THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: Trump, Vote on Brexit, reassuring data

On Friday, markets were reassured by the words of the US Fed Chairman and by the publication of an employment report. The UK Parliament's final decision on the Brexit agreement is expected next week. Trump sticks to his positions and the shutdown continues.

The employment report and Jerome Powell's speech are reassuring. Job creation jumped last Friday in the United States (312K against 179K expected) and the average hourly wage rose, reassuring investors on the quality of the US economy. In addition, Jerome Powell said in his speech that the Fed would be "patient" with regard to the recovery and rates, and that it was willing "to change the course of monetary policy significantly if necessary".

The vote on Brexit in the British Parliament will take place mid January. Theresa May reported on the BBC yesterday that the Brexit vote would take place "around January 15". The Prime Minister was forced to postpone it in December due to a clear lack of majority. Secretary of State for Brexit, Kwasi Kwarteng, said he hoped the government would "win this vote".

Still no agreement to end the shutdown. Trump again announced this weekend (repeatedly on Twitter) the need to build the wall between Mexico and the United States, while the Democrats stand by their position and consider this solution "immoral". Meanwhile, the United States is bogged down in a third week of paralysis of the federal administrations.

In other news. U.S. officials travelled to Beijing on Monday for two days to negotiate trade relations. The German Finance Minister still expects a fiscal surplus for 2018, but is less optimistic. He warned that "the good old days when the state collected more taxes than expected is coming to an end", and the government has revised its growth forecasts for 2018 downwards (from 1.8% to 1.5%-1.6%).