By After a sharp fall that started at the beginning of 2021, the single currency seems to be finally stagnating at around USD 0.98. A price that had not been reached for 20 years. However, no reversal in the trend is really expected. The numerous economic statistics recently published across the Atlantic leave little room for this scenario. Taken together, they have clearly argued for the continuation of a bellicose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve without pause or slowdown. This will increase or at least maintain the potential interest rate differential between the two world currencies. The single currency also remains impacted by its image as a "risky" currency, due to the pressures of a scenario of the main economic poles of the monetary union entering into recession and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
More broadly, the US has a head start in terms of rate hikes over most of the world's central banks. This is the main reason for the very bullish trend of the USDX - US dollar index. To go into some detail, since January 1, the Yen has lost 22% against the dollar, while the strong Swiss Franc has depreciated by 8.2% over the same period. Related to the Yuan and the Pound Sterling, they are down 11.7% and 16.3% respectively. Declines accentuated by the delicate economic situations of these two nations.
For all these reasons, the trend of the EUR/USD pair is unlikely to turn around anytime soon. The upcoming meetings of the ECB - October 27 - and the FED - November 2 - will be the determining factors for the future trend of the EUR/USD. A 0.75 point rate hike is expected on both dates.
Technically, the pair maintains a bearish momentum that will not be challenged as long as the EUR/USD remains below 1 (20-week moving average). Like the wrecking ball in Miley Cyrus' famous video clip, nothing seems to stop the rise of the dollar...
 conflit (1) (30).png)
