By Rapid and consistent weight and appetite loss, reduced risk of death from heart attack, diabetes or stroke, liver, heart and kidney protection - these are the promises of these magic drugs. Unsurprisingly, on a planet where a third of human beings are overweight, "semaglutides" have opened up a considerable market for themselves. This is despite the risks and side effects linked to any medicine.
In the USA, over 9 million people were already clients of these types of treatment in 2022, and prescription volumes for these drugs increased by 300% between Q1 2020 and Q4 2022. Bank of America predicts that 48 million Americans (around 1 in 7 people) will be taking these drugs by 2030, despite their prohibitive price (currently between $300 and $1,300 per month).
Victims of their own success
The results are indisputable: these treatments work, and their promises are kept. So, in a world governed by image and likes, the search for a dream body and cosmetic surgery, it didn't take long for semaglutides to move from the shelves of patients in real need (diabetics and the obese) to those in good health or slightly overweight who also want to benefit from the slimming effects of this beauty elixir, led by stars and influencers. Patients on anti-depressants, suffering from sudden weight gain, were also entitled to a prescription. And they all started injecting Ozempic.
Faced with the influx of demand, pharmacists' stocks dwindled and production plants came under pressure. The stakes are high: Eli Lilly's share price, for example, has gained 40% since the pharma company launched Mounjaro.
Novo Nordisk, for example, has announced that it will invest $6 billion by the end of 2029 (including $2.1 this year in France) to boost production. It has also reallocated certain capacities: it has temporarily reduced the supply of Victoza, its diabetes-only drug, to increase that of Ozempic. It has also tried to preserve its stocks by reducing the availability of initial doses of Wegovy. It won't be enough. The Danish giant has already warned healthcare practitioners that both will be in short supply until the end of 2024 , and that they should not prescribe the treatments to new patients unless there is a compelling reason to do so.
Government mobilization
The authorities in several countries, such as France, have followed suit, urging doctors to use alternatives to semaglutides whenever possible, with a view to re-serving diabetic patients already destabilized by the latter, and inviting pharmacists to be more vigilant.
Some governments have gone a step further. Belgium and the UK have completely banned the prescription of Ozempic and similar weight-loss drugs, except under certain conditions. Germany, for its part, is considering banning exports of the drug outside its borders.
The black market response
As is often the case, when official distribution is struggling, secondary distribution is organized. Unofficial channels for the resale of Ozempic and Wegovy boxes have sprung up, and counterfeit treatments have appeared on the Internet. Should we now expect to see late-night dwellers swapping doses of Wegovy on the dark streets?
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