A few months ago, he made short work of Ron de Santis, the governor of Florida. All that remained was for him to mow down Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, to give himself a boulevard to the party's official nomination as the Republican candidate.

And so it was (almost). The former president triumphed by a wide margin this week in the state his rival had previously governed. She had all the makings of a winner, I read yesterday in the FT. The right age, the right provenance, the right positioning. All she lacked was the aura that makes Trump a pop star among his flock. Few are those who still hold out much hope for Haley's presidential future, as her campaign's biggest donors have now abandoned her. However, she will fight to the bitter end, i.e. until March 5 (date of the primaries in some fifteen states, which should give a final trend) or theoretically until July, if she has the strength.

And after that? Donald Trump will (or won't) attend the many judicial summonses that will mark his progress until November. He will continue to attack Joe Biden on his age, his (alleged) disastrous economic management of the country, his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian and Russo-Ukrainian conflicts, his defense of NATO and European allies, his policy on South American immigration, and so on. We already know the song (a little too well).

It's not certain that the incumbent president can stand in the way. His popularity rating is at an all-time low (37%), and he is credited with 43% of voting intentions(The Economist), compared with 44% in January(Statista). Even if the polls (which show Joe Biden losing in the Swing States, the key states) are sometimes wrong, as they were in 2016 during the Clinton-Trump duel, it seems for the moment that Biden's chances rest on an unlikely combination of elements: a possible felony conviction of Trump, and, if applicable, a Republican invalidation of a "criminal" candidate.

Drawing by Amandine Victor