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Talking Points
- EUR/CHF trades at 12-month high
- No longer a safe haven instrument?
EUR/CHF: Coming Back to Life?
I have not spent much time analyzing EUR/CHF over the past year or so. As a technician that relies heavily on techniques based upon symmetry it is difficult to have much confidence in chart levels, where there is still a lot of uncertainty over where the cross-traded on “SNB day” last year. That all said it has been over a year since then and the chart is slowly starting to repair itself with reliable price history. The move over the past couple of weeks has been an interesting one and on the face of it, it is one of the few charts out there that suggests things are not as bad some other markets would have us believe.
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That is the old way to look at it at least as the EUR/CHF used to be one of the clearest safe haven flows in global markets. Post the SNB decision I am not sure that really applies anymore. Maybe it is due to the lack of liquidity after last year’s event.The actions of the SNB have scared participants away or some other factor, but something seems to very different when you look at the price action in the cross versus equities or other so called pro-risk markets this past August and the first few weeks of the year. Maybe it is some big divergence, but I really just think it is doing its own thing and I am not reading too much into it.
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Technically, you could say that the cross has broken out from a pretty clear bullish consolidation pattern. With it through the last year’s 1.1050 high, the next upside attractions look to be around the first pattern objective around 1.1100 and then 1.1140. This is one of those funny levels as it is a 38% retracement of the 2013 – 2015 decline, but the fact that the 127% extension of the September – November decline is also there strengthens its credibility. A close back under 1.0980 would call into question the breakout, but only aggressive weakness under 1.0910 would turn the technical picture negative.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
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