 117.44 kg/mt of cane: analysts

Alessandra Rosete, Nicolle de Castro

Sao Paulo - May 09, 2016

Platts Survey of Analysts (H2 April)

• Cane crush: 36.27 million metric tons (mt)
• Total recoverable sugar (ATR):117.44 kilograms per metric ton (kg/mt)
• Sugar production: 1.726 million metric tons (mt)
• Total ethanol production: 1.447 billion liters (ltrs)
• Hydrous ethanol production:990 million ltrs
• Anhydrous ethanol production: 456.9 million ltrs
• Sugar mix: 42.38%
• Ethanol mix: 57.62%

The amount of sugarcane crushed in Brazil's key Center-South region in the second half of April is expected to total 36.27 million mt, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts.

The 2016-17 sugarcane season started April 1 in the CS, the largest sugarcane region in the world.

If realized, this volume would be a new record for the period. The previous record was in the 2013-14 season, when the crush came to 32.14 million mt.

Weather has been drier than average across the region, favoring intense harvesting, and more mills are expected to have come online.

Wider analyst expectations for the cane crush ranged from 33.7 million mt to 40 million mt.

Considering the average poll results for crushing, the accumulated volume in April is expected to be 72% higher than last year at 69.07 million mt, compared with the previous record of 51.6 million mt in the 2010-11 season.

Official production figures are expected to be released Tuesday by industry association UNICA.

Platts' poll of analysts forecast on average of just 1.6 days lost to rain in H2 April and a consensus for total recoverable sugar (ATR) at 117.44 kg/mt, with a wider range of 115-120 kg/mt.

Analysts at Kingsman, an agricultural analytics unit of S&P Global Platts, forecast cane crush of 36.5 million mt.

Kingsman senior analyst Claudiu Covrig said that a 5.7 kg/mt rise in ATR from the previous fortnight to 117.1 kg/mt is expected, supporting a higher allocation of sucrose to sugar production.

'The sugar mix was also sustained by sugar being more profitable than ethanol by as much as 420 points on some days in H2 April. We therefore estimate a recovery in the sugar mix of 1.7 percentage points on the fortnight to 42.7%,' Covrig said.

'This should have led to sugar production of about 1.739 million mt (a record high for the period) and ethanol output of around 1.466 billion liters (with hydrous ethanol taking the lion's share at 1.02 million cu m),' he added.

Industry analysts surveyed by Platts estimated the percentage of sugarcane put toward sugar production in H2 April at 42.38%, compared with 34.64% last season. Sugar production was expected to increase 64% to nearly 1.73 million mt.

The balance of the cane, or 57.62%, was expected to be directed to produce nearly 1.45 billion liters of ethanol, up 27% from same period last year.

Of this, roughly 68% of the volume (990 million liters) is expected to be hydrous ethanol and the balance (nearly 457 million liters) anhydrous.

Hydrous is used in Brazil as a standalone biofuel in flex-fuel vehicles, while anhydrous is mixed with gasoline at a proportion of 27%.

Visit thePlattsandPlatts Kingsmanwebsites for more information on sugar and biofuels.

ContactPlatts Communicationsto arrange interviews with Platts Kingsman sugar and ethanol analysts: Claudiu Covrig, Maria Nunez, Alessandra Rosete, and Beatriz Pupo; and Platt's sugar price assessments specialists: David Elward, Nicolle Monteiro de Castro and Darren Stetzel. If you would like to receive this on a regular basis, please select Agriculture at thisalerts sign-up link.

Editor's Note: In its bi-monthly cane harvest update, UNICA publishes a range of sugarcane harvest production metrics for Brazil's Center-South region, also broken down into São Paulo and other states.

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