The Fed meeting is looming. The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday. Despite pressure from Trump and the financial markets to lower rates, the Fed will certainly still opt for "patience". However, it is expected to publish its economic forecasts and provide more information on its next adjustments. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to lower its rates at its meeting at the end of July.
 
 
Source: CME Group, 06/17/2019

India, a new actor in the trade war. In May, the United States decided to end the customs benefits India had enjoyed since the 1970s under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program. New Delhi retaliated and increased its customs duties on about 30 American products on Sunday.

US/China customs duties. The United States Trade Representative's (USTR) office will hold a series of public hearings throughout the week on Trump's proposed tariffs on $300 billion worth of products imported from China. In the run-up to the public hearings, Tariffs Hurt the Heartland - an association of more than 600 American companies - sent a letter to the American president asking him to end the trade war with Beijing and eliminate punitive customs duties.

Washington/Tehran conflict. Last week, the United States accused Iran of attacking the two tankers in the Arabian Sea, thus rekindling tensions between Tehran and Washington. On Sunday, Saudi Arabia in turn accused Iran of damaging the two tankers. On the same day, the Iranian Parliament insinuated that the United States was behind this attack. He considers that this is a setback because of the ineffectiveness of economic sanctions and recalls that during the Second World War, "the United States targeted its own ships near Japanese territory in order to justify its hostility" towards Tokyo (according to the official Iranian press agency, Irna). Tensions are rising again and several Middle Eastern countries are calling for calm and dialogue.

Annual ECB Forum. From June 17 to 19, members of monetary institutions (Mario Draghi, Janet Yellen, Mark Carney, ...) and internationally renowned economists (such as Laurence Boone, Olivier Blanchard,...) are meeting in Sintra, Portugal, to discuss the health of the euro zone, stimulus measures and the succession of Mario Draghi.

Brexit saga. On Friday, Boris Johnson, the favorite candidate for Prime Minister, ruled out a further postponement of Brexit, even if no agreement is ready before the end of October. However, he reassures us that this is a possibility for which it is better to be prepared but that he "does not aim for a no-deal Brexit". Tomorrow, the Conservatives will proceed to the second round of elections, to decide between seven candidates to head the Party.

Some (bad) statistics. On Friday, industrial production in China reached its lowest level in 17 years. Retail sales grew by 0.5% in May (0.7% expected) and consumer confidence eroded in June (97.9 vs. 100 in May) according to the Michigan index.

In other news. The rating agency Fitch announced on Friday that it would maintain the sovereign rating "AA" and the stable outlook of the French government. The ECB will continue to monitor the effect of negative rates on bank profitability. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again lowered its outlook for oil demand growth and the OECD has revised its global growth forecast for this year downwards. EU Foreign Ministers meet in Luxembourg.